Albania ratified UNFCCC in 1995 and has the status of a non-Annex I Party. Recently, Albania ratified the Kyoto Protocol as well. The Government of Albania has taken considerable steps toward the implementation of the UNFCCC requirements, such as preparing the First National Communication (FNC), a Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) and compiling the National Action lan (NAP) to address climate change, with UNDP/GEF support. The Second National Communication (SNC) to the UNFCCC was recently realized.
According to the FNC, Albania is a relatively low net emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), with relatively low carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, mainly due to the fact that over 90% of electricity is generated by hydro-sources. The energy sector contributes more than 60% of total emissions. Relatively high CO2 emissions on a per-GDP basis are explained mainly due to high energy intensity. Based on the predictions for future emissions, by 2020 total emissions will rise by more than five times. Although Albania has made no commitments to reduce GHG emissions, the NAP aims to curb their growth.
By becoming a party to the UNFCCC, Albania has accepted a number of commitments which include, inter alia, to:
- Develop, periodically update, publish and make national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol available to the Conference of the Parties of UNFCCC.
- Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change.
- Communicate information related to implementation of the UNFCCC to the CoP, in accordance with Article 12.
Albania’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC presents an assessment of Albania’s present situation with regard to climate change. It also provides scientific information and evidence as valuable input for policy-makers in long-term development planning for relevant sectors. The report shows that GHG emissions in Albania in 2000 totalled 7619.9 Gg. The main contributing sectors were Energy (44.0%), followed by Agriculture (27.1%) and Land Use Change and Forestry (21.6%). The share of land use change and forestry is being significantly reduced, while the shares of energy and waste are rising. Among energy subsectors, transport is the fastest growing sector.
GHG emissions per capita in Albania were 2.47 t CO2 equivalent, which is 4 to 5 times lower than the average of industrialized countries. This is due to generally low energy consumption, with more than 90% of electricity being produced by hydropower plants and most energy being consumed as electricity. Two development scenarios have been built for the abovementioned sectors: a baseline scenario, which considers the development of the sectors without mitigation efforts, and an abatement scenario, which considers the implementation of a set of prioritized measures, aiming to reach a reduction of GHG emissions of 48% by the year 2025.
The report highlights that adaptation measures are needed, together with legislative, regulatory, and institutional frameworks, to prevent negative effects of climate change and also to identify new methods and technologies. Climate change is expected to bring significant effects in all sectors analysed, with energy being the most sensitive one. Rising temperatures, changes in the amount of precipitation, and variation in humidity, wind patterns and the number of annual sunny days could affect both consumption and production of energy.
National policies and measures to limit GHG emissions
The first GHG emission abatement analysis for Albania was performed in the frame of Albania’s FNC. This analysis consisted of developing two GHG scenarios: a GHG baseline scenario and a GHG abatement scenario. The development of both scenarios was made by utilizing a number of assumptions based on the macro-economic projections of the country as a whole, as well as in the development plans of the economic sectors taken in particular.
The GHG abatement measures and technology options identified under Albania’s FNC have undergone a prioritization process through Albania’s TNA exercise carried out under the Top-Up Phase of the Climate Change Enabling Activities. The TNA is a complex process. It is a continuation of the work already carried out or identified or recommended under Albania’s FNC and through other activities to enhance technology transfer.
This assessment of technology needs has been made through a sector-by-sector approach, starting with the energy sector, which, according to Albania’s FNC, makes the most significant contribution o the overall GHG emissions inventory. The assessment also covers other sectors such as LULUCF, agriculture, waste management and industrial processes.
Many new strategies and actions plans have recently been adopted by the Government of Albania that will affect GHG abatement in Albania, and therefore both scenarios (baseline and abatement) need to be updated and improved. Albania has addressed the mitigation and adaptation measures through the National Climate Change Strategy, which consists of a set of priorities for action in order to integrate climate change concerns into other economic development plans. This strategy is elaborated in the frame of Albania’s First National Communication. The abatement scenario of emissions foresees the introduction and implementation of different options mainly focused on energy saving and energy efficiency measures. A basket of 25 GHG mitigation measures for the energy and transport sector is proposed in the frame of this study, which are then analysed in terms of cost and benefit. In terms of resource mobilization, the package of project ideas was developed under the TNA exercise. Two projects have been sent to GEF for funding and seem to be successful (one is a project on Market Transformation for Solar Thermal Water Heating in Albania). GEF has recently approved a Project Development Facility (PDF B) and the pipeline entry of the full project. Another project on building adaptive capacities for representative vulnerable systems is underway. The rest of the project idea notes serve as good background for the potential projects to be carried out under the CDM.
The National Energy Strategy (NES) was drafted and approved in June 2003 by the Government of Albania, according to Decision of the Council of Ministers, No. 424, dated June 26, 2003. The NES, which was prepared as an integral part of the National Strategy for Social and Economic Development (NSSED), has already integrated many findings and outputs from Albania’s FNC and TNA. The Strategy for the Development of the Energy Sector is a document that analyses and recommends changes by 2015 that must be undertaken in Albania to increase the security of the energy supply and the optimization of the energy resources to meet the local demand and achieve sustainable development.
The policy objectives and strategies for forest development are:
• Ensure the territorial integrity, ecology and biodiversity of forests and pastures.
• Promote and support sustainable management of forest resources and pastures.
• Improvement and strengthening of ties with the market economy.
• Involvement of local stakeholders and users in conservation and forestry development.
• Institutional and legal reform of the forest service at national and local level.
• Establishment of an Environmental Fund for initial funding to ensure investment in environmental projects. Environmental resource management through a clear legal framework, implemented through a permit system to monitor and better control protected areas, protection of flora and fauna, water resources and rights to the waters (especially a planning system and strengthening waterbasin authorities).
Protection of forests includes promotion of forest management and conservation of natural pastures in order to ensure biodiversity and ecotourism development; rehabilitation of degraded forests to return the relevant forest stations to optimal condition; transfer of forests and pastures to local government units; and measures for illegal logging.
Land protection: increase by 5% by 2010 the level of forest coverage in the areas most seriously affected in whole; ban all unlicensed extraction of river gravel; and strict restrictions imposed on licensed excavations; maintain and increase biodiversity; further increase of the surface of protected areas in 15% of the territory by the year 2014 (ensuring representation of all ecosystems and implementing elements of Pan-European Ecological Network activities to support objectives and species action plans); preparation of management plans for protected areas within the existing priorities for 2011.
The Albanian Government became part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995 and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2004, so acknowledging the importance of climate change and the need to take effective measures to mitigate its consequences.
Levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Albania are about four to five times lower than average international levels. This is because a high percentage of electricity is produced by hydropower, but also because energy consumption per person is low and industrial productivity has continued to fall.
Direct Greenhouse Gas Emissions
This section provides an overview of GHG emissions for the period 1990-2000. The figures below show emissions of the most important GHGs, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the six main economic sectors, recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC): energy, including all types of activity related to extraction, transportation, processing and combustion of fossil fuels; industrial processes; solvent and other product use; agriculture; land-use change and forestry; and waste.
The main contributor of CH4 emissions is agriculture (74-77 %), followed by waste (8-22 %) and energy (5-20%). The main contributor of CO2 is the energy sector (44–79 %) followed by land-use change and forestry which contributed 33 % in 1990 but just 16 % in 2000. Industrial processes contributed 2.6-4.9 % while CO2 emissions from the waste, solvents and agriculture sectors were not significant. Emissions per person have increased, reflecting increased energy consumption resulting from increased standards of living, while emissions per US$1 000 of GDP have fallen.
Total greenhouse gas emission scenarios
Climate change policy is developed through national communications that deal separately with mitigation of GHG emissions and adaptation to climate change. Analysis has been carried out for each economic sector, scenarios for the future have been constructed, and measures have been proposed for mitigating and adapting to expected climate change.
Two scenarios have been constructed for all the analyzed sectors: the baseline scenario and the abatement scenario. The former considers the development of sectors without taking account of the effect of climate change, while the latter assumes implementation of a set of prioritised measures aimed at reducing emissions by 48 % by 2025 compared with the baseline scenario.
The main political documents that address climate change issues are:
• National Strategy for Development and Integration (2007-2013)
• Intersectorial Environmental Strategy 2007-2013
• First National Communication for UNFCCC
• Second National Communication for UNFCCC
• Policy document of Carbon Financing in Albania, 2009
• Plan of action for the implementation of the Policy Document for Carbon Financing in Albania
According to the Intersectorial Environment Strategy, the main focus for climate change is to improve energy efficiency in all sectors in order to reduce the demand for power and the level of emissions. The strategy also requires a joint programme of public awareness and enforcement of relevant standards – such as for the insulation of buildings.
The strongest instrument for reducing the amount of gases emitted is the integration of the GHG emissions reduction target in the decision-making process at a variety of levels:
• government – in particular strategies for energy, the economy and transportation should include steps to limit the GHG emissions;
• industry and trade – should be encouraged to be efficient from the standpoint of energy consumption and technology used in order to reduce the level of emissions;
• individuals – must be convinced to see energy efficiency as a criterion in their actions and purchases.
These measures need to be accompanied by changes in the legal framework and the introduction of economic instruments to promote the reduction of GHG emissions and the use of renewable energy sources.
The measures envisaged by the Intersectorial Environmental Strategy to mitigate climate change include:
Change of legal basis:
- legal framework for energy efficiency in new buildings;
- legal framework for energy efficiency of household equipment .
Establishment of economic incentives:
- setting the carbon tax;
- creation of a grants or subsidy scheme for energy efficiency.
Reduce GHGs released by transport and energy:
- review of the transport strategy in accordance with the provisions of the strategic environmental assessment for the improvement of road transport infrastructure;
- introduction of vehicles with low levels of emissions;
- review the strategy for the energy sector in accordance with the provisions of the strategic environmental assessment to enable the promotion of renewable energy sources.
Awareness campaign to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases:
- promotion of energy efficiency in industry;
- improvement of thermal insulation and reducing unnecessary use of power for heating or cooling systems in houses;
- promotion of solar heating systems.
The Republic of Armenia ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002.
The main GHG is carbon dioxide. In 2000, in the total GHG emissions, without “Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)” sector, the share of carbon dioxide amounted to 62.8%, methane - 34.2% and nitrous oxide - 3%. Carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 declined by 81% compared to the 1990 level, methane – by 38% and nitrous oxide - by 42% (Table ES-1). In 2000, the total GHG emissions reduced by 80% compared to the baseline (1990). The sharp decline in emissions is due to the energy and economic crisis of 1992-1995, and the following significant changes in the economy - decline in the share of industrial production and increase in the share of non-production sectors, as well as prevalence of natural gas consumption.
The “Energy” sector accounts for the major part of the total GHG emissions in 1990-2006 (Table ES-2). However, the share of the “Energy” sector emissions reduced in the mentioned period – from 91% in 1990 to 64.7% in 2006 (70% in 2000). In the same period, the “Agriculture” sector share increased from 4% to 17.9% (16.5% in 2000), the “Waste” sector share grew from 2.3% to 7.9% accordingly (in 2000 - 11%) and “Industrial processes” sector - from 2.5% to 5% (in 2000 - 2.4%). Rapid changes in emission/removals balance have taken place in the “LULUCF” sector: from -736 Gg in 1990 to +1563.6 Gg in 2000, which is mainly due to an increase in the volume of forest logging and loss of quality of arable lands and meadows.
The total emissions of indirect GHG (NOX, CO, NMVOC) and SO2 shrunk by 76% in 1990-2006 (from 406 Gg to 95 Gg). This reduction in emissions is also a result of the above-mentioned circumstances. GHG emissions per capita (CO2 eq) have dropped from 6.9 tons in 1990 to 1.6 tons in 2000 with slight growth to 2.0 tons in 2006.
Policy and measures to mitigate climate change
Armenia's climate change policy is formulated within the framework of the status of the country under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. As a non-Annex I Party to the UNFCCC, Armenia does not have quantitative commitments for reducing GHG emissions. However, acknowledging and supporting the objective of the Convention, as well as taking into account that reduction in GHG emissions is in line with the economic, energy and environmental objectives of the country, Armenia has passed a number of laws and is implementing national and sectoral development programs, which contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions. At the same time, due to mitigation projects implemented through the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, Armenia has a certain potential for emissions reduction transfer.
Armenia has passed several laws and Government decrees, which define policies in areas relevant to climate change mitigation. Some of the key ones include:
• Law on atmospheric air protection (1994)
• Law on energy (2001)
• Law on energy saving and renewable energy (2004)
• Forest Code (2005)
• Government decree on approval of the order on examination of norms of maximum permissible emissions design documents of organizations with stationary sources of atmospheric air polluting emissions and on granting emission permits (2008).
• Government decree on approval of maximum permissible concentration of air polluting substances in settlements and maximum permissible norms of hazardous substances in emissions from vehicles used in the Republic of Armenia (2006).
• Government decrees on implementation of projects within the framework of the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006).
• Government decree on approval of the action plan to meet the commitments of the Republic of Armenia under a number of environmental conventions (2004).
• Government decree on norms and permits of maximum permissible emissions of atmospheric air polluting substances and maximum permissible level of harmful physical impact (1999).
• Sustainable Development Program (2008)
• Second National Environmental Action Plan (2008)
Measures contributing to GHG reduction by sectors are planned in the following programs:
Energy Sector Development Strategy in the Context of Economic Development of Armenia (2005). The strategy covers the period until 2025 and aims at addressing the following issues: contribute to sustainable economic development of Armenia and ensure energy security, including the classification of imported and local energy reserves; maximum utilization of renewable and nontraditional sources of energy; promotion to energy saving; and environmentally friendly energy supply in line with the international commitments of Armenia. The strategy includes projected energy consumption indicators in the sectors of economy and the list of projects for development of electrical energy, gas supply and heat supply sectors by implementation periods.
Program of Actions of the Ministry of Energy based on the Provisions of the National Security Strategy (2007). The program is based on the provisions of the energy strategy and plans the following energy capacity exploitations and measures by 2025: construction of new HPPs with 540 MW capacity (including 260 MW from small HPPs); construction of wind turbines with 200 MW capacity; modernization of the currently operational two TPPs by gas turbine installations with a total capacity of 648 MW; construction of 1000 MW new energy block in the Armenian nuclear power plant (NPP); modernization of power transmission and distribution networks in order to reduce losses; construction of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline; restoration of underground storage facilities for natural gas with the volume of 150 million cubic meters; restoration of heat supply with maximum use of geothermal, biogas, solar and other renewable energy sources; and wide scale introduction of sustainable measures ensuring energy saving.
National Program for Energy Saving and Renewable Energy (2007). The program provides assessment of the energy saving potential in power supply, heat supply and gas supply systems in the industrial production, transportation, housing and public sectors, as well as assessment of the potential for renewable energy and measures for effective exploitation of the energy saving potential.
Restoration, modernization and expansion of Armenia's gas supply system. The measures implemented contribute to significant reduction of natural gas (methane) leakages at present and in the future. One of the projects of “ArmRosgasprom” CJSC to reduce methane leakages in gas distribution system is developed under the CDM.
Tariff policy. Armenia carries out an energy tariff policy which contributes to the development of renewable energy and creation of favorable conditions for attracting investments in the sector. Privileged tariffs and purchase guarantee are defined for electricity produced by small HPPs, wind turbines and biogas facilities and for electricity produced in combined production systems based on useful heat demand.
The Action Plan for Reducing Emissions of Hazardous Substances from Vehicles (2005). The 26 measures of the program aim to record emissions, improve transport traffic and transportation flows, develop public transportation (including electrical means of transportation), and promote the use of clean engine fuels. The measures are planned for the period of 2005-2013.
Yerevan Master Plan (2006-2020). The master plan aims to reduce emissions from vehicles by 20% until 2020 through development of electrical transportation, implementation of the new transportation scheme for the city and application of neutralizers. The increase in the share of natural gas, as engine fuel, by up to 45% and the use of biogas after 2015, as well as improvement of roads will contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions from vehicles.
Since 2008, projects are implemented for extraction of biogas from large landfills of municipal solid waste, as well as reconstruction and modernization of wastewater treatment plants in Yerevan and cities near Lake Sevan. At the same time, the WB Armenia office conducts a consultative study on municipal solid waste management in Yerevan through public private partnership.
National Forest Policy and Strategy (2004) and National Forest Program (2005). The main objectives of the Programs are to restore the degraded forest ecosystems, their sustainable use and to ensure the development of useful characteristics of forests. For 2009-2020, the following are planned: restoration of degraded forest ecosystems on 2-2.5 thousand hectares, forest plantation/ afforestation on 5-5.5 thousand hectares, creation of protective forest zones on 0.6-0.65 thousand hectares.
Implementation of the CDM under the Kyoto Protocol As of 2008, the CDM Designated National Authority of Armenia has approved seven CDM projects, four of which are registered by the CDM Executive Board.
Climate change impacts, vulnerability assessment and adaptation
According to the analysis of recorded hydro-meteorological data, the average annual temperature increased in the last 80 years by 0.85°C, and the annual precipitations, reduced by 6% compared
to the average of the 1961-1990 baseline period. Since 1994, the changes of annual air temperatures were only positive. The geographical distribution of changes to annual precipitation in Armenia is very uneven - the north-eastern and central (Ararat valley) regions have become more arid, while the southern and north-western areas and Lake Sevan basin have had a significant increase in precipitation during the last 70 years. In the last decades (1975-2005), also an increase in the severity and frequency of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena is recorded in Armenia. In the last 30 years, the total number of dangerous hydro-meteorological phenomena has increased by 1.2 cases and in the last 20 years - by 1.8 cases annually.
Climate change scenarios have been developed for Armenia through application of the PRECIS
model. According to the model, an increase in annual temperatures by 1°C by 2030, 2°C by 2070, 4°C by 2100, and a decrease in atmospheric precipitations - correspondingly by 3%, 6% and 9% are forecasted for Armenia. The forecasted changes to temperatures and precipitation will have both positive, and negative deviations by seasons and in comparison to the norms for Armenia's regions.
River flow. In the case of the forecasted climate change, river flow in Armenia will reduce by 6.7%
by 2030, 14.5% by 2070 and 24.4% by 2100 compared to the baseline period of 1961-1990.
Snow cover. The forecasted volume of precipitations in the form of snow in the major part of Armenia will reduce by 7-11% by 2030, 16-20% by 2070 and 20-40% by 2100 compared to the norm for 1961-1990. The biggest changes will be recorded in altitudes of 1700-1800 meters and
higher, which are the main areas of river flow formation.
Lake Sevan. The forecasted climate change will result in significant changes to the water balance
of Lake Sevan, which will have severe negative consequences for the Lake. As a result of the projected changes to the water balance elements in Armenia, river flow will reduce by 0.6 billion cubic meters by 2030, 1.2 billion cubic meters by 2070 and 1.8 billion cubic meters by 2100.
In order to mitigate the consequences of climate change on water resources and adapt the economy to the new natural conditions, it is proposed to implement measures for accurate assessment of
water reserves, as well as apply certain technological and legal-organizational measures.
Accurate assessment of water reserves. (1) refurbishing hydrological observation stations with modern equipment and streamlining the network of hydrological observation stations; (2) restarting
the measurements and monitoring of floods, the water layer in the snow and other characteristics
of snow cover; (3) restarting the monitoring of underground waters; (4) preparing new data book
on water resources; (5) developing water and water system balances for individual river basins;
(6) developing modern technologies for transforming the actual flow to natural flow.
Technological. (1) regulation of river flow by increasing the volumes of the existing water reservoirs or constructing new water reservoirs; (2) reduction of losses in the irrigation and drinking household water supply system through repairs of the systems and pipelines; (3) accumulation of
moisture (water) in irrigated fields through storage of snow or snow melt water; (4) replenishment of moisture through early spring sowing of crops in rows, deepening irrigation ditches and using
polyethylene covers; (5) use of advanced agrotechnical measures and irrigation methods (drip subsurface irrigation, pivot and sprinkler irrigation, subsurface drip-pipe and mole irrigation).
Legal-organizational measures. (1) development of procedures for taking into account the climate
change factors during the assessment of water demand; (2) introduction of legal, economic and
administrative incentives for reducing leakages from drinking water and irrigation water systems;
(3) introduction of water saving technologies and initiation of legislative changes to promote water
saving; (4) development of procedures for defining the priorities of water use by priority sectors considering the climate change impacts in river basin management plans.
Armenia is one of the very high risk countries for farming due to the fragmented mountainous terrain, active exogene processes, limited land resources (0.14 hectares arable land per capita) and inadequate level of moisture. In addition, as a result of the non-rational use of land resources, around 80% of land plots are characterized by desertification processes and various levels of land degradation. Agriculture suffers from huge losses due to dangerous climatic phenomena, the frequency and duration of which have increased during the last decades. According to the assessments conducted, climate change in Armenia will further aggravate the situation by 2030: due to higher temperature and reduced precipitation the areas needing irrigation will expand, increased evaporation from the soil will result in the secondary salination of land plots, heavy rains and floods will further worsen water induced erosion, and droughts and hot dry winds will further aggravate wind erosion of lands.
As a result of climate change, soil humidity in Armenia will reduce by 10-30%, moisture availability for various crops will decline by 7-13%, and the water deficit of land will increase by 25-30%. As a result, the rain-fed farming in pre-mountainous and lower mountainous areas of Armenia will become more vulnerable.
According to climate change scenarios by 2030, a decline of 8-14% in the yields of the main agriculture crops is forecasted (9-13% for cereals, 7-14% for vegetables, 8-10% for potato and 5-8% for fruits). A decrease of 4-10% is forecasted for the total pasture area and its yields, including 19-22% in the most valuable pastures of the subalpine and alpine zones. A 7-10% decrease in the
yields of grasslands is possible, which, in its turn, will result in lower levels of fodder production.
In order to mitigate the consequences of climate change, it is necessary to implement the following
adaptation measures: (1) select and introduce more drought- and heat-resistant species and hybrids, including protect and spread traditional local species with those characteristics; (2) expand the use of high mountainous pastures and reduce their relative loads; (3) change the norms of fertilizer application; (4) shift the farming zone to areas with more moisture; (5) apply water saving irrigation technologies; (6) introduce crop species resistant to diseases and pests; (7) implement hail and flood protection measures; (8) ensure early warning on extreme hydro-meteorological events; (9) revise the vaccination practice of livestock.
Biological diversity and natural ecosystems
Climate change will result in the expansion of desert, semi desert and arid sparse forest areas, at the expense of the vertical shift of their upper limits. Further, upward shift of steppe ecosystems by 250-300 m will occur and the areas of meadow ecosystems will shrink. As a result, significant
changes in composition and structure of ecosystems will take place. More than 17,000 hectares of forest (5-5.5%) may disappear due to unfavorable conditions for forest growth. Worsening sanitary conditions, mass outbreaks of diseases and pests and larger risk of forest fires will have a negative impact on forest ecosystems.
In order to mitigate the consequences of climate change on natural ecosystems, it is necessary to
implement the following measures: (1) ensure grazing norms and rules in grass systems used as pastures and grasslands; (2) properly zone the new specially protected areas of nature by expanding the zone upwards by 200-250 m; (3) restore the degraded forest ecosystems - reforest 5000 hectares of degraded forest areas and create 600 hectares of agricultural forest protection zone during the period of 2009-2020; (4) in order to control the mass development of forest pests and diseases, organize regular forest phytosanitary control studies and implement integrated measures, such as treating forests from the air.
Settlements and infrastructures
Exogene and various weather extreme events are characteristic to Armenia. Those phenomena
cause huge damages to Armenia's population, economy and infrastructures. More than 2500 landslide-prone areas have been identified in the country with a total surface of 1221 km² (4.1% of that total territory of the country). Besides, 233 out of the total 931 communities in Armenia have suffered damages from landslides; in more than 100 of the damaged communities landslides are especially active and have caused damages to hundreds of residential houses, communication lines and vital objects, about 3.2% of the motorways network, and around 0.5% of the railway network have suffered damages as well.
Areas prone to mudflows in Armenia are quite numerous. The damage caused by mudflows in the country in 1994-2007 amounts to more than 5.6 billion drams (around USD 17.5 million), and
by floodings - more than 13 billion drams (around USD 41 million). The following preventive measures are proposed to be taken to reduce the risks of the mentioned phenomena:
• Landslides: (1) Design and construct dams and reservoirs protecting settlements and infrastructures; (2) regularly clean the river beds, widen or heighten the banks and their reinforcement; (3) create water collection and water drainage constructions or improve the existing ones; (4) plant forest and vegetation on the slopes, as well as terrace, fence or net; (5) strictly control and regulate irregular irrigation and site development licenses.
• Mudflows, flood and spring inundations: (1) Conduct phyto-melioration in river basins of rivers
causing mudflows and floods, and construct antimudflow and anti-flood barriers; (2) Install automatic warning observation points and mudflow observation points on rivers; (3) develop modern methods of short-term and longterm forecasting of floods, mudflows and spring inundations; (4) revitalize snow packs measurement activities using contemporary methods development.
Climatic conditions in the most densely populated areas of Armenia are very tense in July-August,
the population suffers from the heat stress discomfort. Climate warming will further increase the
risk of heat and sun strokes. More frequent heat waves are also expected, which could further aggravate the stress situation related to heat discomfort. As a result of climate change, it is expected to have higher risks of vector-born diseases: cholera, plague, tularemia, malaria, acute intestinal infections and a number of other diseases. Parallel to climate change, the risks of Crimean-Congo fever, West Nile fever, Sindis fever and Tyagin fever will emerge. Those diseases are recorded in neighboring countries and depending on the expansion of the aerials and infiltration of pathogene and their main carriers into Armenia, emergence of those diseases can be expected
In order to prevent and mitigate the consequences of climate change for population's health, comprehensive social, behavioral, sanitary, preventive and administrative measures are proposed.
The Republic of Azerbaijan ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1995. In order to facilitate the implementation of the Convention, a State Commission on Climate Change was established in 1997 by a resolution of the President. The Commission was composed of representatives of all related institutions and ministries. In 2000 the Kyoto Protocol was ratified.
Emissions in 2005 constituted 70.6% of the 1990 baseline level. Azerbaijani expert projections suggested that emissions would reach the baseline level in 2007-2008. The main sources of CO2 emissions in Azerbaijan are the energy and industrial sectors. The principal carbon sinks are represented by the agriculture and forestry sectors, as well as land use change.
CO2 emissions in the Energy sector come from the burning of fuel including in the production of energy, oil and gas extraction, transport, and human settlements. CO2 emissions from stationary sources equated to 45120 Gt in 1990, falling to 31375 Gt by 2005. Emissions from human settlements constituted 114% of the baseline year level, while 76.4% came from energy production and 71.9% from industry.
The level of CO2 emissions in the transport sector changed from 4341 Gt in 1990 to 3632 Gt in
2005. Aviation and vehicles contributed the highest gains in emissions; domestic aviation accounted
for 302 Gt in 2005.
In the industrial operations and materials use sector, the biggest sources of CO2 emissions have been mineral materials production and metallurgy. After a period of decline in the metallurgical sector, it started to grow again after 2004. The production of lime nearly ceased altogether but has resumed in recent years. CO2 emissions from cement production accounted for 478 Gt in 1990 and 391 Gt in 2005.
The emissions from international aviation and international shipping that are part of the International bunker were not included in the national cadastre. Emissions from these sources increased from 431 Gt and 31 Gt in 1990 to 1375 Gt and 47 Gt in 2005. The increase in emissions in aviation is caused by the broadening of international relations.
CO2 sinks in Azerbaijan are mainly represented by forests. Sinks also appear as a result of changing land use. Here the statistics varied only slightly over time (3438 Gt in 1990, 3769 Gt in 2005). CH4 is emitted by nearly all sectors of the economy, but increased mostly in the agricultural sector due to fermentation and manure, and in the wastes sector due to human settlements. Thus, in 2005 the agricultural sector share of CH4 increase was 121.6% (4265 Gt CO2 eq in the baseline year). In total, CH4 emissions accounted for 20036 Gt CO2 eq in 1990 in 1990 and 14433 Gt CO2 eq in 2005.
N2O emissions declined in comparison with the baseline year. N2O emissions in 2005 reduced by 64% from 992 GtCO2 eq in 1990. Emissions of the halogen substances perfluorocarbon, hydrofluorocarbon and sulfur hexafluoride are not found at significant levels in Azerbaijan.
POLICY AND ACTIONS
The relatively high socio-economic indicators of the Republic of Azerbaijan during the Soviet era began to fall in 1990, when many economic ties were broken. The economy began to revive in 1999 and the increase in oil and gas exploration brought about high economic growth. Growth in oil exports will continue to drive the country’s economic development.
For the past five years one of the main factors that ensured dynamic development of the country were the allocation of oil revenues to the non-oil sectors, infrastructure development projects and the push for balanced development of the various regions. Unfortunately the growth in oil and gas extraction and the increased demand for power also results in greater GHG emissions.
A number of international and regional programmes were implemented in Azerbaijan towards raising the awareness of climate change and capacity-building toward implementation of projects aimed at GHG reduction. In 2005 the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources was declared by presidential resolution as the National Focal Point for enhancing participation of Azerbaijan in Cleaner Development Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol.
As most energy in Azerbaijan is generated from burning hydrocarbons, a reduction in emissions might be possible through gains in efficiency, energy saving, transfer from liquid fuel to gas and the use of alternative energy sources. The country also depends on natural gas, fuel oil and water resources. The Azerbaijan electric energy system is comprised of 10 TESs and 6 HESs. Of the total generated energy the share of TESs constitutes 89%, while 10% is contributed by HESs and only 1% is made up of renewable energy sources. Between 2001 and 2007 the amount of fuel used for generation of one kWt per hour of energy was reduced from 415 gr of coal equivalent (CE) to 355 gr of coal or CE. In 2007 the total amount of natural gas and fuel oil used for generation of electric power was 4.5 billion cubic meters and 1.2 million tons, respectively. In 2007, 352.8 gr of CE was used for generation of 1 kWT hour of energy and 183.6 kg of CE was required for generation of 1 Kcal of thermal energy.
Azerbaijan has high potential for alternative energy generation. The potential of wind and small hydroelectric stations in the Absheron Peninsula, along the banks of the Kura River, as well as in the Nakhchivan Republic were estimated at 2070 MWt and 5 billion kWT per hour, respectively. The output of existing hydroelectric stations is 1020 MWt, and the country’s 11 small hydroelectric stations generate 27.7 MWt. The 5 hydroelectric stations currently being constructed will generate a total of 572 MWt. According to the plan prepared by the Ministry of Industry and Energy, the construction of 300 small hydroelectric stations is envisioned. Five will have been constructed by 2012.
Around the world, the highest priority is given to alternative energy sources as a solution to energy insecurity, environment pollution, climate change and other problems. To this end, the State Programme on the Use of Alternative and Renewable Energy Sources was signed by the President of Azerbaijan in 2004. After the Programme was signed, negotiations were initiated with various international organizations and developed countries. Following negotiations with the Republic of South Korea, an agreement was reached on the construction of a 60 MWt wind electric station in Gobustan. Azerbaijan has been extracting oil and gas for industrial purposes for more than 160 years, and extraction of oil has increased over the past 5 years. The capacity of the country’s oil refinery is about 20 million tons. However, since this plant has become obsolete, the level of oil production has slumped; most crude oil is now exported to foreign countries.
Cement production is worthy of attention as a source of GHG; at present some 400 thousand tons are produced per year. Cleaner production and burning processes can be employed to reduce emissions. A second cement plant is now being constructed, which will use a cleaner dry process of production. The amount of emissions from the production of lime, sodium, metal, steel and aluminum is still low. However, as a result of development in these areas, the level of carbon gas emissions will likely increase.
Since the metallurgy, petro-chemical and chemical industries are still in crisis, no increase in their emissions is expected in the immediate future. In 2005, GHG emissions generated by domestic animals equated to about 5.1 million tons in CO2 eq. About 0.5 tons of this amount come from manure. At present a uniform project proposal uniting a number of farming facilities on the production of biogas from manure was developed by the Ministry of Agriculture. In addition, GHG emissions can also be reduced as a result of processing dry wastes generated from agricultural plants.
Wastes have always posed a critical environmental problem. Ongoing economic development,
urbanization and population growth have exacerbated the situation. According to estimates, the amount of wastes will reach 13 million tons in 2025. At present there are 200 landfills in Azerbaijan. About 1.5 million tons of municipal waste is generated per annum, 50% of which comes from Baku and its environs. A number of waste management improvement projects are being implemented. A contract has been signed with a Japanese company Mitsui on the construction of a waste incineration plant near the Balakhani landfill. In addition to the solid waste problem, the issue of methane gas from wastewater remains to be addressed.
The National Programme on the Rehabilitation and Expansion of Forests of 18 February 2003 calls for the reforestation of 69000 hectares. This would include 44700 hectares of newly planted forest, taking natural recovery actions on 25000 hectares, planting 14300 hectares of greenbelt along new highways and railways, in lowlands, around water ponds and along coastal areas. Three million manats have been allocated by decree of the President for forest rehabilitation and forestation projects.
To enhance effectiveness of actions under CDM projects prescribed by the Kyoto Protocol, amendments and additions to environmental legislation have been prepared and submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers. The Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources has signed CDM cooperation agreements with Denmark and Germany, and such agreements with other countries are pending. Since the Kyoto Protocol took effect in 2005, interest in CDM projects has risen in Azerbaijan. A number of GHG reduction projects have been prepared in various sectors.
Assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation measures
Using data provided by the National Hydrometeorology Department of MENR, yearly temperature and precipitation abnormalities from 1991 to 2000 have been analyzed. Over the past 10 years the mean temperature has increased by 0.41°C. The increase observed from 1961 to 1990 was 0.34°C, which means that the increase from 1991 to 2000 was 3 times faster. The yearly mean temperature increase from 2021 to 2050 is projected at 1.50°C-1.60°C, or approximately 0.30°C every 10 years. By 2050, precipitation will increase 10-20% compared to its level during the period of 1961 to 1990.
Between 2071 and 2100 the temperature is projected to increase by 5°C in most parts of the country. An increase in precipitation of 20% to 80% from West to East, respectively, is forecast, while in Nakhchivan, precipitation will likely decrease by 20%.
Water resources. Surface water resources are projected to reduce by 23% between 2021 and 2050, a loss of 22.5 km3. In the period 2071 to 2100, water resources are likely to reduce up to 20.7km3, or 29% lower than the baseline year level. The level of water shortage in that period will likely be 3.5 to 4 times higher than the baseline level. As today, agriculture, hydroenergy and water supply will continue to be the most vulnerable areas. In order to mitigate the adverse effects of future climate change, the following adaptation measures are proposed: enhancement of the water resources management system; introduction of additional sources of water; clean-up of river channels, strengthening defenses against inundations and flash floods; reducing water wastage and improving quality in supply networks; restoration and reconstruction of main water channels, watering and drainage systems; and construction of small HESs on mountain rivers and irrigation channels, etc.
Agro climatic resources. It is forecast that in 2021-2050 the number of days with mean temperatures above 100C will rise by 100-700%, for an additional 10 to 35 such days per year. during 2071-2100 the number of days with mean temperatures above 100C will rise by 1100-500% over the baseline figure, for an additional 25 to 80 such days per year. As for humidity, evaporation will likely rise by 15% over the baseline year level by 2050. However, because of the projected simultaneous rise of 10 to 20% in rainfall levels, a shortage of humidity experienced by plants during vegetation (climatic water balance) will be reduced by 85 to 260 mm, as compared to the baseline year. In 2071-2100 the level of precipitation is forecast to rise by 20 to 40% in most of the irrigated areas of the country. But because of the forecast prevailing increase in the level of evaporation, the climatic water balance might rise 20-100mm during vegetation.
Agriculture. The forecast increase in warming resources and extension of the duration of vegetation could favorably impact cotton plantations. Thus, presently cultivated medium-ripening varieties can be replaced with better quality late-ripening long fiber ones. It is possible to raise their productivity to match the high numbers achieved in 1980s or even improve this figure even higher. In both periods there will be favorable conditions for the present borders of areas where cereals are grown to move towards mountains (much more in the second period). However, due to a shortage of favorable soil resources in these areas, the expansion will be limited. Despite the fact that the duration of plant’s potential vegetation in conventional areas of cereals growing will extend due to global warming, the actual plants’ vegetation will shorten by 10-15 or 20-25 days. This will make it possible to grow cereals in wider areas. In addition, early harvest of wheat followed by sowing of forage, melons, greens, etc. will make it possible to harvest two and three times a year, raising overall productivity. However, this will be greatly dependent on water supply.
In 2021-2050 the borders of vineyards of industrial importance might, dependent on region, move up from the present 800-900m elevation another 200-450m toward the mountains. In 2071-2100 favorable conditions for plants may exist at 1400-1700m, but a lack of suitable lands for vineyards will limit the expansion. Harvest on fallow vineyards is expected to rise by 4-5 times in the first period. The level of sugar in grape juice will likely rise 2-3% in the first period and 6 to 7% in the second. In both periods a slight rise (up to 1%) in the level of acid in grape juice is expected to take place.
In spite of the increasingly favorable climate for winter pastures, their area might diminish due to soil erosion and an increased crops growing. In both periods the increased precipitation might cause a rise in the productivity of winter pastures both in winter and spring. As for summer pastures, in both periods there will be favorable climactic conditions for expansion, but again this will be limited by lack of land and new use pressures. Rising precipitation in humid areas will little contribute to the growth of productivity. Unless pressure from human activities is reduced, erosion induced by the rise in precipitation will be more intensive.
The following adaptation measures should be taken to address the effects discussed above: selection and introduction of plant varieties that are thermophilic, drought resistant and highly productive; continuation and broadening of interventions against soil salinity, erosion and drought; wide application of water-saving technologies; improvement and upscaling of an agricultural products storage system (warehouses, cold storage, etc.).
Coastal zones. Some 500 km2 of the Azerbaijani coast has been subjected to flooding since 1978 due the rise of the Caspian Sea. The damage to the economy since 1978 due to this issue is estimated at US$ 2 to 2.5 billion. During the periods considered here the sea level might rise another 150 cm, flooding another 825.1 km2. The following adaptation measures must be implemented: transference of coastal facilities to secure locations; installation of flood protection structures; installation of local protection structures for the remaining facilities and human settlements; and implementation of environmental protection actions.
Public health. As a result of the 1.50 C temperature rise in Baku during the summers of 2003-2006, cases of various illnesses increased 20-34% as compared to previous years. The general mortality rate is not high (3.4%), but the number of those dying from myocardial infarction and stroke increased by 26 % and 56% respectively. The growing elderly population and the future occurrence of urban heat islands might raise the rates of illness and mortality further.
The country is divided into three zones for the purposes of malaria analysis: endemic, epidemic and malaria-free zones. As a result of global warming, the borders of both endemic and epidemic malaria zones might move up towards the mountains and the periods of epidemic might lengthen in mountainous areas. Temperatures that support sporogony have already been observed from 2003- 2007 in previously unaffected areas. In 2021-2050 the malariagenic climatic conditions will be almost the same as in 2003-2007. However, a further rise of temperature in 2071-2100 will provide conditions for the expansion of the malariagenic areas and extension of epidemic periods. Considering that only 1.2% of the population live above 1500m, the probability of occurrence of new malaria spots at these heights is not significant.
To reduce the possible adverse effects of climate change to human health, the following adaptation measures should be implemented: taking account of existing heat islands effects and future climate change in urban planning; greening the cities in a more rapid way and planting vegetation in large areas around the cities; building capacity to forecast and prevent malaria epidemics; strengthening the systems to combat infection-carrying mosquitoes; reduction of cases of malaria entering the country; improving drinking water quality; adherence to standards of food storage, etc.
Belarus shares global concerns over the impact of climate change and supports international efforts on reducing carbon emissions.
We pledged to cut our greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 15 per cent against 1990 by 2012. These commitments are the most stringent among the state parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Amendment of Belarus
However, our obligations on cutting carbon emissions are still not internationally and legally recognized as Belarus is still out of the Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC.
To secure our place in the list of members to the Annex B, we need the adoption of the amendment that Belarus introduced specifically to this end, by 3/4 of all state parties to the UNFCCC. These are 144 countries.
Our efforts on ensuring the adoption of our amendment continue to be vibrant. We strenuously work on this matter with our partners both bilaterally and within multilateral fora, including the UNFCCC state parties conferences.
As soon as Belarus is in the Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol, it will be able to step up efforts in carrying out environmental projects, encouraging larger use of energy efficiency technologies and alternative sources of energy. These are all-important elements of our sustainable development strategy.
It also will put Belarus to the MRV (measurement, reporting, verification) comprehensive monitoring system to screen our progress in delivering our carbon reduction commitments.
On its part, Belarus has completed all procedures needed to take part in the Kyoto Protocol market mechanisms but is still ‘on the waiting list’ as our amendment is not yet endorsed.
A new climate deal
As negotiations on a new climate deal carry on we continue to promote our stance on this critical issue in consultations with our partners abroad.
In particular, we want the new climate deal to have due account for the objective national differences that countries understandably have in mind while coming up with concrete numbers of GHG reductions.
We also stand for keeping the market mechanisms and streamlining their enforcement procedures, encouraging better access to cutting-edge technologies for every nation, and due account for the vital role that swamps and peat swamps are playing in absorbing CO2 across our planet.
In particular, we suggest to incorporate to the new climate deal a specific paragraph about peat swamps that are a large part of our landscape. The degradation of peat swamps in the world over triggers carbon emissions totaling around 10 per cent of all С02 emissions. Meanwhile, efforts on restoring peat swamps clearly pay off in the long run as they help considerably reduce carbon accumulation in the atmosphere.
In terms of carbon reductions, we flagged up our readiness to cut the GHG by up to 10 per cent by 2020 against 1990 as it corresponds to our aim on raising the energy efficiency of our economy by 60 per cent in ten years.
Belarus keeps the problem of climate change in tight focus, as evidenced by the country’s accession to all the major international conventions in this field. On 11 June, 1992, the Republic of Belarus signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ratifying it on
11 May 2000 and becoming a full party to the UNFCCC on 9 August 2000.
On 26 August 2005, the country signed an instrument of accession to the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC becoming a full party to the Protocol on 24 November 2005. By the Decision 10/СМР.2 of the second session of the Conference of the Parties acting as the Council of Parties in Nairobi, 6-17 November 2006, the Republic of Belarus was included in Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol undertaking greenhouse gas reduction commitments in the amount of 92% to the 1990 emissions for the first commitment period 2008 - 2012 (“Proposal from Belarus to Amend Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol” (draft decision FCCC/KP/CMP/2006/L.9)). The inclusion of Belarus in the list of Annex B countries is the primary condition for the country’s participation in the Kyoto Protocol economic mechanisms and attraction of financial resources into the country under the flexible mechanisms.
Belarus submitted its First National Communication covering the period 1990 to 2000 in 2003. This National Communication contains information that demonstrates further development of the country and encompasses the period 1990 to 2005, inclusive. Since the accession to the Kyoto Protocol, the country has enthusiastically embarked on a mission to create conditions conducive to meeting commitments undertaken by the country. Legislative, institutional and technical frameworks are being developed for full and effective participation of Belarus in the flexible mechanisms stipulated by the Kyoto Protocol. The National Action Plan on Climate Change has been approved, the National Sustainable Development Strategy and the Fourth National Communication have been developed.
An analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends and forecasts indicates that the Republic of Belarus is likely to meet its greenhouse gas reduction commitments compared to the base year (1990). Nevertheless realizing its responsibility for climate change and considering future commitments within the next commitment period, the Government plans respective activities designed to stabilize emissions and increase removals of greenhouse gases during the period of economic growth. In accordance with the 2005-2012 Action Plan for the Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, this strategy should, among other things, include development and integration of greenhouse gas emission reduction and sink expansion activities in sectoral programs of wise nature use and environmental protection for 2006–2010 and subsequent years by providing for greenhouse gas emission reduction in 2008–2012.
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) became a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on December 6, 2000.
The 1990 BiH inventory of greenhouse gases has been compiled in line with UNFCCC Reporting guidelines. The methodology used was the European CORINAIR methodology. Specific emission factors for Bosnia and Herzegovina were calculated for the 12 types of coal found in BiH. Barriers to the calculation of emissions included data that were incompatible with IPCC methodology, lack of equipment for data collection, and missing data (particularly for industrial processes and LUCF and waste). The quality of activity data was the main problem. Among other methods, inventory calculations were checked by comparing results with regional data and by preparing two calculations for the energy sector: approach by sector and a simpler reference approach (the difference between the two was 1%). The most significant source of CO2 emissions is certainly the energy sector, which contributes 74% of total CO2 emissions. Other emissions sources include agriculture (12%), industrial processes (11%), and waste (3%). In the energy sector, solid fuels-coal make the largest proportion (77%), followed by liquid fuels (17%) and gas (6%). The largest source of CO2 in industrial processes is iron and steel production, with more than 67%. The main sources of methane are agriculture (cattle breeding), fugitive emissions from coalmines, and waste disposal. The largest amount of N2O emissions results from agricultural soils through soil cultivation and crop farming. According to the collected data, forests in BiH represent a significant CO2 sink: 7,423.53 Gg CO2 for the base year of 1990.
Climate Conditions, Climate Variability, and Projections of Climate Change
In all model runs examined, average annual temperature increased, and average net precipitation decreased for the future periods in the projections. Using the EH5OM global model, the temperature in BiH is projected to increase from 0.7 to 1.6°C per 1°C of global increase during the period 2031-2060.3 It is clear that the average rise in temperature (the daily mean averaged over 30 years) is between 1 and 2°C along the coast, and between 2 and 3°C inland. The largest temperature increases would occur in summer, and in inland areas: Tmean by 4°C and Tmax by 5°C on average. Furthermore, Tmax is expected to rise more than Tmin. The increase in the number of summer days, defined as the number of days when Tmax exceeds 25°C, is from 2 to 6 weeks, or about one additional month of summer days on average. Finally, the increase in the number of hot days in the Balkans, defined as the number of days with Tmax > 30°C, ranges from 2 weeks along the coast to 5-6 weeks inland. For precipitation, using the EH5OM global model, the summer climate will be noticeably drier in Southern Europe. This will be especially notice able in summer (June-August), when already small amounts of rainfall could be halved. All parts of the Mediterranean (including the Balkans) are expected to see a decrease in summertime precipitation and a small decrease or no change in the other seasons during the period 2031-2060. On average, the Mediterranean region is expected to feature more dry days. The increase in dry days is likely to be lower along the coast but higher in the inland Balkans.
Increasing variability in the weather has been noted in all seasons, with rapid changes of short periods (five to ten days) of extremely cold or warm weather - heat and cold waves - and periods with extremely high levels of rainfall, as well as droughts. It is expected that the duration of dry periods, the incidence of torrential flooding and the intensity of land erosion will increase over the next century. In addition, an increase is expected in the occurrence of hail, storms, lightning, and maximum wind velocity, which can represent threats to all forms of human activity.
BiH did not have the capacity to select adequate methods and approaches for socio-economic scenarios and climate change scenarios that would reflect national circumstances in a robust way during the preparation of the INC due to severe data shortages in and projections. Therefore, the INC has made preliminary conclusions based on a combination of two types of existing projections: 1) regional-level output from a global model (Section 3.2.1.); and 2) findings from other research. The task of expanding scenarios to reflect national conditions in future projections is an urgent one and a high priority for the Second National Communication.
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
BiH is highly vulnerable to climate change. Exposure to threats from climate change will be considerable. BiH also has a high sensitivity to these threats because of the economic role of “climate-sensitive” sectors, such as agriculture and forestry (and the role of hydropower in the energy sector to a lesser extent), with significant secondary impacts. Finally, BiH has very limited adaptive capacity to address climate risks.
Estimating the Potential for Mitigating Climate Change in BiH
Two scenarios were used to assess the potential effects of reducing greenhouse gas emissions: a baseline, or “business as usual” scenario, and a second scenario that assumed organized measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with actual in-country potential and realistic stimulus measures from abroad.
Energy Sector: Measures to reduce GHG emissions in this sector included reducing methane emissions caused by underground mining by using a mixture of ventilation air and methane; increasing the energy efficiency of the existing facilities (both production and transmission facilities); developing renewable energy sources; using biomass or lower-carbon fuels; and reducing N2O emissions. BiH should continue the process of translating EU directives on the use of renewable energy sources and introducing energy efficiency measures into BiH legislation. The country should also designate a fund that would be used to finance renewable energy source and energy efficiency projects;
District Heating Systems: These systems must increase their energy efficiency and improve operations, thus increasing competitiveness. Potential measures include general strategic measures, improvement of the infrastructure, introduction of meters and controls, and the development of co-generation.
Buildings: The possibilities of reducing energy consumption and of CO2 emissions in the buildings sector are enormous. Key measures may be classified into three groups: 1) Adopting new standards and codes in the field of energy efficiency; 2) Optimizing the shells of existing buildings based on cost-effective measures; and 3) Using energy-efficient technologies in buildings and introducing metering and controls.
Renewable Energy Sources: Key measures to support mitigation by increasing the share of renewable energy include the following: create a legislative framework for renewable energy; develop a functional system of incentives, taking into account the capability of the current Environmental funds; develop a strategy for renewable energy in close cooperation with competent institutions for water management, agriculture and forestry; address grid connection issues; substitute renewables for liquid fuels, especially in public buildings; assess biomass-fueled remote
heating systems in places with a developed timber and wood industry.
Industrial Processes: Assessments made on the basis of official statistical data of the FBiH and RS Statistical Institutes show that consumption of energy per unit of product is the highest in the textile industry (3,924MWh/t), whereas it is the lowest in the food and drinks industry (0,268 MWh/tIn the food processing industry, the possibility of replacing liquid and gas fuels is important, including fuel switching to biogas. Furthermore, in the frozen food cold chain, there are eight measures that could save energy and reduce emissions. In beer production, improvements in energy and water efficiency would bring substantial benefits. In the cement industry, one of the solutions for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions is to partially replace fossil fuels with alternative fuels that are obtained primarily from waste. In the cement industry, one of the measures for reducing CO2 emission is the reduction in the clinker-to-cement ratio, because CO2 emissions are mostly ascribed to clinker production. One important cross-cutting measure for mitigating climate change and for considerably reducing emissions is the systematic management of industrial waste. A related measure would be the use of waste disposal for energy, whether it be thermal energy from solid waste incineration or the use of landfill gas methane for energy purposes.
Transport: Stricter measures need to be introduced for passenger motor vehicles when conducting regular vehicle inspections and preventive maintenance inspections. That way, 5% of motor vehicles a year would have to be barred from traffic, which would result in a considerable renewal
of the passenger vehicle pool in the next 20 years, as well as a 30% reduction in GHG emissions. By encouraging a large number of passengers to use public transportation services, and their number would increase by about 40,000 passengers a year, it would be possible to save about 2,100,000 tons of fuel by 2030. Furthermore, if the railway infrastructure and supra-structure are renewed, passenger transport in both entities will increase by about 12% a year; i.e., by 2030 it will grow from the present 53 million to 180 million passenger kilometers. Increased use of water transport could considerably enhance the development of heavy industry and relieve road transport: in water transport, 1 kW can push 4 tonnes of cargo, while in road transportation 1 kW can push 100 kg, and in railway transportation 1 kW can move 400 kg.
Agriculture: Mitigation in this sector should include the following measures: the use of biomass in biogas production, i.e. for energy purposes; measures to reduce methane emissions by introducing new livestock breeding and feeding practices; and measures to reduce nitrogen oxides emissions through programmes aimed at improving the application of mineral and organic fertilizers and introducing organic production. Furthermore, the introduction of organic production principles would reduce energy consumption and lead to greater accumulation of organic matter in soil.
Forestry: Updated forest inventories are acutely needed to provide information for decision-making in the sector. The application of certain silviculture methods could increase carbon sequestration in tree biomass and enlarge forest area by reforestation of bare lands, therefore increasing the overall annual biomass increment. Activities that could be integrated into everyday forest management planning include permanent control of forest health conditions and monitoring, increase of thinning activities and planting pioneer wood species on the degraded forest lands. Increasing fire protection measures, restoring the productive forest cover, increasing protection measures and generally expanding the forest and mountain areas under protection.
Waste management: It is necessary to improve the system of waste management (avoiding of waste generation, recycling and re-usage), with an emphasis on collection and usage of methane from regional landfills.
According to the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences' National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, 2007 was the warmest year since 1988. Most climate models simulate air temperature increases in Bulgaria of between 2 ˚C and 5 ˚C and a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations.
The state and impacts
National inventories have been compiled since 1988, Bulgaria's benchmark year. To date, 18 GHG inventories have been completed and handed over to the UNFCCC Secretariat, the last for 2007.
Inventorising greenhouse gas emissions in bulgaria
As a party to the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC), Bulgaria is compiling annual inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sources and sinks, using the methodology set out in the convention.
National inventories have been compiled since 1988, Bulgaria's benchmark year. To date, 18 GHG inventories have been completed and handed over to the UNFCCC Secretariat, the last for 2007.
The 2007 GHG inventory shows that overall GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent came to 75,793 gigagrammes (Gg) without taking land use, changes in land use and forestry (LULUCF) sector sinks into account. Net emissions, taking account LULUCF sinks, were 68,991 Gg.
In 2007, CO2 emissions, expressed as CО2 equivalent, had the greatest share of overall GHG emissions at 77.7 %, followed by methane (CH4) emissions at 15.3 % and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions at 6.7 %; polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (F) gases had a 0.3 % share.
The key drivers and pressures
The energy sector occupies a key place in the Bulgarian economy. It was the source of more than 74 % of aggregate GHG emissions in 2007. CO2 contributes the greatest share of aggregate GHG emissions in the sector, at up to 91 %.
CO2 contributed the greatest share of GHG emissions from the industrial processing in 2007 at 77 %. Second comes N2O with 19 % and third is CH4 with 1 % of overall emissions expressed in CO2 equivalent. The sector's most significant GHG sources are cement manufacture (CO2), steelmaking (CO2), lime making (CO2) and nitrous oxide manufacture (N2O).
The Energy sector
In accordance with the nomenclature of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC), emissions from fuel burning for energy generation are included under the energy sector. The sector also includes random emissions from the production, transport and distribution of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels.
The energy sector occupies a key place in the Bulgarian economy. It was the source of more than 74 % of aggregate GHG emissions in 2007. CO2 contributes the greatest share of aggregate GHG emissions in the sector, at up to 91 %.
Combustion for energy generation occupies the greatest share of GHG emissions at more than 45 % of the sector's total. This is the sole subsector in which there was a significant increase on the benchmark year of 1988: from 48 % to 59 % in 2007. In other subsectors this share changes as follows: combustion in industrial processing from 27 % to 19 %; transport from 15 % to 14.6 % public buildings and households from 9.8 % to 2.9 %. Reduced direct burning of fuels in households not only cut GHG emissions but also air pollution.
The overall national fuel and energy balance
Primary energy generation in 2007 came to 9,738 ktoe according to the National Statistical Institute's (NSI) Energy Balances 2007, and was some 5 % less than in 2000. Between 2000 and 2007 the greatest amount of primary energy was generated (PEG) in 2002 largely from nuclear plants. A significant increase in natural gas production is apparent since 2004, due to development of the Galata gas field. Use of renewable energy sources (RES), mainly hydropower and biomass, has grown from 788 ktoe in 2000 to 1029 ktoe in 2007.
Bulgaria has limited resources of coal, crude oil and natural gas: coal is a major factor in national energy sufficiency, with a PEG share of 43.96 % in 2000 and 49 % in 2007.
In 2007, Bulgaria imported 14,952 ktoe worth of energy commodities, or some 23 % more than in 2000. Since 2003, fuel imports have grown steadily, crude oil and its derivatives being the major contributors to this.
Fuel and energy exports almost doubled since 2000 due to growing petroleum product and electric power exports.
Gross domestic consumption
Coal and nuclear fuel led domestic consumption between 2000 and 2007. After a drop from 2003 onwards, in 2007 coal use grew by 10 % on 2006. In 2007, nuclear fuel, mainly for power generation, had the lowest cost over the review period, due to the closure of Units 3 and 4 at the AETs Kozloduy nuclear power station. The closure also resulted in a 73 % drop in 2007 net power exports on 2006.
The slow growth in natural gas consumption, by an annual average of 0.7 % between 2000 and 2007, is a positive trend.
Bulgaria's major RESs are biomass and hydropower. Negligible amounts of wind, geothermal, solar energy and biofuels have also been used in recent years. The share of RES in 2007 in gross domestic consumption comes to 5.1 %: down from 5.8 % in 2006.
Ultimate energy consumption
Ultimate energy consumption had grown in 2007 by 13.1 % on 2000, the sole drop being in household consumption which fell by 5.6 %. Ultimate energy consumption dropped in 2007 on 2006 across all sectors except industry, where it grew by 2.2 %. Households showed the greatest drop, -5.3 % while transport registered its first ever drop, -4.4 %. The Miscellaneous category also fell, by -3.6 %.
Industry had the greatest share of ultimate energy consumption at 37.9 %, followed by transport at 28.1 %, households at 21.8 % and miscellaneous at 12.2 %. Figure 4 shows ultimate energy consumption by economic sector.
The greatest structural changes in ultimate energy consumption between 2000 and 2007 were the drop in the share of coal based fuels, from 6.6 % in 2000 to 3.1 % in 2007, and the rise of the share of petroleum products from 36.3 % to 38.9 %. In 2007 natural gas in ultimate energy consumption by fuel and energy commodity reached its 2000 level. Electric power use dropped insignificantly, while thermal power had dropped by almost 2 %.
Between 2001 and 2006, energy intensity – gross energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product – declined. Figure 5 shows energy intensity as the amount of kilotonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe) needed to create a thousand leva-worth of Bulgarian gross domestic product. The trend of the economy's energy intensity is positive, indicating a decoupling of energy use from economic growth, and thus showing that Bulgarian economic development is sustainable.
Lack of data on private car journeys limits assessment of overall passenger transport demand on public transport. The analyses which follow show passenger transport productivity as the product of the number of passengers and the number of kilometres over which they were carried: passenger kilometres (pkm): an indicator used across Europe. Between 2000 and there was a drop in passenger transportation for all types except air. This is clearly due to the rise in private car use that has mainly impacted road transport.
GHG emissions from the industrial processes originate from manufacturing and material use. Combustion does not form these emissions, which include all major GHGs and GHG precursors. CO2 contributed the greatest share of GHG emissions from the industrial processing in 2007 at 77 %. Second comes N2O with 19 % and third is CH4 with 1 % of overall emissions expressed in CO2 equivalent. The sector's most significant GHG sources are cement manufacture (CO2), steelmaking (CO2), lime making (CO2) and nitrous oxide manufacture (N2O).
GHG emissions from solvent use result from the manufacture or application of paint and glue, the use of solvents in light industry and the home, dry cleaning, vegetable oil manufacture and medicine and anaesthetic manufacture. The sector mainly emits non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and N2O. NMVOC emissions are 8.03 Gg, or 10 % of Bulgarian NMVOC emissions.
GHG emissions from the agriculture result from the manufacture and processing of agricultural produce, soil fertilisation and animal waste processing. The sector mainly emits CH4 and N2O. Farm animal enteric fermentation is the greatest source of CH4 emissions in the sector at 65.31 Gg per year. These are also significant N2O emissions, mainly from farmland, their share in 2007 being 88 % of agricultural emissions. A certain amount of GHG precursors, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides, are emitted during stubble burning.
Land use, land use change and forestry
LULUCF encompasses processes of CO2 exchange between biomass sources – forest, grassland, other plantations and soils – and the atmosphere. The exchange of CO2 streams from and to the atmosphere is a compound process also affected by human action. Thus, CO2 absorption from forests is linked with the husbandry and management of timber plantations for industrial felling. Wasteland afforestation to stop erosion also leads to CO2 accumulation in biomass.
Atmospheric emissions of CO2 result from forest clearance and burning to create farmland, and from changes in the organic composition of soils from erosion or chemical treatment.
GHG emissions from the waste result from hard household and public waste collection, storage and treatment and also from household and industrial wastewater treatment. Hard waste may be treated by deposition at tips, recycling or burning whether to destroy it or to derive energy. Only land-filled/deposition hard waste GHG emissions are taken into account. Deposited hard waste emits СН4 as a result of anaerobic and aerobic organic dissolution. CH4 emissions lead the 2007 waste inventory in Bulgaria.
Wastewater treatment is the second great source of СН4 in this sector, with industrial, household and public wastewater assessed separately.
A basic international assessment indicator of greenhouse gas emissions is the amount of GHG emitted per capita. The trend in the change in overall GHG emissions is repeated assessing per person annual emissions. Bulgaria's overall per person GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent between 1988 and 2002 dropped from 14.9 tonnes in 1988 to 8.5 tonnes in 2002, thereafter rising to 9.2 tonnes in 2003 and 9.9 tonnes in 2007.
GHG emissions are closely associated with economic growth, since energy and natural resource use grow as business becomes more buoyant. The reduction of this correlation is a sign of sustainable development; hence, annual GHG emissions per unit of gross domestic product are an interesting indicator. Figure 9 shows the development of this indicator in Bulgaria between 1997 and 2007.
Over a decade, GHG emissions resulting from the creation of 1000 leva worth of gross domestic product have fallen significantly from 4.8 tonnes of СО2 equivalent in 2000 to 1.3 tonnes of СО2 equivalent in 2007.
Despite the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from Croatia account for less than 0.1 % of global emissions and the country has some of the lowest per capita emissions in Europe compared to other Kyoto Protocol Annex I countries, the effects of climate change will not be avoided.
It is estimated that climate change in Croatia will mainly affect the sectors of agriculture, fisheries, hydropower and tourism. These sectors account for 25% of the Croatian economy, employ almost 600.000 people and represent a total annual GDP of 9 billion €. During 2000–2007, due to extreme weather conditions (drought, frost and hail), the agricultural sector suffered estimated losses of EUR 176 million per annum on average. This is equivalent to 0.6% of GDP or 9.3% of the Gross Value Added (GVA) generated in agriculture, forestry and fisheries.
Greenhouse gas emissions
The general decline in economic activity during the period 1991-1994, primarily due to the war in Croatia, led to a reduction in the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. However, in 1995, emissions began to rise again at an average rate of 3% per annum, with the largest contribution of Energy, Industrial Processes and Waste sectors.
Total GHG emission in 2008 expressed as CO2 equivalent, including removals by sinks, was 31,132 Gg CO2 eq., which is emission reduction by 0.9% compared to 1990 GHG emission.
The Energy sector is the biggest contributor to GHG emissions. In 2008, CO2 emissions from the heat and power production at thermal power plants, public heating plants and in public boiler houses amounted to 6,704 Gg CO2 eq., representing 21.5% of total GHG emissions in Croatia.
In the Industrial processes sector, key emission sources are the production of cement, lime, ammonia and nitric acid and the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in refrigeration and air-conditioning systems, accounting for 99% of all emissions in this sector during 2008.
With regard to CH4 emissions in the Agriculture sector, the main source is animal husbandry (enteric fermentation). CH4 emissions experienced a downward trend until 2000, when an increase in the number of cattle led to a rise in emissions which continued until 2006. Direct N2O emissions resulting from agricultural land tillage, emissions from the decomposition of animal waste (manure management) and indirect emissions have generally been stable over the past ten years.
The major reason for the increase in GHG emission in Energy sector is increase in production and consequently increase in electricity and heat demand, along with increase in transport due to growth in number of motor vehicles and consumption of fuel.
In 2008, total energy consumption in Croatia was 413.24 PJ, resulting in per capita energy consumption that was 61.2% of the average per capita consumption in the European Union (EU 27). The largest share of approximately 30% is attributed to general consumption, while the transport share varies from 18-22%. Energy consumption in industry has gradually been decreasing and in recent years it accounted for 14-15% only, while the share of losses from energy transformations is 18-19%. Consumption of energy for non-energy use amounts to around 7% and energy transmission and distribution losses are 2-3%. During the period 2000-2008, energy consumption for operation of power plants and losses from energy transmission and distribution decreased at average annual rates of 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. In the same period, the average annual rate of increase in energy consumption for transport was 4.2%, in general consumption 2.1% and in industry 2.3%. Energy transformation losses and consumption for non-energy use increased slightly to an annual average rate of 1.1% and 0.7% respectively.
A breakdown of the individual energy shares making up the total consumption indicates that liquid fuels have the highest share at 44-46%, followed by natural gas, which has increased to around 27% in recent years. The average share of hydropower is 10-16%, depending on hydrological conditions, while the share for fire wood and biomass fuels was just over 3% in the recent years. The share of other renewable energy sources (RES) in 2008 is very low, representing only 0.2%, but a continuous increase in installed capacities for heat and power production from the so called “new renewable energy sources” (solar, wind, geothermal, biogas and landfill gas, biodiesel, etc) has been noticed in the last five years. The share for coal is around 8%. Imported electricity represents 4-6% of the total energy consumed and 35% of the total electricity consumption.
Growth trends in national GDP, total energy consumption and electricity consumption have resulted in a welcome reduction of energy intensities. During the period 2000-2008, energy intensity fell by an average annual rate of 2.6%, with an average annual rate of decrease by 4% from 2005 to 2008.
Emission projections and effects of implementation of policy and measures
The 2008-2011 Air Quality Protection and Improvement Plan for the Republic of Croatia (Official Gazette 61/2008) defined 33 measures for climate change mitigation which are currently either in preparation or being implemented. An accompanying GHG emission trend in the period 1990-2008 indicates an obvious deceleration of the emission increase during the recent years, which is partly an outcome of measures taken to fulfil the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Most of the measures are long-term and their effect will only be visible in the post-2011 period.
The GHG emission projections for the period until 2030 had not taken into consideration the effects of the economic crisis which started in 2008. Foreseeable impact of the economic crisis shall affect the GHG emission so that it will increase the likelihood that Croatia will meet its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol . In the context of post-Kyoto negotiations, Croatia has submitted its 2013-2020 target to the UNFCCC Secretariat and aims to reduce emissions by 5% in relation to the base year (Decision 7/CP12 included).
Measures and activities in the Energy sector
The Energy sector (stationary sources) accounts for around 50% of total GHG emissions in Croatia. The activities intensified during the recent years, and a number of bylaws aiming at increase in energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources and efficient cogenerations has been passed, which should indirectly result in mitigation of the environmental impact of Energy sector. The Energy Strategy is a baseline document which defines energy policy and sets the following targets and measures for the reduction of GHG emissions:
Energy efficiency in energy production and consumption
- 10% reduction of direct energy consumption by 2020 as compared to average consumption in 2001–2005 period.
- Increase in share of renewable energy sources in gross direct energy consumption to 20% by 2020. Sectoral targets are:
o 35% RES in electricity production, including large hydroelectric power plants (9.2% of total RES share);
o - 10% in transport (2.2.% of total RES share);
o - 20% for heating and cooling systems (8.6% of total RES share).
- Inclusion in EU emission trading system and the application of other flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol
- Preparation for the application of CO2 capture and separation technology in new coal-firing thermal power plants and storage in geologic formations
- Research and application of CO2 injection technology for enhanced oil recovery (EOR)
Decisions on the use of nuclear energy
Promotion of research and transfer of new technologies for energy production, energy conservation, renewable energy sources, use of hydrogen, transportation efficiency, intelligent network systems, CO2 storage, etc.
Setting up the emissions trading system
In order to harmonise the Croatian legislation with Directive 2003/87/EC which introduced the system of GHG emission trading among EU Member States, the Croatian government issued the Regulation on Greenhouse Gas Emission Allowances and Emissions Trading (Official Gazette 142/08) in 2008. This regulation establishes a GHG emissions trading system in accordance with the criteria used to establish the EU trading system. For the first time this sets an upper limit for GHG emissions for electricity producers and industrial facilities in Croatia. By the Air Protection Act (Official Gazette 178/04, 60/08) the government adopted an Allocation Plan for Greenhouse Gas Emission Allowances in the Republic of Croatia (Official Gazette 76/09). The plan sets upper limits for carbon dioxide emissions for the period 2010 to 2012 for the operators to which the Regulation applies. The Croatian emission trading system is planned to be implemented in two phases. During 2009-2010, the operators will obtain permits for emissions, and during 2010-2012 they will monitor emissions from the plants and submit verified reports thereon. Upon the accession of Croatia to the EU, allowances will be allocated to the accounts of plants in the Register and the Croatian ETS system will be integrated into the EU ETS.
UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
The UN Convention on Climate Change came into force in July 1996 (Official Gazette-International Treaties, 2/96). As a country in transition to a market economy Croatia assumed obligations as a party to Annex I of the Convention and now regularly submits its Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports (NIR) and periodic reports to the UNFCCC Secretariat .
When it ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2007, Croatia accepted a series of additional requirements and commitments, including:
- The establishment of a national system for the assessment of emissions from anthropogenic sources and removals by sinks of all GHG gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol (in accordance with Article 5 of the Kyoto Protocol);
- The setting up of a national register of GHG emissions in order to calculate allocated amounts exactly and meet requirements for monitoring, reporting and revision under Articles 7 and 8 of the Kyoto Protocol.
- The key document defining the position, goals and methods for fulfilling the commitments under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol is the National Strategy and Action Plan for the Implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Furthermore, in May 2008, the Croatian government adopted the Air Quality Protection and Improvement Plan for the Republic of Croatia 2008-2011 (Official Gazette 61/2008). The National Strategy and Action Plan for the Implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol is an integral part of this plan.
- The GHG emissions are currently below the Croatia's commitment under the Kyoto Protocol in relation to the base year 1990, including the additional 3,500 Gg CO2–eq. approved at the 12th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC Convention from Nairobi (Decision 7/CP12). Applicability of the Decision 7/CP12 is under consideration. In case it will not be able to use the base year determined by the 7/CP12, Croatia will have to invest additional efforts and funds in “additional measures” scenario in order to meet its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.
According to the available information from the National Meteorological Service (2009), temperature has increased by 1οC and precipitation reduced by 100mm (corresponding to 17%) during the last 100 years. These changes, are not only been noticed in statistical data, but have already caused significant impacts to the everyday life of the country. During the last 10 years the extreme weather events are showing an increasing trend and so is their intensity, droughts are more often and longer. At the same time the demand in water is increasing causing severe water scarcity. The latest example is the 2008 drought, which has caused the government to take the decision of importing water from Greece. Forest wildfires are increasing in frequency due to the high temperatures and extensive droughts and forests are already experiencing the impacts of the reduction in precipitation and high temperatures.
The projected impacts of climate change in Cyprus according to the models of the IPCC expect Cyprus to experience severe desertification within the next 100 years due to increasing temperatures and further reduction of precipitation.
The state and impacts
Emission of greenhouse gases without LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) increased by 93.6% between 1990 and 2008, which corresponds to GHG emissions of 4,932 Gg CO2 equivalents. 76% of the emissions without LULUCF in 2008 were from the sector of energy, compared to 67.5% in 1990. The increase is caused primarily by the increase in the emissions from road transport. The largest contributor to the emissions is CO2 with 84% in 2008 compared to 80% in 1990 whereas CH4 and N2O decreased from 14% to 10% and 6% to 5% respectively. In 1990 no emissions have been reported for f-gases, whereas in 2008 they contributed 1% to the total emissions. More details are available in the annual GHG (greenhouse gases emissions) report 2010.
The available information from the National Meteorological Service (2009) has shown a decrease in precipitation and increase in the temperature. Precipitation reduced from an average annual precipitation in the first 30-year period of the century of 559 mm, to an average precipitation in the last 30-year period of 462 mm, corresponding to a decrease of 17%. The average precipitation in the last decade of the century is among the lowest values for the various decades of the century. Average annual temperature in Cyprus, both in urban and in rural areas, present an increasing trend. In Nicosia the average annual temperature increased from 18.9°C in the first 30-year period of the century to 19.7°C in the last 30-year period, i.e. an increase of 0.8°C.
The changing climate has already an impact in the environment of the country. Water scarcity, desertification, increase frequency in wildfires and deteriorating forests are the impacts that Cyprus has already experienced.
The key drivers and pressures
The main cause for the increase of GHG emissions is Cyprus is the developing economy. Since 1990 the GDP has an average annual increase of 4%. The respective increase in GHG was also 4% but with considerable fluctuations.
Cyprus ratified the UNFCCC as a non-Annex I party, and the Kyoto Protocol as a non-Annex B party. This means that Cyprus did not have any limitations or obligations regarding greenhouse gases emissions under the international regime. However, in December 2008, through the EU climate and energy package, Cyprus has been allocated with the reduction target of 5% compared to 2005 by 2020 for sectors not included in the Emissions Trading (Decision 406/2009/EC on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020). These include among other the sectors of transport, agriculture, waste, buildings etc. Moreover, there is also the target of 21% for the ETS installations, which is a target for the whole of the EU (Directive 2009/29/EC amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme of the Community).
Cyprus is in currently facing for the first time the challenge for reducing greenhouse gases emissions from all sectors.
In 2008, renewable energy sources contribute 4.5% to the total energy consumption in Cyprus compared to 1.9% in 1997. The aim is to reach 13% by 2020 which is the new target allocated to Cyprus through Directive 2009/28/EC. Other energy sources are coal and pet-coke (7.1%) and petrol (88.4%). Primary energy consumption in 2008 increased by 20% compared to 1990.
The 2020 outlook
According to the scenarios prepared for the provisions of Article 3(2) of Directive 280/2004/EC  the GHG emissions are expected to reach 210% increase by 2020 compared to 1990 and 74% compared to 2005 with business as usual scenario (BaU). In case some measures are implemented (with measures scenario, WM) the increase is 86% compared to 1990 and 5% compared to 2005. Moreover, in case all the planned measures are implemented (with additional measures, WAM) the increase compared to 1990 is expected to be 30% and -27% compared to 2005. 2005 is the year of reference for the targets set through Decision 406/2009/EC on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020. The EAC scenario is the scenario of projections if the only measure taken into consideration is the use of natural gas in electricity production; the reduction that can be achieved is 21% compared to BaU or increase of 37% compared to 2005 and 145% compared to 1990.
The fragile climate system of the Earth which is generally understood as the biggest global environmental issue of these days was only a secondary issue in the Czech Republic during the 1990s as more attention was paid to urgent issues such as air and water pollution. At the beginning of the 21st century, when most of the pressing problems had been solved, climate protection became more important and, currently, it is the issue number one in common with the rest of the EU.
Observations show increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, rising global mean sea level, ocean acidification and more frequent extreme climatic events. It is very likely that most of the warming can be attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases by human activities.
Without immediate action climate change will impact all levels of society. Therefore, mitigation measures are required, aimed especially at limiting greenhouse gas emissions, at all levels of society, on a global, European and national scale.
The state and impacts
The GHG emissions in the Czech Republic are decreasing but are still higher in per capita and per GDP unit compared to the European average. The observed increase of average annual temperature during the last 50 years is approximately 0.3 °C per decade.
Air temperature in the Czech Republic is increasing; the beginning of the 21st century is the warmest period within more than last 200 years for which the instrumental observation is available. The speed of increase of the average annual temperatures over the past 50 years is approximately 0.3 ° C/10 years (see Fig.). The most significant trend of increasing temperature is observed in the summer months, the smallest in the period from September to November. Precipitation totals (annual and monthly) did not have statistically significant trend since 1961 (time series of precipitation are shorter than temperature observations). However, there are some changes in the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation. Spatially bounded downpours, flood situations and prolonged droughts are getting more frequent, which relates to the overall increase of the climate extremity.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Between 1990 and 2008, the Czech Republic decreased its greenhouse gas emissions, by 27.5%. The commitment contained in the Kyoto Protocol (decrease of emissions by 8% until the 2008–2012 control period) will be well accomplished. A steep decline began to be seen at the beginning of the 1990s and since then, emissions have been stagnating, slightly rising at the beginning of 21.century and markedly decreasing from 2008. Regarding the Energy-Climate package of the EU, the Czech Republic is very likely to comply with the 20 % reduction target till 2020; nevertheless, some problems might occur if the higher (30 %) target had been endorsed.
Pressures on the environment in the Czech Republic are still higher per the unit of economical performance than it is usual in the EU. The development of GHG emissions is closely connected with the economical performance especially with the situation in energy, industry and transportation.
The state of the national economy in terms of pressures on the climate system has been markedly influenced by the situation in the past, in common with the other Visegrad countries. Until 1989, the Czech Republic’s economy was based on energy and material-intensive industrial production, in which heavy industry played an important part, including the production of basic metallurgical materials, cement and basic chemicals. This was associated with high consumption of primary energy sources (PES).
Nowadays, the position of industry in the Czech economy is still extraordinary. The share of Czech industry in GDP fluctuates around 32 %, while the average share in EU27 is approximately 20 % over a comparable time period. In the EU15 countries, the proportion is even lower (19.5 %) especially due to the gradual dematerialisation of the economy. Figures above 25 % are only seen in six EU countries.
The consumption of primary energy sources (PES) in the Czech Republic had been continuously growing since 2000. However, this trend was reversed in 2007 and the consumption of PES decreased – in 2007 and 2008 only slightly, but in 2009 markedly when the significant year-to-year decrease of PES accounted for 6.4 %. In the structure of PES, the share of solid fossil fuels decreased from 54.7 % in 2000 to 46.2 % in 2009, whereas the share of liquid and gas fuels slightly increased (see Fig.).
Energy intensity of the national economy was very unstable and greatly fluctuated between 2000 and 2003. However, since 2004, the situation has improved considerably and energy intensity has been rapidly decreasing. The highest decline by 6.4 % was recorded in 2008 but the situation in 2009 was affected by the decline of GDP due to the economic crisis. As a consequence, despite a very high year-to-year decline in the consumption of PES, energy intensity increased just slightly by 1.8 %.
Final energy consumption followed a similar trend as the consumption of PES. Within individual forms of energy, electricity consumption and fuel consumption increased after 2000 (mainly due to the development of transportation sector), while heat consumption decreased. In sectoral classifications, in 2009, the greatest proportion of energy (39.4 %) was consumed by industry. The second-greatest use of total energy consumption was households (decreasing trend, 22.2 % in 2009). Since 2007, the amount of energy consumed in households has been exceeded by the transportation sector (24.6 % of all consumption in 2009), whose energy consumption rapidly increased throughout the period 2000–2007 by 86 %.
By international comparison, the Czech Republic has an above average consumption of energy calculated per inhabitant compared to the EU15 and EU27 countries (2.5 TJ/capita compared to 2.3 and 2.1 TJ/capita in 2008, see Fig.). Regarding energy consumption distribution in national economic sectors, the Czech Republic has a higher rate of energy consumption in industry compared to the EU27 and EU15 countries. On the other hand, despite a strong increase in traffic over the past few years, energy consumption in this sector is still below the European average.
The share of renewable resources of total electricity generation and production is rather low, but increasing. The share of electricity production from renewable sources of final electricity consumption reached 6.89 % in 2009 (5.17% in 2008), which is below the target (8 %) for 2010 and which can hardly be achieved to date.
The traffic situation nowadays can be characterised by increasing volumes of passenger car transportation, stagnation of freight transportation and an increasing share of environmentally unfriendly modes of transport. In fact, transport figures are gradually getting closer to the situation in EU15. The share of performance of automobile transportation in the total passenger transport volumes reached 62.4 % in 2009, the share of freight road transport in total transport capacities of freight transportation accounted for 74.7 % in 2009 (see Fig.). However, within the EU-27 context, the Czech Republic is still slightly below average with its share of automobile transport in domestic passenger transport.
The Czech Republic’s vehicle fleet of passenger cars is one of the oldest in the EU (approximately 13.6 years on average). Vehicles older than ten years make up about 60 % of the total vehicle number (about 2 600 000 vehicles, see Fig.). In 2009, about 22 % of the passenger car fleet (approx. 1 million vehicles) did not comply with any of the EURO emission standards. However, the situation is getting better and significant improvements have been recorded in recent years as far as the elimination of old cars from the register is concerned. Regarding buses and trucks, the situation is slightly better and their vehicle fleet is younger with more dynamic turnover.
After a period of moderate growth and subsequent stagnation in the early 21st century, the trend in greenhouse gas emissions in the Czech Republic turned to a period of stronger decline after 2007 (see Fig. A and Fig. B). Annual decline in 2008 was 4.1%, which is the largest since 1998. Since 1990, emissions have decreased by 27.5 % to 141.4 Mt CO2eq. (excluding LULUCF emissions and sinks). The Kyoto Protocol commitment (emissions decrease of 8 % by the 2008–2012 control period) has been accomplished. The largest share of emissions is from the energy industry – approximately 42 %, followed by the manufacturing industry (17 %) and mobile sources (mostly transportation) – approximately 14 % (see Fig.). Emissions from mobile sources have almost doubled since 1990. However, the share has not yet reached the average of the share of mobile sources in EU27.
In 2008, the highest absolute decrease in emissions was recorded in the energy sector (4.5 Mt CO2eq. i.e. 4.8 %) and in the sectors industrial processes and use of solvents (1.2 Mt CO2eq. i.e. 7.4 %). After having been increasing since 1994, emissions from mobile sources decreased by 0.5 Mt CO2eq.
The share of CO2 emissions in total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LULUCF) was 85.4 % in 2008, the share of CH4 emissions was 8.2 %, N2O emissions were 5.5 % and the share of fluorine containing gases (F-gases) was 0.9 %. The shares of emissions of individual greenhouse gases in total emissions have been relatively stable for some time, and only a proportion of F gases is increasing somewhat.
Emission intensity is still high but has been decreasing during recent years. Greenhouse gas emissions per capita reached 13.5 t CO2eq. per capita in 2008 (18.4 t CO2eq. per capita in 1990) and are above the average of EU15 (10.15 t CO2eq.). The emission intensity of GDP generation (specific emissions per GDP unit) has also been decreasing. In 2008, it accounted for 46.9 kg CO2eq. per CZK 1 000, which means an annual decrease of 6.2 % and a decrease from 1995 by 38 %. The long-term trends in emission intensity followed so-called relative decoupling when the growth rate of economic performance is faster than that of emissions and generally the pressure on the environment.
The 2020 outlook
The greenhouse gas emissions will decline if the proposed measures are successfully implemented.
Emission projections presented within the fifth National Communication of the Czech Republic on the UNFCCC included three scenarios:
•with measures, i.e. with implemented measures, which came into force in the 1995–2005 period,
•with additional measures, i.e. with measures that have been prepared or are under preparation.
Additional measures included are:
•the Green Investment Scheme,
•measures adopted on the basis of the EU Climate and Energy Package, e.g. continuation of the EU ETS with full or partial auctioning of emission allowances,
•measures introduced on the basis of the existing Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council, laying down emission standards for new passenger cars (COM(2007) 0856).
The results are shown in Figure. According to these projections, in the case of the scenario with measures, a reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions of 12 % between 2005 and 2020 can be expected (122.5 Gg CO2eq. in 2020), the scenario with additional measures predicts a decrease in emissions of 18.4% (113.8 Gg CO2eq. in 2020). However, if no measures are implemented, an increase in emissions of 3.2 % (143.8 Gg CO2eq. in 2020) will be recorded (scenario without measures).
A substantial reduction will occur in industry (an effect of the EU ETS), agriculture and the residential sector (effect of the Green Investment Scheme). Projections of transport emissions are dependent on the shares of modes of transport in the total volume of transport, on development of vehicles and fuels and improvement of the infrastructure.
In the model calculation of the emission projections from energy-production processes, it was assumed that the Temelín nuclear power plant would be in normal operation throughout the monitored period, that the Dukovany nuclear power plant would be reconstructed in order to prolong its lifetime and will be in normal operation throughout the period of interest, and that there will be no limits on petroleum, gas and black coal imports after 2004 and that exports would be approximately 15 TWh annually until 2010, with a decrease to 10 TWh after 2010.
Existing and planned responses
The Czech Republic, as the party of the European Communities, is involved in the international activities and treaties aimed at minimization of climate change and its impacts on population and ecosystems.
The State Environmental Policy (SEP) is currently being updated and the new version will soon be endorsed. In its fourth priority, the policy focuses on climate protection and minimisation of the negative impacts of climate change. One of the main targets of the SEP is the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions. The strategic framework for climate protection consists of the Climate Protection Policy of the Czech Republic, the National Programme to Abate the Climate Change Impacts in the Czech Republic and the State Programme in Support of Energy Savings and the Usage of Renewable Energy sources. The SEP refers to the above mentioned strategies.
A decrease in national GHG emissions can be achieved with the support of EU structural funds within the realisation of operational programmes, namely the Environment operational programme, the Enterprise and innovations operational programme and the Transport operational programme.
The purpose of the Climate Protection Policy, currently being negotiated and finalised, is to supplement and coordinate already existing sectoral policies and measures with the aim of achieving the national targets for the protection of the climate and adaptation to the expected impacts of climate change. The time framework (to 2020) follows from the technical-economic and legislative framework (especially the EU Climate and Energy Package) and the related uncertainty in estimation of costs. The document states that the proposed target, i.e. reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 20 % between 2005 and 2020, is achievable if all the proposed measures are implemented in the way described in general in the document.
The National Programme to Abate the Climate Change Impacts in the Czech Republic is a strategic document of the government of the Czech Republic. The document coordinates the sectoral and cross-cutting policies at a national level and also takes into consideration the requirements of the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP), which became binding for the Czech Republic on accession to the EU. The individual sectoral ministries were entrusted with implementation of the National Programme.
The National Programme, which was prepared according to the requirements of Council Decision 1999/296/EC, introduces both specific reduction (mitigation) measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and also adaptation measures permitting society and ecosystems to adapt to climate change.
Regarding the upcoming measures, the Green Investment Scheme is one of the most important. The programme aims to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the housing sector. The programme will be funded from the sale of emission allowances.
Further information on all documents and measures mentioned is available online (Fifth National Communication to the UNFCCC).
Egypt signed the Convention on 9 June 1992 and ratified it on 5 December 1994. The Convention entered into force on 5 March 1995. Egypt signed Kyoto Protocol on 15 March 1999 and ratified it on 12 January 2005. The Convention entered into force on 16 February 2005.
Egypt considers global climate change as a real threat to its future development in different economic sectors.
- Coastal Zones: Egypt’s Delta with its coastal front on the Mediterranean is considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In addition to the rise in sea level, shoreline erosion, stresses on fisheries and saltwater intrusion in groundwater create major challenges. These factors also produce stressful effects on water and agricultural resources, tourism and human settlements. Fragile and unique ecosystems such as mangrove stands in the Red Sea, which stabilize shorelines and provide a habitat for many species, may also be threatened. A study on the vulnerability of the coastal zone in Alexandria, the second largest city in Egypt, revealed that a 30 cm rise in sea level is expected to occur by 2025, inundating approximately 200 square kilometers. As a result, over half a million inhabitants may be displaced and approximately 70,000 jobs could be lost. Rosetta, one of Egypt’s historical cities, is already suffering from shoreline erosion. An estimated 50-cm rise in sea level could affect one third of the city’s employment with significant economic losses estimated in billions of dollars. Similarly, the city of Port Said is vulnerable to sea level rise with possible impacts on its industrial, transportation and urban sectors. Identified adaptation measures to deal with the impacts on coastal zone include beach reinforcement, construction of seawalls and breakwaters, tightening of legal regulations, integrated coastal zone management, and changes in land use.
- Agriculture: Future climate change scenarios predict a decrease in wheat and maize yields in Egypt threatening national grain production, which is already short of meeting local demand. Conversely, the seed cotton yield is expected to gradually increase. Vulnerability of crops to changes in pest infestation and plant diseases is another potential impact of climate variability. The images below illustrate the damaged caused by blight to potato crops in Giza resulting from little variation in temperature and humidity. Planting different wheat and maize cultivars, as well as changing crop choices in the Egyptian agricultural product mix are among possible adaptation strategies to climate variability. The following chart provides an estimate of the expected change in major crop production in Egypt by the year 2050 due to climate change.
- Water Resources: Egypt’s water supply is primarily dependent on the second largest river in the world, the Nile. More than 95 percent of the water consumed in Egypt is generated outside of its geographical territory. The mean annual rainfall in Egypt varies from a maximum of 180 mm/year on the north coast, which extends for a distance of 1000 km, then decreases to an average of 20 mm near the city of Cairo, and diminishes to as little as 2 mm close to the city of Aswan in upper Egypt. Different scenarios provide widely diverging fluctuations of possible future Nile river flows, from a 30 percent increase to a 78 percent decrease. Water management is thus one of the most important adaptation actions. On the supply-side, adaptation options include measures to improve rain-harvesting techniques, increasing extraction of ground water, recycling water, water desalination, improving water transportation, and water conservation. Adaptation on the demand-side requires minimizing reliance on water and optimizing economic return of its unit volume.
- Human Health: Climate change is expected to have both direct and indirect adverse impacts on human health, which will be aggravated by high population densities. Direct impacts include increased prevalence of vector borne diseases, physiological disorders, skin cancer, eye cataracts, deaths and injuries, respiratory ailments, heat strokes, and heat related illnesses, as well as a weakening of the public health infrastructure. The indirect impacts involve factors such as demographic dislocations and socioeconomic disruptions. However, comprehensive studies that contain detailed estimations and correlations between climate change and human health are still lacking for Egypt.
- Coral Reefs: Red Sea coral reefs are among the most spectacular in the world, boasting a high level of biodiversity with over 1,000 named species and many more yet to be identified. They are considered among the most sensitive ecosystems to long-term climate change. Corals are especially sensitive to variation in sea surface temperatures, and when physiologically stressed, corals may lose symbiotic algae, which supply nutrients and colors. In this stage, corals appear white and are referred to as bleached. While Corals can recover from short-term bleaching, irreversible damage and subsequent mortality can occur by prolonged bleaching. Corals are already stressed by human impacts such as runoff from wastewater and damage from recreational diving and snorkeling. Adaptation strategies have been proposed such as raising public awareness, and monitoring programs for selected hot spots on the Red Sea shore to document the effects of climatic variability on coral reefs. In addition, identification of damage occurring to coral reefs, including bleaching would be valuable.
Egypt’s total GHG emissions in 1990 equaled 116,918 gigagrams (Gg) of carbon dioxide (C02) equivalent, as calculated using the 1995 Global Warming Potential (GWP) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With total GHG sinks in the land use sector estimated at 9,900 Gg of C02 equivalent, the net emissions are equal to 107,018 Gg of C02 equivalent. The following pie chart shows the percentage share of emissions of each of the greenhouse gases in Egypt.
The relative contributions of sources of greenhouse gases in total emissions are presented in the following bar chart, indicating that the energy sector is the main source of GHG emissions. Egypt is 92% dependent on fossil fuels (oil and natural gas). The agricultural sector is the second largest GHG source in the form of methane from rice cultivation, followed by industrial emissions of C02 from the steel and cement industries. The chart displays Egypt’s emissions of GHG by sector in 1990.
The development of Egypt’s GHG projections was designed to match the country’s four five-years plans launched and executed by the Government of Egypt (GOE) starting in 1997 and ending in 2017. This is based mainly on the projection of energy consumption for Egypt, and the GHG emission factors developed by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future energy demand by sector during the period (1990/91-2016/17) has been estimated using the Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP). This is based on the growth rates of total and sector-specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, fuel prices, and the income and elasticity of the price totals.
Total CO2 emissions is expected to increase from nearly 75 million tons in 1990/91 to about 261 million tons in 2016/17, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9%. The industry sector is expected to be the major contributor to CO2 emissions in 2016/17 with a share of about 49%, followed by the electricity sector at 29%, and the transportation sector contributing approximately 14%. Based on a technology assessment study that was undertaken within the support for a national action plan, three GHG mitigation scenarios were developed; “Fuel Substitution”, “Renewable Energy”, and “Energy Efficiency”. Energy savings for the three scenarios are expected to reach about 208 peta joules (PJ) by 2016/17, resulting in reduction in CO2 emissions of 18.4 million tons.
A baseline scenario without mitigation measures has been developed for evaluating the projected CO2 emissions during the study period. Energy prices and income elasticity, previously developed at the Organization for Energy Conservation and Planning (OECP), have also been used to project future levels of energy demand.
National Legislation: Law 4/1994 for the Environment
- Preparation of National Climate Change Action Plan.
- In-depth evaluation of priority mitigation and adaptation technologies/measures and identification of opportunities to promote technology diffusion.
- Assessment of additional resources that Egypt requires to implement the plan.
- Raising public awareness to anticipate and manage the physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change.
- Training of Technical Staff to improve their technical capacities.
- Giving high priority to research on climate change areas: GHG emissions ' inventory and control, Water resources, Food resources, Coastal zones, Energy resources
- Introducing climate change implications in national Planning
- Developing an integrated information decision support system
- Establishing close links with ongoing regional UNDP/GEF projects, and benefiting from joint training programmes.
Egypt’s commitment to contribute to the global effort of facing the threats of climate change is evident through a multitude of initiatives.
- Institutional Initiatives
o National Committee on Climate Change
o Climate Change Capacity Building
o The Energy Efficiency Council (EEC)
- Technology/Market Initiatives
o Technology Cooperation Agreement Pilot Project (TCAPP)
o Promotion of Wind Energy for Electricity Generation
o Fuel Cell Bus Demonstration Project
o Hybrid-Electric Bus Technology in Egypt
o Natural Gas Motorcycles
o Methane Recovery from Landfills
o The Integrated Solar Thermal/Natural Gas Power Plant at Kuraymat
o The Energy Efficiency Improvement and Emissions Reduction Project
o Fuel Switching
- Global Initiatives
o National Strategy Study on Clean Development Mechanisms (NSS-CDM)
GHG emissions decreased by 47.49 % between 1990 and 2007. This decrease was mainly caused by the transition from a planned to a market economy and the successful implementation of the necessary reforms.
In 2007 the total emission of GHGs, measured as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq), was 14 115.63 Gg. Without CO2 from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) the total was 22 018.68 Gg.
In 2007, the most important GHG in Estonia was CO2, contributing 86.71 % to total national GHG emissions expressed in CO2-eq, followed by methane (CH4), 7.83 %, and nitrous oxide (N2O), 4.79 %. Fluorocarbons (‘f-gases’) account for about 0.66 % of total emissions. The Energy sector accounted for 86.69 % of total GHG emissions, followed by agriculture, 6.05%, industrial processes, 4.09 %, and waste, 3.17 %.
According to the Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their GHG emissions to meet the Community’s GHG emission reduction commitments up to 2020, Estonia can increase its GHG emissions by not more than 11 % compared to 2005 (Annex II of the Decision). That means that Estonia should not exceed the level of 21 797.39 Gg CO2-eq of total GHG emissions.
Estonia ratified the Kyoto Protocol on 14 October 2002 (RT II 2002, 26, 111, RT I 2004, 43, 298). The aim of Kyoto Protocol is to decrease amounts of GHG emissions by 5 % during the years 2008 - 2012 compared to the base year of 1990 among Annex I parties.
There are 3 Flexible Mechanisms aimed to reach this purpose:
- joint implementation – JI
- clean development mechanism – CDM
- emissions trading – ET
Two of these mechanisms are used in Estonia: JI and ET.
On 5 May 2004 the Government approved Ambient Air Protection Act (RT I 2004, 43, 298) where § 153 changed the Law for Ratifying Kyoto Protocol. Amendment to the Ambient Air Protection Act from 11 March 2007 regulates the use of JI and the issue of double counting concerning linking the EU Emission Trading Scheme with Kyoto flexible mechanisms.
In 1993 Estonia started cooperation with Sweden on pre-JI projects – activities implemented jointly – where no actual emission reductions were transferred. Altogether 21 projects were implemented. Information on these projects is available at the UNFCCC website.
Estonia has signed Memorandums of Understanding with Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden. Estonia is one of the Parties of the Agreement on a Testing Ground for Application of the Kyoto Mechanisms on Energy Projects in the Baltic Sea Region. So far JI projects have been implemented in cooperation with Austria, Finland, Sweden and the Nordic Environment Finance Corporation as Fund Manager for the Testing Ground Facility. Execution of JI projects brings additional investments to Estonia in the form of technology and knowledge. The main reason for the Estonian companies and project owners being interested lies in the fact that implementing the JI mechanism is a good opportunity for raising additional financing of environmentally friendly energy projects, which might otherwise be economically unfeasible. Estonia has seven early-mover projects that started generating emission reductions before 2008 and for those years Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) will be transferred to the investor countries. During the commitment period 2008-2012 all projects will generate Emission Reduction Units (ERUs). Up to now, eight projects have been approved and implemented, resulting in total emission reductions of 1.47 Mt CO2-eq by 2012.
Emission trading under the EU Emission Trading Scheme
Estonia’s first National Allocation Plan (NAP) for the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS – Directive 2003/87/EC) for years 2005-2007 included 43 installations. District heating installations with a capacity exceeding 20 MW formed the largest group – 20 units – while five major installations owned by AS Eesti Energia generate electricity only, and there was also one combined heat and power plant included; the rest of installations were industrial ones. The first NAP for GHG emission allowances delivered the right to emit 56.9 Mt CO2 during 2005-2007. This was based on the assumption of satisfying increasing electricity consumption in Estonia as well as meeting the opportunity for increasing electricity exports.
The second allocation plan (NAP 2) for the 2008-2012 period adopted by the government comprises 122.8 million allowances (24.6 million per year) from 47 installations. In May 2007 the European Commission endorsed Estonia's national plan with the condition that certain changes would be made, including an essential reduction in the total number of emission allowances applied for. The cleared annual allocation is 12.7 Mt CO2 allowances, 47.8 % less than Estonia had applied for. Based on the decision of the EC, the NAP 2 was brought into force on 20 December 2007 (Decree no. 257). Nevertheless, the legal action was initiated in the European Court of Justice (case T-236/07) against the EC over its decision to reduce the CO2 emission gap under the phase 2 of the EU ETS. In its judgment of 23 September 2009 the European Court of First Instance annulled the European Commission decision, deciding that by imposing a ceiling on emission allowances to be allocated, the Commission had exceeded its powers.
Regarding activities under the Kyoto Protocol, in August 2009 the Government decided to sell excess Assigned Amount Units through the Green Investment Scheme. A special working group with participants from the Ministries of the Environment, Finance, Foreign Affairs and Economic Affairs and Communications was created for conducting negotiations with possible buyers. Agreements will be approved by the government and signed by the Minister of the Environment. The Ambient Air Protection Act is in the process of being amended to add the procedure for international emission trading through Green Investment Scheme.
The development of the main energy indicators until 2020 is forecasted in the Draft National Long-term Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector until 2020.
Policies implemented to reduce emissions of GHGs
In April 2004 the Government approved the National Programme of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction for 2003-2012 (RT L 2004, 59, 990).
The National Greenhouse Gas Abatement Programme 2003-2012 is the only programme where reaching the Kyoto target has been set as a main objective. The main goal of the programme is to ensure compliance with targets set by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The long-term objective of the national programme is a reduction of GHG emissions by 21 % by 2010 compared with the 1999 emission level.
The sub-objectives of the programme are:
- determining the possibilities for reducing anthropogenic emissions of GHGs and promoting measures for reducing human impact of potential climate change;
- developing the flexible mechanism of JI according to the principles of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce GHG emissions;
- determining project themes for Estonia, suitable for JI on the basis of the Kyoto Protocol and preparing a relevant database;
- increasing the energy efficiency of the Estonian economy – reducing energy intensity.
The quantitative targets of the programme by sectors are given in relevant sections of the current report. It has to be emphasised that as the programme was developed in 2002 several items and targets are out of date and the programme therefore needs up-dating. Till now, no research for analysing its implementation has been carried out.
No other legislative arrangements, administrative procedures or programmes have been developed specifically for meeting the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.
Climate and energy package, 2020 targets
In December 2008 the European Parliament adopted a set of legislative documents – the so-called EU climate and energy package – for the gradual transformation of Europe into a low-carbon economy and for increasing energy security. An agreement has been reached on legally binding targets, by 2020:
- to cut GHG emissions by 20 %;
- to establish a 20 % share for renewable energy in final energy consumption;
- to improve energy efficiency by 20 %.
Regarding reduction of GHG emissions, the package contains an offer to go further and commit to a 30 % cut in the event of a satisfactory international agreement being reached.
The Directive 2009/28/EC sets legally binding targets for each EU member state, in order to reach the EU aggregated target of a 20 % share of renewable energy by 2020. It creates cooperation mechanisms for achieving the targets in a cost-effective way. Several administrative barriers and other burdens will be removed, confirming the 10 % target for renewables in transport. Biofuels sustainability criteria are set to ensure that only biofuels that have no negative environmental impact are supported. The directive also has implications for small-scale emitters in sectors including transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. By 2020, emissions from these areas are to be reduced by an average of 10 % compared to 2005, shared out between Member States according to differences in GDP per persona. National targets were set for Member States, together with a linear legally binding trajectory for the period 2013-2020 with annual monitoring and compliance checks.
Estonia has committed itself to achieve by 2020 a share of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption of 25%.
National Energy Efficiency Programme for 2007-2013
An improvement of energy efficiency can be considered as a goal of increasing priority for the government. A new National Energy Efficiency Programme for 2007-2013 has been prepared, through which investments will be made in energy efficiency, relevant information will be made more widely available and consumers will be informed about opportunities to conserve energy. The programme is one of the documents prepared for implementation of the National Long-term Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector Until 2015 that was approved in December 2004. The energy efficiency programme determines areas that need to be prioritised in order to meet fuel and energy saving goals. The programme also sets strategic aims and objectives for priority areas, as well as measures for achieving these objectives. It also takes into account the task of achieving the indicative energy conservation objective set by the Directive 2006/32/EC, the saving of 9 % of final energy consumption during the period of 2008-2016.
The main objectives of the programme are:
- dissemination of energy efficiency information;
- availability of skills and experts;
- increasing efficiency in the consumption, production and transfer of fuels and energy;
- performing tasks arising from the EU energy efficiency policy.
In the programme it is estimated that for investments aimed at increasing efficiency in the fields of consumption, production and transfer of fuels and energy a total of 1.5 billion EEK (€96 million) is needed during the period up to 2013.
The main source of GHGs emission is the energy sector. The most significant among the key emission sources in Macedonia is the energy transformation sector, where the total emission actually originates from thermal power plants based on lignite.
Total CO2-eq emissions in Macedonia in the period 1990-2002 range from 11.9 to 14.4 Mt CO2-eq. Emissions in 2000 equaled 14.318 kt CO2-eq or 7.16 t CO2-eq per inhabitant.
GHGs emission for the period 1990-2002 had decreasing trend, namely by 35% in industrial processes sector and by 22% in agriculture, while it was variable in LUCF sector and unchanged in the waste sector. Growth in GHGs emission has been noted only in energy sector (by 6%). Falling trend in industrial processes and agriculture sectors is due to reduced activities of the national economy during the reporting period.
Evaluation of pressures
Considerable increase in the total GHG emissions by the year 2025 will occur compared to the projected value for the year 2008 (in absolute value of 9,900 kt CO2-eq, or relatively about 71%) if the usual practice is applied without imposing the constraint for GHG emissions reduction (basleine scenario).
The major rise in the electricity-related emissions (absolute difference of 6,400 kt CO2-eq and 78% relative increase to the 2008 value) reflects the so-called black, lignite-based baseline scenario for the national power sector. Under baseline scenario, the other sectors also exhibit significant rise in the GHG emissions, as the 2025 values compared to the 2008 values are 75% (transport), 71% (heating and industry), 60% (agriculture) and 6% (waste).
Evaluation of responses
The situation can be improved if the developmental paths integrate practices/measures leading to GHG emissions reductions. Hence, the first mitigation scenario (as defined in the sectoral analyses) leads to 46% increase of 2025-value of the total emissions compared to 2008- total emissions or absolute difference of 6,400 kt CO2-eq. This increase in the total emissions is further reduced to 32% (absolute difference of 4,000 kt CO2-eq) if the developmental paths follow the second mitigation scenario.
By implementing predicted climate change mitigation measures into development paths of national economy, the average annual growth rate will decrease from 3.6% at 1,4%
Policy context and solution and actions taken by the country
The state could improve if development paths include activities/measures to result in GHG emission reduction. The greatest benefit with mitigation scenarios is related to energy sector. Namely, relative increase of emission in this sector is reduced to 14% under the second mitigation scenario as a result from the introduction of gas based plants for combined production, reduced consumption of electricity for the value of major consumers and increased use of renewable energy sources. Currently, the Government of the Republic of Macedonia works on the development of the National strategy for comprehensive energy development by 2025 with a vision by 2050 and National strategy for renewable energy sources. The Second National Communication on Climate Change has been adopted.
With regard to other sectors, the result in waste sector is notable, where the relative increase of 6% under the baseline scenario is brought to negative relative increase (-13%) under the two mitigation scenarios; this means that the GHG emission values for 2005 under the mitigation scenario amount 13% less compared to the corresponding values for 2008, due to the introduction of technology for landfill gas combustion at several landfills in the country. Other sectors contribute insignificantly to total emission reduction, considering that relative difference between baseline and mitigation scenarios ranges between 2 and 4%.
Existing and planned responses
The Ministry of Environment and Physical Planing is the body of the state administration responsible to coordinate activities concering Climate Change. In the Republic of Macedonia, these activities are divided on a strategic level, legislative and institutional levels, and bilateral, regional and international cooperation.
With efforts to emphasize the importance,devotion and obligations for activities towards Climate Change actions, basic documents which are developed are addressing the climate change issues as part of the First and the Second National Communication on Climate Change. They include data on GHGs emission by sources and sinks (GHG Inventory), climate change scenarios, analysis of the most vulnerable sectors in relation to climate change, proposed measures and actions for climate change abatement and adaptation, activities of public awareness improvement, education, etc. The Second National Communication on Climate Change was adopted by the Government of the Republic of Macedonia in December 2008, and the First in 2005.
National Strategy for the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol for the first period of commitments 2008-2012 was adopted in February 2008 and it contains institutional and technical recommendations for projects implementation under this mechanism.
One of the most important strategic documents on national level - National Strategy for Sustainable Development - identifies the climate change issue as one of the key cross-cutting issues affecting several sectors, such as energy, agriculture, industry. Other strategic documents dealing with climate change include the Second National Environmental Action Plan, National Strategy for Approximation with EU in the area of environment, National Strategy for Environmental Investments, draft Strategy for Comprehensive Energy Development, etc.
National climate change indicators have been developed and the issue is subject of analysis in the state of the environment report 2010.
Climate change issues are treated among global environmental issues in the Law on Environment which provides legal basis for the developemnt of the National Communications on Climate Change and plans for mitigation and adaptation. Specific article on Clean Development Mechanism has been introduced to specify the competences of the MEPP in implementing coordination activities in accordance with the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol.
For the purpose of implementing the projects based on the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, three Memoranda of Understanding have been signed (with the relevant ministries of Italy and Slovenia and UNDP Carbon Fund). Cooperation with the Governments of the Kingdom of Norway, Austria and cooperation at regional level with the Regional Environmental Centre, Energy community, Regional council for cooperation, etc.
The Ministry takes part as partner in the implementation of project and programme activities of other institutions as well, such as Ministry of Health, Ministry of Economy and academic institutions in the frames of the EU Programme for research.
In 1999 the Parliament of Georgia ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
National GHG inventory
The years 1987-1997 were considered and assessed in Georgia’s first national inventory of greenhouse gases (GHGs) undertaken during the preparation of the Initial National Communication (INC). In the Second National Communication (SNC), the GHG inventory continued into the 1998-2006 period. Calculations were based on the IPCC 1996 Guidelines and were specified under the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (GPG) recommendations. For the first time the QA/QC procedures and uncertainty analysis for key sectors wre implemented. In the INC, the base year was 1990, while in the SNC, the base year is 2000.
The aggregated GHG emissions from the territory of Georgia underwent significant changes during the last two decades. First of all, CO2 emissions fell drastically in the first decade (1990-2000) by more than ten times. CH4 emissions have also declined, but only by 23%, and those of N2O by 49%. In 2006, the emissions of CO2 and N2O increased by 58% and 33% respectively, while those of CH4 decreased by 17% compared to 2000. The sectoral distribution of emissions for the same years has indicated that the main reason for such a sharp decrease in CO2 emissions is a fall in the energy and industry sectors, caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union’s so-called “planned economy” and consequent disruption of existing economic ties between the former republics. The agriculture and waste sectors have been less responsive to these processes. From the end of 1990s, Georgia’s economy began to revive, bringing about some increases in CO2 emissions, mainly accounted for by the significant rise in transportation subsectors. The definite decrease in CH4 emissions for the recent period of 2000-2006 is attributed to the marked decline in leakages from the natural gas transmission and distribution system, as a result of the improved maintenance of gas pipelines.
Based on the experience gained through compiling the second national GHG inventory, both short-term (2009-2012) and long-term GHG inventory strategies have been developed. Shortterm objectives include annual updating of GHG inventory and the improvement of inventory quality control process, as well as the improvement of legislative measures. The objective of the long-term strategy, to be implemented from 2012, is to ensure a comprehensive and sustainable national inventory process and the implementation of regulations required under the EU legislation.
Steps planned to implement the Convention
As a first step towards implementing its obligations under the UNFCCC, Georgia prepared an Initial National Communication in 1997-1999. Since then a number of projects have been implemented in the country, aimed at studying various aspects of climate change and preparing for mitigation and adaptation proposals.
During 2006-2009, Georgia has prepared its SNC to the UNFCCC. In the process, the national GHG inventory has been undertaken; future climate change scenarios have been developed; and the vulnerability of different ecosystems and economic sectors to current and expected climate change has been assessed. The adaptation projects were prepared, along with the planning of GHG abatement measures, and a number of activities in raising public awareness were conducted.
Based on the assessments and results obtained in the SNC, as well as other past and ongoing projects in Georgia, short and long-term climate change strategies have been prepared. The strategies do not yet cover the whole territory of the country, but are focused on the priority regions selected during the stocktaking exercise.
The strategies aim to remove barriers in the following six areas: enhancing the local potential for the implementation of UNFCCC principles; ensuring the sustainability of the national GHG inventory; assessing the vulnerability to climate change and adaptation measures; mitigating GHG emissions and raising public awareness.
Key target groups considered in the Strategy are: the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministries of Environment, Energy, Economic Development, Agriculture, Health, Education and Finance, the Parliament of Georgia, the Department of Statistics, the private sector, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), research institutions, local administrations and municipalities, farmers and rural populace, teachers and lecturers, businessmen and mass-media representatives.
Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change
The vulnerability of three priority areas has been assessed based on the future climate change scenarios. These priority areas are the Black Sea coastal zone, Dedoplistskaro and Kvemo Svaneti regions.
Climate change scenarios. The current change in climate elements in Georgia, and in priority regions in particular, has been assessed based on actual observation data. Mean air temperature and temperature extremes, precipitation, relative humidity, wetting regimes and wind were investigated, as well as trends of extreme events (high winds, drought, landslides, floods, etc.), characteristic to each of the examined regions.
The trends of change in the mean annual air temperature, the mean annual precipitation, and the moistening regime, were estimated between the two time periods 1955–1970 and 1990-2005. In all three priority regions, statistical analysis has revealed an increased tendency for both mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation from the first (1955-1970) to the second (1990-2005) period. The increment of temperature and precipitation in West Georgia appeared to vary in the range of 0.2–0.40C and 8-13% respectively, while in East Georgia the relevant values were found to be 0.60C and 6%. The changes in air temperature absolute minima and absolute maxima also demonstrated a warming tendency in both the warm and the cold periods of the year.
Two regional models have been used for the assessment of future climate scenarios: PRECIS and MAGICC/SCENGEN. The MAGICC/SCENGEN model was used for selecting the most suitable GCM for East and West Georgia, for each season and each climatic parameter. Two runs of the PRECIS model were used for the forecast of future localised changes. The results of these models in West Georgia show an increase by 3.50C in mean annual temperature to the end of this century, accompanied with a decrease in precipitation by about 6%, while in East Georgia the air temperature is expected to rise by 4.10C, and sums of precipitation could fall down to 14%. This process of reverse changes in temperature and precipitation is anticipated to be sharpened in summer when both tendencies are more distinct than in other seasons.
Black Sea coastal zone. Georgia’s coastal zone is affected by a variety of geophysical processes (tectonic movements, rising sea levels, tidal waves, floods, underwater currents, river sedimentation, etc.), some of which are being intensified by current climate change. This zone is considered the most vulnerable to climate change. In the past century, the mean rate of sea-level rise (eustasy) at the eastern coast of the Black Sea was 2.6 mm/yr. In the years 1924-1996, the sea surface temperature decreased by 1.00C. However, in 1990-2006 it increased by 1.30C, resulting in the warming of the sea surface temperature by 0.20C. Owing to the increase in maximum wind velocities, the frequency of powerful storms (force 5 to 7) has increased by three times in Poti and Batumi during the past four decades.
A number of indicators have been identified (eustasy, storms, sedimentation and changes in sea surface water temperature) for assessing the vulnerability of various coastal zone areas to climate change (R. Rioni Delta, R. Chorokhi Delta, lower reaches of R. Rioni and the Sokhumi coastal area). This assessment has indicated that the most vulnerable part of the coastal zone is the R. Rioni Delta surrounding the city of Poti. A number of adaptation projects have been developed for the most vulnerable areas to meet the challenges of climate change in this century.
Dedoplistskaro region. The Dedoplistskaro region (DTR), due to its territories under threat of desertification, has been selected as a second priority region for assessing the vulnerability to climate change, and adequate adaptation measures have been developed to mitigate this desertification process.
Extreme weather events such as drought and high winds are significantly affecting agriculture, the only developed economic sector in the region. Under the impact of climate change, the severity of these phenomena has increased markedly in the past 50 years: the annual duration of the drought period has extended from 54 to 72 days, and the frequency of its occurrence has risen two-fold. The frequency of high winds ( 30 m/s) has increased by five times since the beginning of 1980s.
Analysis of meteorological records has indicated that for the past half-century, the mean annual temperature has increased by 0.60C, and the mean annual precipitation by 6%. The projected decrease in precipitation by 14% by the year 2100 could increase the aridity of local climate, transforming local semi-arid landscapes into arid semi-desert and desert landscapes.
With the threat of potential aridisation of the region’s two rivers – the Alazani and Iori – in mind, the main water suppliers of the territory have been assessed through the hydrological model WEAP. The results have demonstrated the possibility of an 8% decrease in the annual runoff of R. Alazani in the period 2071-2100. However, the modelling of water deficit in the irrigation systems has shown that even in case of a 50% decrease in the river runoff, and the increase in water consumption by the same percentage, the demand will be met in all months except August. The same methodology applied to R. Iori has revealed an anticipated 11% decrease in river runoff and the impossibility of meeting a future water demand increase of even 10%.
The computer model CropWat has been applied to assess the influence of climate change on water deficit for some crops and pastures. The shortage of water for winter wheat, sunflower and pastures was revealed in the past (1960-2005) and assessed for the projected period 2021-2100. Owing to the current minimum anthropogenic interference (arable land is not irrigated, wind belts are exterminated, part of the land is abandoned, etc.) the situation in the region is in the best position to reflect the impact of present climate conditions on the crops and their yield.
Kvemo Svaneti. Kvemo Svaneti (the mountainous region) has been identified as an ecosystem vulnerable to various disastrous weather events, significantly enhanced by global warming. As a result of the increased frequency and intensity of these phenomena (floods, landslides and mud torrents), land erosion has intensified and greatly damaged agriculture, forests, roads and communications.
As a result of the intensification of landslides and floods, the population of the Lentekhi region has decreased by 40% since 1986, and it is believed that this process will continue until decisive adaptation measures are taken to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change in the region. The mean annual air temperature and level of precipitation in this region have increased by 0.40C and 106 mm (8%) respectively, for the past 50 years.
Analysis of observation data on floods for the period of 1967–1989 has demonstrated that in the second half of the period the recurrence of floods grew by more than two-fold, and the maximum discharge has increased by 9%. At the same time, the duration of floods has decreased by 25%, which could explain the rise in intensity and severity of floods.
Since 1980, the number of landslides has increased by 43%, reaching a total of 117 at present. This especially steep rise in the number of landslides was provoked by the abundant snowfall in the winter of 1986-1987. The increase in heavy precipitation for the last two decades in Kvemo Svaneti has also caused an almost two-fold growth in the frequency of mud streams.
Despite sufficient provisions of precipitation in the Lentekhi region, its territory is affected by drought from time to time, the duration and recurrence of which have increased by 38% and 17% respectively since 1991, compared with the 1956-1972 period. Forests represent one of the main natural riches of Kvemo Svaneti, covering about 60% of its territory. For the last 15-20 years, the growing spread of pests and diseases has been observed in the forests of the region.
Assessments of Central Caucasus glaciers, including in the Svaneti region, have indicated that up to the present time the total area of glaciers in Kvemo Svaneti may have decreased by 25%, and their total volume may have been reduced from 1.2 km3 to 0.8 km3. Projected rises in temperature by the year 2050 may result in the total disappearance of Kvemo Svaneti glaciers.
Health. This is the first time that the health sector has been studied in the SNC. The focus was on the priority regions considered above. This survey indicates that elderly people are the most sensitive category to changes in climate elements.
Malaria and leishmaniasis have been identified as the diseases posing most risk due to climate change. Analysis of the distribution of these vector borne diseases has indicated that they are spread predominantly in the far eastern part of Georgia – in the Kakheti region, which includes Dedoplistskaro, and in Tbilisi. From the total of 438 malaria cases detected in the period 1996-2005, 319 cases (73%) were attributed to the Kakheti region. The dynamic of leishmaniasis cases in Tbilisi for the same period of time shows an increase from 15 cases in 1995 to 160 cases in 2005. The current number of registered cases is not high enough to indicate that there is an epidemic of leishmaniasis, and moreover of malaria, in Georgia. Nevertheless, a growth in the mean annual temperature is expected to increase the frequency of these diseases.
Policies and measures to mitigate climate change
The national GHG inventory for the years 2000-2006 has shown that the energy sector, including transportation, is the leading sector in emissions in Georgia. To estimate the future trends of GHG emissions under different mitigation policies, the software model LEAP has been applied. Three scenarios have been assumed for the evaluation of possible future trends of Georgia’s energy sector: the baseline scenario (BAU), alternative scenario 1 (Split Public) and alternative scenario 2 (State Policy). The quantitative characteristics of energy sector evolution projected for 2025 are discussed for all three scenarios, covering residential, industry and service, agricultural and other subsectors, as well as the electricity generation features for the same period.
GHG emissions calculated for the entire energy sector appeared to be sufficiently sensitive to different scenarios. The results have clearly shown how different measures influence the GHG emissions. In particular, they demonstrate the role of Government policy (State Policy scenario) in reducing GHG emissions. The modelling results show that the energy efficiency measures and renewable energy savings are 6% under alternative scenario 1, and 12% under alternative scenario 2.
Calculations performed for the power generation sector have demonstrated the possibility of reducing emissions from this sector by increasing the share of renewable resources such as wind and hydro. For example, according to the State Policy scenario, the share of renewable resources in the power generation sector will be maximised in 2025, thus reducing the GHG emissions to zero by this year.
Conclusions and recommendations are supplemented by the National GHG Mitigation Strategy for the years 2010-2025, in which different measures are discussed, aimed at the abatement of GHG emissions, the creation of an enabling environment in the electricity generation sector, and fuel switching in energy demand, as well as in heat and energy consumption. The CDM is regarded as an efficient tool for the practical implementation of the GHG Mitigation Strategy. In 2002, the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources was appointed as the Designated National Authority (DNA). Four CDM Project Idea Notes (PINs) have been prepared for submission to the DNA.
The climate in Greece is changing. Since the end of the 1990s, the temperature has been increasing, especially during summer. The increase is lower in winter. According to the results from worldwide climate models, average temperatures in Greece are projected to increase from 3.1°C to 5.1°C by 2100, with an average value of 4.3°C, given any error that the downscaling method can bring in this estimate.
Regarding precipitation, there is a decreasing trend on an annual and seasonal level, mainly over the period 1980–2000, with increasing trends over the next years. Summer precipitation in Greece is projected to decrease, whereas winter precipitation is projected to increase. The intensities, patterns and duration of heavy rainfall are heavily affected by the local scale. The intensity of summer rainfalls increases, while presenting a decreasing trend for the winter and annual rainfalls. Only Athens presents a positive trend, due to heavy rainfalls over the last years.
The key drivers and pressures
The main driving forces of environmental pressures on climate change are related to population and economic trends, transport, energy and agricultural demand and household consumption.
According to the 2001 census, the population of Greece increases by the rates given in Table 1 (NSSG, 2009). The number of individuals per household is estimated to decrease annually, reflecting ageing of population and new living arrangements (Table 2, MINENV, 2009).
Final energy consumption in Greece has increased by 57.2 % between 1990 and 2007. Transport represents its highest share (38.7 % in 2007, increased by 48 % since 1990). The fastest growing sector, but with low share, is services (Figure 1 GR – EEA CSI 027).
Energy intensity has been decreasing steadily (-15.1 % over the period 2000-2007), reflecting a weak decoupling of total primary energy consumption (increase by 13.4 %) from GDP (increase by 33.6 %) (Figure 2 GR-EEA CSI 028). This results from the rapid GDP growth, the structure of the Greek economy (e.g. small industrial base, large international shipping sector) and EU funded investments to improve energy efficiency in industry (IEA, 2006).
Fossil fuels continue to dominate total energy consumption, but environmental pressures have been reduced, partly due to a significant switch from coal and lignite to relatively cleaner natural gas. Renewable energy sources together with natural gas (shares 5.2 % and 10.8 %, respectively in 2007) have been the growing energy sources between 2000 and 2007 (Figure 3 GR – EEA CSI 029).
The shares of the specific energy sources in renewable energy consumption in 1990 and 2007 are presented in Figure 4 (GR – EEA CSI 030). Significant growth will be needed to meet the indicative target of a 12 % share of renewable energies in 'primary' energy consumption in the EU by 2010.
The share of renewable electricity in gross electricity consumption has increased from 5 % in 1990 to 12.1 % in 2006. Hydropower dominates renewable electricity production in Greece (share of 76.9 % in 2006) (Figure 5 GR – EEA CSI 031). Additional contributions from renewable electricity should be made in order to meet the overall renewables target of 18 % by 2020.
Base year GHG emissions in Greece (1990 for CO2, CH4, and Ν2Ο - 1995 for F-gases) were estimated at 107.71 Mt CO2 eq. In 2007, greenhouse gas emissions (without LULUCF) were 131.85 Mt CO2 eq, showing an increase of 22.4 % compared to base year emissions (1990 for CO2, CH4, and Ν2Ο - 1995 for F-gases) and of 24.9 % compared to 1990 levels (Figures 6, 7; GR - EEA CSI 010). This increase testifies that Greece is in compliance with the +25 % Kyoto Protocol target.
The Shares of GHG emissions by sector in 1990 and 2007 are given in Figure 8, whereas their changes over this period in Figure 9. Transport (excluding international air and maritime transport) was responsible for 18 % of the total GHG emissions in 2007. Transport GHG emissions by categories and gas, are given in Table 2 (GR - EEA TERM02).
The 2020 outlook
Greece is anticipated to achieve its +25 % Kyoto target by 2010 through reductions from existing measures alone. With the existing domestic policies and measures in place, the 2010 emissions (without LULUCF) are expected to reach a level of +23.53 % compared to base-year emissions, while the additional domestic policies and measures could bring a smaller increase by +21.92 % compared to base-year emissions (Figures 10, 11; GR – EEA CSI 011).
Between 1990 and 2007, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Greece decreased in all sectors, except transport and energy (excluding transport) (Figure 12). A similar pattern is projected between 2007 and 2010. Significant reductions in greenhouse emissions have been achieved between 1990 and 2007 from existing measures in the sectors of waste and agriculture. In 2010, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to ‘stabilise’ to 2007 levels, as a result of additional measures in the energy sector and transport.
Possible impacts on the natural environment and human health have not been estimated.
Existing and planned responses
Greece’s climate change policy, strategy and programme plans are set out in the National Climate Change Programme’. The First National Programme was adopted in 1995, the Second in 2002 and revised in 2007. All three iterations placed heavy emphasis on achieving GHG emission reductions commitments by: changing the fuel mix to include a higher percentage of natural gas and renewable energy sources; improving energy efficiency and conservation in all sectors; effecting structural changes in agriculture and transportation; reducing emissions in waste management; and (to serve longer-term needs) expanding research and development efforts.
Greece participates in the EU emission trading scheme (ETS) for CO2, which has been operational since 2005. In 2006, a Bureau for GHG Emissions Trading was set up within YPEHODE, and the National Centre for the Environment and Sustainable Development was assigned responsibility for the management of the national registry. Despite the relatively low CO2 allowances prices, the EU ETS has stimulated the Public Power Corporation (PPC) to undertake large-scale efficiency improvement programmes at lignite-fired power stations.
The key drivers and pressures
The economic restructuring of the 1990s played an important role in reducing domestic emissions of greenhouse gases. Since then, there has been no significant change in total emissions.
In 2007, total emissions of greenhouse gases in Hungary were 75.9 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents. This is 5 % below the ten-year average of the quite stable period of 1996-2005. Taking into account also the mostly carbon-absorbing processes in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, the net emissions of Hungary were 71.8 million tonnes CO2 eq.
In 2007, the energy sector (including energy industries, fugitive emissions from fuels as well as the transport sector) accounted for 75 % of total GHG emissions and agriculture was the second-largest emitting sector with 13 %. Industrial processes contributed 7 % to emissions, while the waste sector (including solid waste and wastewater treatment - with the former showing an increasing tendency) represented 5 % of total emissions.
The energy sector plays a key role in emissions in Hungary, since the significant part of energy consumption is covered by fossil energy sources, over 75 % of which is imported - a fact that is disadvantageous from the aspect of both climate change mitigation and energy security. Renewable energy production accounted for just 4.9 % of total energy use.
In the last two decades, total energy consumption has been decoupled from economic growth whereas - after almost two decades of decreasing or stagnating tendencies - in the last few years both electricity and total energy consumption have reached higher levels again.
Similar to global trends, transport is the most dynamically increasing category within the energy sector both in terms of energy consumption and its negative impacts on climate change.
The share of the transport sector within total GHG emissions rose from 6.44 % to 16.2 % between 1985 and 2005. Its share in the final energy consumption amounts to 21 %, with road transportation being the most significant emitter.
Due to technical developments (changes in the fuel mix, etc.), specific CO2 emissions have been reduced significantly, but this decrease is being overcompensated by the rising number of cars and vehicle-kms, and a significant growth is expected in the emissions of the sector. The shift from climate-friendly transportation towards more emission-intensive ones (from public to individual transport, from railway to road transportation) is an unfavourable trend to be dealt with.
The industrial restructuring completed at the beginning of 1990s has resulted in notable decreases in energy use and in emissions, but no similar change is expected in the medium term. Current energy consumption by industry accounts for one-third of the total direct energy consumption, showing slight fluctuations in the past few years.
Agriculture is the second-largest emitting sector in Hungary: intensive agricultural production plays an important part in emissions because of the high CH4 and N2O emissions from animal husbandry and plant production..
However, the LULUCF result in sinking almost 6 % of the total emissions and 8 % of the total CO2 emissions. Forests sequestrate approx. 4–5 million tonnes of CO2 a year.
The 2020 outlook
By ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, Hungary committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 6 %. As of 2008, the emissions were 34 % lower than in the base year (average of 1985-87).
In order to achieve the EU-level targets, a new Energy Policy Concept has been adopted by the Hungarian Parliament which has set the aim of increasing the share of renewables to 14.9-15.9 %. The National Energy Efficiency Action Plan aims to improve energy efficiency by 1 % annually between 2008 and 2016.
The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) provides a comprehensive framework for all targets and actions with respect to reducing GHG emissions and mitigating the effects of climate change. According to the long‑term (2050) vision of the NCCS:
- As a result of energy efficiency improvements and energy savings, Hungary’s current electricity consumption rate will be reduced by 70 %, and only 5 % of the current heat consumption will be required to ensure pipelined hot water supply and the operation of other industrial processes.
- Almost 40 % of the stock of dwellings will be operated without any greenhouse gas emissions. The emissions from buildings without passive energy systems will also be decreased by 75 % as a result of modernisations carried out to reduce energy consumption.
- By transforming the transport policy, non-motorised forms and public transport will have priority. In addition, motorised vehicles will be modified and will be characterised by lower specific consumption rates which will result in drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and vehicles with innovative technologies will come into general use in both private and public transport.
- Industrial GHG emissions will also decrease significantly as a result of the lower energy needs and lower specific raw-material consumption rates.
- In agriculture, integrated and ecological farming with low chemical uses will become predominant. Through the implementation of the National Afforestation Programme, Hungary's forest coverage will increase to 27.4 %.
Existing and planned responses
The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) was prepared pursuant to Act No. 60 in 2007 on the framework for the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and of the Kyoto Protocol. In accordance with national commitments, the NCCS was elaborated for the first time for the period of 2008-2025.
Primarily, the NCCS makes an inventory of the effects exerted on the natural flora and fauna, the human environment, as well as on human health, water management, agriculture, forest management and the built environment.
The objectives of the National Climate Change Strategy will be implemented by National Climate Change Programmes (NCCPs) to be prepared on a biannual basis.
A large-scale scientific study under the title VAHAVA (in English CHER, from the first letters of the words CHange, Effect, Response) served as basis for the NCCP. The underlying study was financed by the Ministry of Environment and Water and carried out by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, with the participation of around 200 experts. The study covered all fields and sectors, in order to identify possible mitigation and adaptation measures. Among others, agriculture, field cultivation, forestry, fruit gardening, animal stock-raising, human health, freshwater management and flood protection, built environment and rural development, building sector and architecture, and national security were analysed in the study. Its considerations serve as guidelines for the elaboration of both the sectoral and horizontal tasks.
Thus, various other national strategies and programmes involve short and medium-term emission reduction targets and actions (for instance Energy Policy Concept, Hungarian Energy Efficiency Action Programme, National Renewable Energy Strategy, Transport Policy)
The Hungarian GIS (Green Investment Scheme), financed by the revenues from international emissions trading brought about by the Kyoto Protocol, furthers mitigation actions against climate change. First, tenders were announced for buildings made by industrialised technologies (Panel programme) in 2009, then for existing conventional buildings, later on for low-energy consumption buildings ('eco', or passive houses). In the long term, investments and technology improvements are to be made for energy production, transport and conversion (district heating systems).
With the help of national and EU funds, significant improvements have been made in several fields:
- Improving energy efficiency
- Extending the share of renewable
- Enhancing the infrastructure of combined carriage, investing into the attractive means of public transport and into non-motorised forms of transportation
- Initiating agricultural environmental management
- Incentives to increase the forest area, to maintain existing forests, and to encourage close-to-natural management and protection of forests
- Better waste and wastewater management.
The household and institutions sector still have significant emission mitigation potential given that households have been less affected by prior emission mitigation measures and this sector is responsible for about one-third of the total emissions.
Basically, the activities directed at mitigating the emissions should be implemented in an order reflecting their cost efficiency. The application of this principle will ensure reaching the highest rate of emission mitigation on a given cost level.
Regarding adaptation to climate change, the following fields are in the focus of present and future actions:
- Biodiversity protection (e.g. habitat reconstruction, habitat enhancement)
- Developments in urban rainwater and inland water management, increasing flood risk management and flood protection
- Accelerating plant improvement and selecting the most appropriate variety range based on adaptation capacity studies, increasing the mosaic-like character of the landscape
- Adopting forest fire prevention measures, preventing damage to ecological network
- Integrating sustainability aspects into urban planning
The efficiency of the group of measures listed above can be boosted by horizontal activities (e.g. education, and research and development).
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Israel's national greenhouse gas inventory relates to emissions and removals of the three main greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and to indirect greenhouse gases which are precursors of tropospheric ozone: carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). It also relates to sulfur dioxide (SO2), an aerosol precursor which has a cooling effect on climate. In 2009, for the first time, data for hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) were collected, and these gases will be included in future inventories.
By far the largest anthropogenic source of CO2 emissions is the oxidation of carbon when fossil fuels are burned to produce energy. In 2007, about 65 million tons of CO2 were emitted by this process compared to 50 million tons in 1996. The energy industries (power plants and oil refineries) are the largest source of CO2 emissions (65%), followed by transport (23%). Cement production is the most important non-energy industrial process emitting CO2. The continuous expansion of forests in Israel allows for only minor removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.
The decomposition of solid waste is the largest source of methane emissions in Israel, constituting 7% of the total CO2 equivalent (CO2 eq) emissions in 2007. Total methane emissions in 2007 were estimated at 250,000 tons for solid waste, 5,900 tons for domestic wastewater and 22,300 tons for industrial wastewater. Methane is also produced through two processes in agriculture associated with domestic livestock husbandry: enteric fermentation and manure management. In 2007, annual methane emissions in the agricultural sector amounted to 44 thousand tons, 1.2% of the total CO2 eq emissions. About 77% are contributed by enteric fermentation and about 23% by manure management.
The contribution of N20 emissions from agriculture is dominant. Emissions are attributed to direct emissions from agricultural soils, manure management and animal grazing and indirect emissions from agriculture. N20 emissions from agriculture totaled 5.16 thousand tons in 2007. The inventory demonstrates the following with regard to indirect GHGs:
• NOx: From 1996 to 2007, NOx emissions from fuel combustion decreased at a rate of 7%, mostly due to improved vehicle technology.
• CO: From 1996 to 2007, CO emissions decreased at a rate of more than 50%, mostly due to improved vehicle technology.
• NMVOC: From 1996 to 2007, NMVOC emissions, which are emitted almost exclusively by transportation sources, have increased at a rate of 11%.
• SO2: From 1996 to 2007, SO2 emissions have decreased at a rate of close to 40%, mostly due to enhanced fuel quality and technological improvements in power plants.
Total emissions grew by approximately 23% in the period between 1996 and 2007. Emissions per capita and GDP, however, decreased by 3% and 17% respectively. The major GHG, CO2, dominated the increase in emissions with a 29% increase rate, followed by N20 with an increase rate of 56%. CH4 had a mediating effect with a 24% decrease rate due to the collection of biogas in landfills. Within the energy sector, responsible for 85% of total GHG emissions in 2007, the energy industries, which constituted the main source of emissions, increased their emissions by 49%, followed by transport with a 38% increase rate; manufacturing industries and agriculture decreased their emissions by 9% and 82%, respectively. Emissions from industrial processes grew by 29%, while removals from forestry and the land-use change sector grew by 8%. Following are some of the other salient findings for the period 1996-2007:
• Methane emissions decreased by 24%, mostly due to a 33% decrease in emissions from solid waste handling.
• N20 emissions grew by 55%, with agriculture contributing an increase rate of 35%, mostly from agricultural soils, and energy contributing a 26% increase rate.
• Emissions of most of the indirect GHGs decreased, except NMVOCs, which remained unchanged.
Emissions of NOx, CO and SO2 decreased by 8%, 53% and 29%, respectively. This trend is mostly attributed to improvements in the energy industries and transport.
Existing Policies and Measures
Climate Change Policy and Government Decisions
In line with Israel's environmental policy, various actions have been taken in recent years to improve environmental quality and promote sustainable development. Some contribute directly toward the mitigation of GHG emissions or towards adaptation to climate change. Others contribute indirectly to the achievement of these goals. In this context, five landmarks in Israel's environmental policy during the past decade are noteworthy:
1. Setting a target for assimilation of renewable energy in Israel.
2. Paving the path towards sustainable development policy.
3. Setting responsibilities and obligations for reduction of air pollution.
4. Preparing a climate change plan for Israel.
5. Setting a target for 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 compared to a business as usual scenario.
In addition to actions taken at the policy level, many mitigation measures have been taken by various stakeholders in Israel:
• During the second half of the last decade, the electricity industry introduced natural gas into the energy mix of Israel. New combined-cycle power plants designed to operate on natural gas were constructed and existing plants were converted to natural gas. By the end of 2009, natural gas composed nearly 35% of the total electricity production capacity in Israel.
• Since the mid-1970s the residential sector is required by law to use solar water heating systems.
• Two solar thermal power plants at a capacity of 50 MW are in planning in the southern Negev region of Israel.
• Economic incentive measures for renewable energy have been developed by the Israel Public Utilities Authority – Electricity (PUA) for the sale of renewable energy to the IEC and the related feed-in tariff and licensing arrangements for solar thermal generation.
Initiatives for the promotion of wind energy and biogas and bio-diesel energy have been set in motion in recent years.
• The MoEP and the S. Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology prepared
a protocol for a GHG registry, intended to develop capabilities and tools for use by the private sector, industries and organizations to estimate their reduction potential.
• In 2004, a Designated National Authority for authorizing Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in Israel was established, with nearly 50 projects submitted for approval to date, of which 16 have been registered with the UN.
• The introduction of catalytic converters in gasoline vehicles led to a reduction of total CO emissions from gasoline vehicles from 352 thousand tons in 2000 to 190 thousand in 2008.
• In 2009, a major energy conservation campaign was inaugurated by the MNI, the MoEP and the IEC to raise awareness of energy efficiency among the general public, with major emphasis on energy efficient appliances.
• In February 2008, the mayors of major cities in Israel signed the Convention of the Forum 15 for Reducing Air Pollution and for Climate Protection (CCP Israel).
• Numerous standards related to climate change mitigation were published in recent years, including
a green building standard, a standard on the energy rating of residential buildings and a standard for energy systems management.
• In July 2007, a landfill levy entered into effect, which aims to reflect the true cost of landfilling and thereby allow competition with advanced treatment methods such as recycling and energy recovery.
• Most of Israel's operational landfills collect methane, with a 40% collection rate from total methane emissions from this source.
• Twelve wastewater treatment plants collect methane from sludge. Some use the collected methane to produce energy, while others transfer it to a thermal treatment plant for burning.
• A dairy farm reform has been completed which included construction of manure storage facilities, installation of drainage systems to reduce pollution from dairy cow wastes, and construction of biogas facilities. A similar program has recently started in the egg laying sector.
• Israel has one of the highest ratios of planted forests to natural woodlands (2:1). The planted forest area in Israel grew between 2000 and 2008 from 941 to 980 km2.
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change
In comparison to the years 1961-1990, the A1B scenario of the IPCC, predicts a rise of 1.5° C in Israel's average temperature by 2020. According to IPCC scenarios A2 and B2, average temperature in the years 2071-2100 is expected to increase further by 5° C and 3.5° C, respectively. In addition, a 10% decrease in precipitation is expected by 2020, reaching a 20% decrease by 2050. Another expected impact is an increase in the number of extreme events in Israel, along with a decrease in the amounts of seasonal rain. The differences in average precipitation from year to year are expected to increase compared to today. Furthermore, the intervals between dry spells and wet spells are also expected to increase. This indicates a tendency towards a more arid climate in Israel, which conforms to the IPCC forecasts for 2100.
The preparation of a vulnerability assessment to climate change and an adaptation plan to confront potential risks and opportunities is of vital importance to Israel due to its lack of adequate water resources and the vulnerability of the semiarid climate. To address the challenges of climate change adaptation, the MoEP set up an interministerial steering committee in 2006 to check the potential impacts of climate change on Israel. By the summer of 2008, an initial report was published which addresses the anticipated impacts of climate change on Israel and presents interim recommendations on adaptation measures in each of the following sectors: water, , agriculture, coastal zone, public health, biodiversity, energy and infrastructure and the economy. These recommendations are to be developed into a national plan on climate change adaptation, which will integrate preparations for climate change in the strategic planning systems of the various economic, social and environmental sectors.
Accordingly, and following a government decision on the preparation of a climate change plan for Israel on both mitigation and adaptation measures, working groups on adaptation have been appointed. These groups are charged with bridging the gaps in existing knowledge on the impacts of climate change in Israel based on different scenarios, surveying available means for minimizing damage and vulnerability and identifying Israeli technologies for dealing with climate change that may assist other countries as well. Although the challenges are formidable, Israel has amassed wide experience in developing cuttingedge technologies and effective management systems in such fields as water management, recycling and reuse of treated wastewater, seawater desalination, desert agriculture and afforestation, which may assist neighboring and other countries. Therefore, Israel is looking at the feasibility of establishing an information and knowledge center for adaptation to global climate change.
As per the announcement of Israel's President in Copenhagen at COP 15 and Israel’s subsequent association with the Copenhagen Accord, Israel will strive for a 20% reduction of GHG emissions below BAU by 2020. The main actions for achieving this reduction target include 10% renewable energy for electricity generation by 2020 and 20% reduction of electricity consumption by 2020. In accordance with a March 2010 government decision to formulate a national action plan for the reduction of GHG emissions, an interministerial committee, headed by the director-general of the Ministry of Finance, was set up to specify the steps required for the implementation of such an action plan, including regulation, removal of barriers, cost benefit analysis, economic incentives and more, and to submit recommendations to the government by the end of 2010.
Four working teams are now focusing on the most promising areas of emission reduction potential in Israel:
• Energy efficiency
• Renewable energy
• Green building
The process is being facilitated by a team from the S. Neaman Institute, Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, which is assisting the working groups to determine the policy tools that should be implemented to attain Israel’s emissions reduction target by:
• Addressing the main “policy umbrellas” which may allow goal achievement.
• Reviewing the main policy tools planned or implemented in various countries to reduce GHG emissions.
• Surveying the barriers to the implementation of GHG reduction measures in Israel.
• Developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) economic model to assess the cross-effects of the different policy tools.
1992. Kazakhstan signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
1995. The President of the Republic of Kazakhstan ratified the Convention.
1997. On the threshold of the Third Conference of the Parties to the UN FCCC in Kyoto the Ministry of Foreign Affaires of the Republic of Kazakhstan issued the statement that the country is ready to participate in discussions of actions for reducing and limiting the GHG emission levels based on the emission levels for 1990. In its statement Kazakhstan supported the World Bank Carbon Initiative on establishment of international carbon credits market.
1998. The Fourth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention. Kazakhstan declared its intent to undertake voluntary emission reduction commitments. The Initial National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan under the UNFCCC is published.
1999. In March Kazakhstan signed the Kyoto Protocol as a non-Party to Annex I of the UNFCCC and a non-Party to Annex В of the Kyoto Protocol. In April Kazakhstan stated its intent to accede Annex I to the UNFCCC. The working group on the problems of the Kyoto Protocol ratification worked from July till December.
2000. Kazakhstan continues works to accede to Annex I to the UNFCCC and ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Interagency Center on Climate Change, including on realization of mechanisms for greenhouse gas emission reduction, is established
Kazakhstan places strong emphasis on the climate change problem. As in any other country undergoing the process of transition to market economy, this problem is of highest priority since its solution has been associated with the national concept of environmental security and sustainable development.
With the financial and technical support of Annex II Parties to the UNFCCC (USA, the Netherlands, Japan) since 1993 Kazakhstan has researched climate change in the region, evaluated vulnerability of ecosystems and specific sectors of economy to possible climate change, developed some effective adaptation measures. It compiled national inventory of GHG emissions and removals for 1990 that will serve as a baseline level for future GHG emissions. One of the main outputs of activities under the UNFCCC shall be identification of measures to mitigate climate change impacts in different sectors of Kazakhstan's economy according to their priority value from the point of view of emissions reduction and GHG sinks development potential and in conformity with the principle of sustainable development (The Initial National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan under the UN FCCC, Almaty, 1998).
Evaluation of potential climate change impacts in Kazakhstan (by KazNIIMOSK):
- Cropping capacity of spring wheat will decrease by 44-51%; of winter wheat - by 12-35 %; at the beginning of the growing season yield capacity of pasture vegetation will increase but it will sharply decrease then;
- due to the 27-57 days increase of hot period, the wool clip in the sheep breeding will be reduced by 11-19 %; lamb litter will be decreased by 20-26 %;
- Water resources: the Tobol River flow will reduce by 24-26 %, and the Ulba and Uba rivers flow- by 23-29 %;
- In the mountain areas the snow line will rise by 500-700 meters; mudflow activity will increase;
Greenhouse gases 2007
According to the results of greenhouse gases inventory in Kazakhstan total gas emissions with direct greenhouse effect in 2007 without absorption of CO2 by forestry amounted 246.74 mln. t CO2-eq, including 189.71 mln. t of emission from total energy sector, 18.52 mln. t from industrial processes, 14.35 mln. t from agriculture, and 4.6 mln. t from wastes. Absorption of CO2 by forestry and land usage sector in 2007 amounted 9.2 mln. t.
Thus, net-emissions, taking into account CO2 absorption by LULUCF, were valued at 237.54 mln. t CO2-eq. Total emissions of CO2 in 2007 make up 208.23 mln. t without CO2 absorption by forestry, and taking into account – 199.03 mln. t.
Dynamic of joint anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions by IPCC sectors (in CO2-eq) is shown on Figure 1 and Table 1. From 1990 up to 2000 in the Republic of Kazakhstan reduction of GHG emissions took place in all sectors because of total economic situation in the country. In 2000 total national emissions were for 49% below 1990 year level and for 51% below 1992 year level. Despite the present growth of GHG emissions, total greenhouse gases emissions in 2007 remain significantly below 1990 year level. Distribution of emissions by sectors changed insignificantly during period 1990-2007. in accordance to a share in total emissions energy sector emissions prevail – in 1992 and 2007 their share came to 80% and 79.4% correspondingly. Detailed analysis of dynamic of GHG emissions by sectors is given in corresponding chapters of the report. It is necessary to point out that data about emissions and absorption, included in this cadastre, slightly differs from data in the First National Communication of Republic of Kazakhstan at UNFCCC (FNC), presented in 1998, because of improvements made in estimations since the development of FNC. According to the demands of UNFCCC guiding documents improvements of the cadastre will be continued in future.
The share of each source to the total national emissions is presented on the Figure 2. it is obvious that during whole period main source of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan is energy activity, share of which almost didn’t change in time and in 2007 makes up 82.6%. Industrial processes are on the second place of share, which contribution slightly increased from 5.5% in 1990 to 5% in 2007, and share of emissions from the “Wastes” category during the concerned period has been in the limits of 1.4-1.6% correspondingly.
Emissions of CO2 main greenhouse gas in Kazakhstan formed in as a result of activity connected to fuel combustion and as a result of some technological processes at the industrial sector without fuel combustion. Significant that contribution of energy activity during whole period prevails over CO2 share from industrial processes and makes up 91-97% of total CO2 emissions. In Kazakhstan total specific GHG emissions in 2007 amounted about 15.8 t per capita, of which CO2 accounts for 13.37 t.
In 2006 in Nairobi (Kenya) at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties in the list of other issues issue of Kazakhstan’s base year for subsequent greenhouse gases inventories was discussed by the request of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has informed the Parties that it would like to have as a base year 1992 – the first year of independence, when statistical data is more precise, in our opinion. That is why in the given report we make comparisons with 1992. In 2007 GHG emissions without stock made up 72.4% of the 1992 year level.
Kazakhstans Priorities in Climate Change Process
Depending on the importance of global climate change consequences and on the world priorities of the problem, Kazakhstan thinks it necessary to continue the process of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol and obtaining the status of Annex 1 country, that will serve as a legal basis for participation in all the mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol and attraction of external funds and new technologies.
At present Kazakhstan plans to continue works in the direction, with support of the world community, all the more, Kazakhstan does not rely only on external support, but also carries out serious researches. The country studied and continues studying vulnerability of economy and natural resources to climate change, and assessing possible activities to adopt to expected climate changes.
Priority activities for the nearest future:
Willingness of the Republic of Kazakhstan to enter into voluntary obligations will facilitate achieving the Convention's ultimate goal and obtaining global environmental benefits. Kazakhstan strives to make its considerable contribution in the efforts of the world community to realize policy, aimed at stabilization of greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere. However wish of the republic of Kazakhstan to enter Annex 1 is dictated not by populism and not only by the mere wish to address the challenge of climate change together with the world community. There are some evident benefits for the country, provided that the Kyoto mechanisms work successfully and interests of all countries are considered. Thus development of adequate mechanisms for management of GHG emission processes is a priority activity for the world community.
Introduction of energy-efficient technologies will help to reduce energy component of production costs and will increase competitiveness of the products at domestic and external markets. It will increase investment attractiveness of companies that are due to their activity GHG emission sources, especially for large transnational energy companies committed to reduce emissions. Realization of projects in Kazakhstan as in a country with transitional economy will allow to off-set GHG emissions cheaper than in developed countries, and in the framework of Joint Implementation (JI) projects it will create opportunities to attract additional financial resources from international funds and soft credits. Kazakhstan will obtain a new status: it will become a participant of GHG emissions trade, as later requirements for acceding Annex 1 can become stricter. We will be able to start a process of negotiations on selection of partners for joint implementation of projects and trade in emission quotas. Political benefits of these measures are obvious, as Kazakhstan is in the focus of attention from the both groups of the Convention's Parties: developing countries and countries included in Annex 1. It creates basis for further promotion of the Kyoto Protocol ratification and joining Annex В. The process of obtaining grant assistance for further evaluation of consequences of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol will move from the dead point. Donors will provide funds for further GHG inventory, technical assistance for development of projects and project Feasibility Studies for joint implementation, etc.
For full-fledged participation of Kazakhstan in the active GHG emission reduction process it is necessary to make a complex of procedural arrangements. After implementation of all these procedures, including entering into quantitative GHG reduction obligations for the period of realizing the mechanism (2008-2012), Kazakhstan expects to become a full participant of the three Kyoto mechanisms. The Republic of Kazakhstan relies on certain assistance and support for realization of its initiatives from the world community and hopes to implement the planned activities successfully. At the same time, Kazakhstan shares apprehensions of developing countries that participation in the Kyoto mechanisms will negatively influence economic development of developing countries. In order to prevent this, all countries of the world can and must make the Kyoto mechanisms acceptable both for developing countries and countries with transitional economy and developed countries. It can become an unprecedented case when all countries of the world community combine their efforts in the face of the mutual global problem.
The principle requirement for drawing up national GHG inventories is to apply the calculation methodology approved and adopted by the Conference of the Parties that will ensure international comparability and ability to correlate the inventories' outcomes. The methodological basis for calculating GHG emissions and removals were the IPCC Guidelines revised in 1996. In conformity with the Guidelines, Kazakhstan's Inventory consists of the five key categories: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land-use change and forestry, wastes utilization. In the national GHG cadastre the data are presented on emissions of the following gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, nitrogen oxides and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC).
For the inventory of 1994 the data were obtained form the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, from the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture. Because of the quick change of institutional and economic conditions of transitional period, difficulties in data collection, the structures of data for 1990 and 1994 do not completely coincide.
According to the inventory, the GHG net-emissions in Kazakhstan in 1990 amounted to more than 350 million tons of СО2-equivalent, and in 1994 - more than 230 million tons. In this way, total GHG emissions in Kazakhstan decreased by more than 34 %. The largest GHG emitter in Kazakhstan is energy activities, in 1990 it accounted to 291 million tons of СО2-equivalent, and in 1994 - to 195 million tons or 81.4 % and 81.1 % of total emissions correspondingly. In the category “Energy ” about 90 % refers to emissions from fuel combustion and about 10 % - to fugitive emissions related to extraction, transportation and processing of fuel.
The GHG inventory, presented in the Initial National Communication (Initial National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 1998), identifies that emissions from energy are equal to 226 million tons of СО2. According to the results of the revised inventory it became about 266 million tons. The Initial National Communication also has data on СО2 emissions from industrial processes that amounts to 4 million tons. After some further revisions this value was 20 million tons. The main causes of this discrepancy are as follows. After the levels of CO2 emissions for the 90th were compared, it was found out that data for 1990 were not complete. Economic recession in the country began in 1990, and according to the experts' estimations, emissions in 1990 could not be lower than in 1991 or in 1992. Thus missing data on 1990 were completed with the data on 1991 and 1992. It increases emissions of 1990 in the category “fuel combustion ”
The current state of Kazakhstan's electroenergy is characterized by the following features:
- High concentration of energy-producing facilities;
- Location of large energy plants mostly near fuel-extraction sites;
- Big share of cogeneration (parallel production of electricity and heat for production purposes and communal needs);
- Developed scheme of electricity transmission lines, where high voltage lines (500 and 1,150 kilowatts) serve as system-forming net;
- System of relay-type defense and anti-damage automated mechanisms, assuring stability of the Power grid in emergency and post-emergency situations;
- United vertical system of operational control management, realized by the Central dispatcher's point, regional dispatcher's centers, dispatcher centers of electrical energy consumers.
The technological basis for electrical energy of the country is the Power grid, which is the best form of energy production, transfer and distribution independent of the form of property in the energy sector and methods for generating wholesale and regional energy markets. The power grid of Kazakhstan is a highly automated complex of power plants and electricity networks with a unified operational regime, united centralized system of operational dispatcher's and anti-damage control, united system of development planning, technical policy, information channels, normative technological and legal regulation. The installed electrical capacity of power plants in Kazakhstan is about 18 gigowatts (heat power plants - 87.5 %, hydro stations - 12.4 %). Kazakhstan has a developed infrastructure of heat supply. The installed capacity of heat power plants is more than 6,700 Mwatts (38 % of the capacity of all power plants of the country). They cover about 40 % of heat consumption and about 46 % of electricity consumption in Kazakhstan.
Objectives and main priorities of energy sector development are identified in the “Program of energy development till 2030 ”. They include the following:
- To achieve self-sufficiency of economy and population with electrical energy and consequently to obtain energy independence as a part of the national security;
- To create export competitive resources of electricity with their possible sale at energy markets of the bordering and third countries;
- To develop competitive market of electrical energy based on the electricity transportation and distribution network open for producers and on the dispatcher's system for control of electricity flow.
The main strategic directions:
- Creation of the united power grid in Kazakhstan;
- Reactivation of parallel work with the united power grid of Russia and grids of Central Asian countries;
- Further development of open competitive market of electricity;
- Maximal use of existing energy sources, their reconstruction and modernization; - Introduction of new facilities only if they are replacing import;
- Improvement of the energy generation structure through development of renewable energy;
- Reconstruction and modernization of the existing heat-supply systems using cogeneration as an effective energy-saving technology, helping to reduce consumption of organic fuel and reduce greenhouse gases;
- Introduction of modern autonomous high-quality heat sources wherever it is economically and ecologically more beneficial than cogeneration and centralized heat-supply from boilers.
The situation in Kazakhstan's economy is so, that energy-use is decreasing, but it is obvious that the economy and level of energy-use will be stabilized and the opportunity will appear to move step-by-step to the new quality of life including:
- High-scale increase in the range, quality of material welfares and services, volumes of their use;
- Moderate or accelerated speed of economic growth;
- Significant improvement of ecological situation in the country.
The key objective in the new circumstances is to provide maximal involvement in the process of improving welfare of population and life quality. The second objective of electrification is to increase production efficiency and increase resources to address social goals.
Today forecasts of electricity consumption are very uncertain. In this respect possible electricity consumption in the “Program of energy development till 2030” is assessed in the form of “uncertainty zone”, which size is extended with extension of the advance period.
Dynamics of the process will be determined by the factor of demand for electrical energy and programs on technical re-equipment of energy facilities according to the ecological norms used in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Developing technological norms for new boilers and/or for modernization of existing heat power plants, it is necessary to use the world experience of technical norm-setting, achieved level of technical development, specific environmental features of Kazakhstan, state and perspectives of economy formation. In addition norms must be beneficial for investment climate of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
One of the priority directions of developing energy and addressing environmental problems of Kazakhstan is use of renewable energy sources. The potential of renewable energy resources (hydropower, solar and wind) in Kazakhstan is rather significant. The potential of hydropower is estimated at about 170 billion kilowatt-hours per year, 62 billion kilowatt-hours can be used from the technical point of view, 27 billion kilowatt-hours can be used form financial point of view, and only about 8 billion kilowatt-hours are used now.
Kazakhstan possesses enormous potential of wind energy, especially in the “Djungar gates” and “Sheleksky Corridor ” in Almaty oblast. Proximity of existing energy-transmission lines, good correlation of wind season with energy demand, as well as the local market of energy demand, make the question of developing these untraditional energy resources in the Djungar Gates and Sheleksky Corridor real. It should be noted that almost the whole territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan is good for installation of wind-power stations.
In spite of the northern latitude of Kazakhstan, resources of solar energy in the country are stable and can be used because of the favorable climatic conditions. The number of sunny days is 2,200-3,000 hours per year, and the energy of solar radiation is 1,300-1,800 kilowatts per a square meter per year, that makes it possible to use panels of solar batteries in rural areas, and portable systems of photoelectrio sources.
Analyses of geothermal and biological resources of the country show that their quality and potential of energy generation are not enough high. It seems most rational to use geothermal energy for heating buildings, and biological resources – for generation of biogas with its further use for heating and cooking, as well as for production of manure.
The priority directions of GHG emission reduction in Kazakhstan in the sector of energy production include:
- Reconstruction and modernization of power stations using modern energy technologies;
- Increasing share of gas in the energy-balance;
- Introduction of renewable non-fuel energy sources in the energy-balance.
- One of the main strategic directions of developing energy sector till 2015 will be maximal use of existing energy sources, their reconstruction and modernization with introduction of new facilities only if they are replacing import.
- Thereby, during the considered period the main task of the energy sector will be to change obsolete equipment of existing heat power plants for equipment of new generation. And introduction of the newest technologies, new high-efficient basic and subsidiary equipment will have a significant economical and environmental impact.
The most important direction of the Strategy will be reconstruction and modernization of the existing heat-supply systems using cogeneration as an effective energy-saving technology, helping to reduce consumption of organic fuel and reduce greenhouse gases.
Microeconomic analysis of the main sectors of Kazakhstan's real economy shows that the system crisis in the Republic is deepening. That's why the main objective of the governmental program (to stop recession of production and to start reanimation of economy) has not been achieved.
Economical policy should be directed to solving the most urgent problem that poses the largest threat to the country. Today for Kazakhstan this problem is not a high level of inflation or excessive budget deficit, that are within acceptable limits. The most dangerous is the problem of non-payments and related quickly growing internal and external debt of the republic.
In this regard selection of course in economic policy and implementation of effective real economy support policy, especially in the middle-term perspective, creating preconditions for realization of goals identified in the strategy “Kazakhstan-2030”, becomes critically significant.
Kosovo is very small country with a predominantly continental climate. It has warm summers and cold winters with Mediterranean and Alpine influences. There are uneven elevations and these bring about regional differences in temperatures and rainfall distribution. Climate change will likely increase already existing variations in the region. It is projected that Kosovo will have increasingly warmer temperatures and a higher irregularity in precipitation. In fact, Kosovo may already have experienced changing weather patterns, with floods in 2006 and droughts in 2007 and 2008, according to the Kosovo government’s water policy advisor, Baton Begolli. Other changes anticipated include increased water stress and damage to Kosovo’s biodiversity and ecosystems. There is a risk that, as Kosovo and its neighbours suffer these effects, there could be a rise in regional tensions, as has been seen in the conflicts over water control in other parts of the world.
Climate change could make Kosovo’s development difficult or even impossible to sustain. It is expected that a warmer climate will reduce the availability of basic necessities such as water for human use and irrigation, food security, and energy. The links between climate change and sustainable development are strong, especially for poor and developing countries.
Climate change will not only bring about a warmer world, but also set the stage for an unhealthier one. With a changing, and ultimately warmer, climate, populations around the world will become more vulnerable to heat‐related mortality, air pollution‐related illnesses, infectious diseases and malnutrition. Kosovo will therefore be at risk of climaterelated health crises, from heat waves and famine, to floods and water‐borne diseases.
Kosovo, though relatively small in both size and population, is a contributor to the processes of climate change. Perhaps for its size, it has a high per capita contribution. There are three major areas where it is contributing to the attack on the earth’s climate.
Kosovo is both blessed and cursed by having 14.7 million tons of lignite – the world’s 5th largest proven reserves – as its main engine of development. Using this resource to generate energy will boost its economic development and benefit the rest of the region through the export of surplus electricity. On the other hand, it will massively increase Kosovo’s GHG emissions rate. Currently, Kosovo sources most (98 %) of its energy from two lignite burning power plants (Kosovo A and Kosovo B). According to the Strategic Environmental Assessment funded by the World Bank, Kosovo A and Kosovo B emitted 5.8 million tons of CO2 in 2005. In 2006, the Kosovo Energy Corporation’s Environmental Department reported that Kosovo B emits more CO2 (3.6 million tonnes) than Kosovo A (1.5 million tonnes).
Today, these two power plants are in desperate need of replacement or modernisation due to their ageing and inefficient technology. They are heavy polluters, emitting ash and GHGs in large amounts, and unable to provide sufficient electricity to meet Kosovo’s energy needs. At this time, Kosovo A is slated for eventual decommission, and the government is in the process of finalising plans for the development of a new power plant with a capacity of 2,100MW in the hope of both meeting domestic energy demands and enabling the young country to become an energy exporter in the Balkans and beyond. Certainly, both the construction of the new plant and the planned exports will be major boosts toKosovo’s economy.
The first unit of Kosovo C is scheduled to begin operation in 2014 with one or two new units to be installed at 18 month intervals thereafter. Initial installed capacity will be between 900 and 1,000MW. According to World Bank calculations6, if Kosovo A isdecommissioned and Kosovo C reaches full capacity alongside Kosovo B, far greater quantities – around 22.5 million tons – of CO2 and other GHGs will be emitted. Kosovo is expected to use lignite as its main source of energy continue for at least the next 40 years.
The majority of vehicles in Kosovo are old models that emit large quantities of GHGs through their exhaust systems. Newer cars and trucks include technology to reduce such emissions. Global estimates account 10% of all GHGs to vehicles. Unofficial estimates by the Kosovo Environment Protection Agency suggest that approximately 5.5 million tons of CO2 is emitted by Kosovo’s vehicles each year. While the Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications (MTT) and the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning should be responsible for obtaining data on emissionsby Kosovo’s approximately 220,000 registered vehicles, a representative from the MTT
stated that this is not conducted. In addition, in 2002, about 30,000 tons of diesel and 25,000 tons of petrol were imported without any quality control check.
Around 40% of Kosovo’s 10,904km2 territory is forested. However, since the end of the war, and probably before, considerable deforestation has occurred as a result of logging – much of it illegal or unmonitored – for firewood and construction. According to Kosovo’s Forestry Department, around 222,000m3 of wood is exploited annually. Kosovo’s forests need to be seen as an asset to be protected. They are important for their key role in absorbing CO2. Reducing forest cover results in greater atmospheric CO2 levels which in turn result in higher temperatures. As well as deliberate deforestation, Kosovo loses an average of 40km2 to forest fires every year. If temperatures rise significantly, the frequency and severity of such fires will increase.
It can be argued that the government of Kosovo is constitutionally obliged to combat climate change as part of its requirement to protect the country’s children, as expressed in points 1 and 4 of Article 50. Climate change will inevitably impact the “…protection and care necessary for…” the “wellbeing” of the children of Kosovo, and the government must ensure that “all actions…” that will be undertaken “…by public or private authorities concerning children shall be in the best interest of the children”. This places responsibility squarely on the government to deal will climate change as this will be in best interest of Kosovo’s children and future generations. Article 52, particularly point 3, calls on public institutions to consider the environment in decision making
processes. Since climate change concerns the environment, action needs to be taken to deal with it.
Dealing with climate change
Some might feel that Kosovo is under no obligation or requirement at the moment to act on climate change. Kosovo did not participate in or sign the Kyoto Protocol. Neither is it obliged to adhere to the EU´s 2020 Energy and Climate targets (see page 5). Whilst this is technically and legally correct, regardless of its non‐membership in the UN and the uncertainty over its future with the EU, Kosovo’s state has a moral responsibility to its people and to the rest of the world to engage with the problem.For Kosovo’s leaders, economic priorities have outweighed environmental concerns until now, and climate change has hitherto received little attention from the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning (MESP), and political and civic leaders generally. This fact is confirmed when one looks at the funds set aside for environmental issues, which is only 0.1% of Kosovo’s total budget.10 In 2009, this equates to around €13 million, and only a small proportion of this will go towards direct anti‐climate change initiatives. Whilst its neighbours are barely out of the starting blocks on combating climate change Kosovo is still very clearly at the back of the pack. All the Balkan states except Kosovo have ratified the Kyoto Protocol but beyond that have only taken tentative steps. As Kosovo is not a member of the UNFCCC, it probably cannot legally ratifywhatever agreement emerges from Copenhagen, although this is a legal avenue worth exploring. Kosovo is, however, a signatory to the Energy Community Treaty which commits it to “endeavour” to establish targets and frameworks for significant long‐term reductions of GHGs, in keeping with the goal of the Kyoto Convention. Also, Kosovo, alongwith its neighbours, does have environmental legislation which at least mentions climate change.
The Assembly of Kosovo has passed about 40 laws that are relevant in some way to fighting climate change, many of which adhere to international standards, although they are mostly unimplemented.
• The Law on the Protection of the Environment includes a number of legalinstruments ensuring its implementation of the law in Kosovo and ensure the effective promotion of the healthy environment.
• The Law on Protection of the Air provides a legal basis for the regulation of air quality, and defines relevant rights and duties, in line with EU and World Health Organization standards.
• The Law on Sewage lays out rules on the sustainable development and use of Kosovo’s water resources. It also promotes the protection of the water resources from the pollution, exploitation and maltreatment.
• The Law on the Administration of Waste creates a legal basis for dealing with waste, with the aim of protecting public health and preventing accumulation.
• The Law on the Protection of Nature defines the principles for the protection of nature and regulates its sustainable use, as well as promoting the revitalisation of damaged natural areas and compensating for damage suffered.
Despite this comprehensive legal foundation on the environment, it lacks any specific legislation or policy on climate change. As such, only minimal steps have been made to conform with EU and UNFCCC standards. MESP has suggested that a strategy will be developed in early 2010, although what form this will take is, at present, unclear.
What is being done?
There is neither a strategy for reducing GHG emissions, nor one for dealing with climate change generally. In fact, Kosovo has a very limited national GHG inventory, and it remains unclear which year Kosovo will choose as its base year to measure and compare emissions, given the lack of information. A National Focal Point for Climate Change, which is necessary for coordination of climate change issues, has not been established. Further, no national quota or cap for GHG or CO2 emissions has been determined, and there have not been any assessments of vulnerability and potential mitigation strategies. Some progress has been made regarding the development of Kosovo’s new power plant. A strategic environmental and social impact assessment has been conducted by MESP, funded by the World Bank. Since this plant will be a major future source of GHGs, this is an important step. However, overall little research has been conducted, no efforts have been made to educate the public about climate change, and the country’s institutional capacity is limited.
In the beginning of 2009, a Climate Change Office was established in MESP. The Office was hoped to produce a GHG inventory for Kosovo, prepare effective legislation, andcommunicate with the UNFCCC. There are no specific details on the Office’s budget available, and it is only that its funds will come from MESP’s budget. However, due to the low salary assigned to the post, the first incumbent resigned, and no replacement has yet been found.
Preparation has begun on a comprehensive air quality assessment, as well as the drafting, adoption, and implementation of regulations on emissions from stationary and mobile sources. One environmental air quality monitoring post is being constructed, and threemore are planned.
With regards to renewable resource development, Kosovo is currently renovating around hydropower plants for alternative energy generation. Some solar power projects havebeen built for heating water, but not yet electricity generation. Solar power is viewed as a good long‐term solution to counteract the depletion of fossil fuels. However, the technology and production methods required to develop solar electricity are not sophisticated and cheap enough to be competitive in the market, or feasible for Kosovo’s limited means.
In 2009, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development initiated a plan to plant two million trees. Forests, however, require management and this has been overlooked by the ministry, which seems poorly informed about the magnitude of illegal logging and lacks any means by which to counter it.
Kosovo held its first conference and workshop on the issue of climate change in April 2009 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Program and the MESP. This provided an opportunity to raise awareness of the issue. At the conference, the minister of Environment and Spatial Planning spoke of the important role Kosovo needs to playdespite being a small country. At the workshop, Mrs. Stoycheva, a consultant at UNDP Kosovo, pointed out the necessity of action. Her suggestions included conductingassessments of Kosovo’s vulnerability to, and possible avenues to mitigate, climate change; developing a climate change strategy; and the implementation of concrete mitigation and adaptation projects, considering capacity development, stakeholder involvement, public awareness, and the mobilisation of financial resources.
Also, in August 2009, some members of MESP and the Ministry of Energy and Mines were invited to attend a seminar on climate change in Bonn, Germany, as observers. While the legal foundations for dealing with the environment, although not specifically climate change, are now in place, the implementation of these laws and regulations is poor. This can be attributed to the lack of financial, human and institutional resources; inadequate environmental data; limited awareness of climate change; weak interministerial co‐ordination and, perhaps most importantly, a lack of political will due to the prioritisation of other issues demanding attention and funds.
Given the above, it is clear that Kosovo has not yet seriously engaged with the issue of climate change, despite the seriousness of the problem. It is in Kosovo's direct interests to shift into high gear, and the following chapter outlines a possible approach involving a number of actions which together would constitute a strategy for Kosovo to step up and play a serious role in combating climate change.
Why does kosovo need a strategy?
As stated earlier, global warming is inevitable, but its severity can still be limited, and methods of doing so are widely acknowledged. Kosovo’s problems are apparent, and so too are the solutions. In order to achieve change, Kosovo needs to produce a long‐term strategy, identifying the steps necessary to arrest climate change as far as possible. Of course, this must take the country’s current financial, institutional and legal constraints, including the priority of settling the political contest with Serbia over independence, into account.
A number of methods for states and industries to reduce GHG emissions have been developed by the UNFCCC, most notably carbon emissions trading, clean development mechanisms and joint implementation provisions. However,it is unclear whether Kosovo can gain direct access to any of these programmes at this time, as it is a member of neither the UN nor the UNFCCC. In the interim, Kosovo may need to seek assistance from donors, particularly the EU and the World Bank. As explained earlier, Kosovo must deal with three specific climate change issues:
1. Emissions from current and planned lignite power plants
2. Emissions from motor vehicles
In dealing with the above, mitigation strategies can be put in place.
Reducing power plant emissions
Kosovo’s existing and planned power plants represent the country’s largest and most obvious contribution to climate change. Yet electricity generation is also its most significant economic opportunity in at least the short‐term. Whilst fossil fuels will always emit some GHGs, so‐called ‘clean coal technologies’ have been developed which enable significant reductions in emissions. Modern technology also allows much more efficient coal combustion, which reduces emissions per unit of electricity. One of the most promising developments for reducing CO2 emissions from coal and lignite power plants is ‘carbon capture and storage’ methods, also known as carbon sequestration. This involves trapping CO2 as it is released, compressing it, and transporting it to a suitable storage site where it is injected into the ground. According to the Strategic Environmental and Social Impact Report by MESP, this technology, which is not yet commercially available for large combustion plants, has the potential of reducing carbon emissions by 80%. Currently, the tender documents for the new power plant (Kosovo C) are not publiclyavailable. It is therefore not yet clear what will be done to limit CO2 emissions from the new and old power plants, although the latest technologies will reportedly be included.
Alternative energy resources
Although they would not be able to replace the lignite power plants, Kosovo does have the potential to make use of renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydroelectricity. Laying out plans on how various alternative energy systems could be developed and expanded in the coming years would represent a significant step. Similar to programmes in other parts of the world, government investment and inducements such as tax breaks could encourage the private sector to develop these systems, profiting Kosovo’s economy and environment.
Reduction of ghg and co2 from motor vehicles
Vehicles in Kosovo can be made less polluting. This would need to be done in a systematic way within a timeframe allowing for Kosovo’s economy and society to adjust. An effective first step would be to begin monitoring vehicular CO2 emissions. This has been successfully implemented in many other countries, including most of the EU, through annual inspections. People could be encouraged to drive less polluting vehicles through a gradated tax regime, which would incentivise vehicles with better emission reducing technology.
The solution to Kosovo’s deforestation problem could be quite simple. Instead of new technology, what is required is political to develop an effective system of forestry management, enforce existing policies for forest protection, and begin a replenishment programme. As part of the latter, the recent government initiative to plant two million trees needs to be pursued and followed up with a systematic replanting program each year. Further, Kosovo’s climate change strategy could also include reductions in the use of firewood for heating and cooking, initially in urban areas. However, such a shift depends on the existence and availability of reliable alternative sources of energy.
While mitigation reduces the likelihood of adverse conditions developing, adaptation involves preparing for those adverse conditions that arise. As some level of globalwarming is inevitable, all societies will need to be ready to cope with an uncertain future. As described on page 8, Kosovo has already experienced extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves, floods and forest fires, and this are only likely to increase in frequency and severity. To deal with this, Kosovo will need strategies and measures to adapt. Delaying at this time will only necessitate more painful adaptations later, when the problem is even more urgent. The following areas are some possible components of an effective adaptation strategy:
• Information flow: In order to make informed and effective decisions aboutadaptive strategies, Kosovo’s individuals, businesses, communities and governments need accurate projections of climate change and its environmental and socioeconomic impact.
• Flexibility: Effective adaptation requires flexibility to respond to new information and changing circumstances. Risk management and monitoring allow for flexibility through regular reviews of adopted strategies and developing risks.
• Anticipatory planning: Most analysts agree that delayed action will be more costly than anticipatory action. For instance, investment in climate‐proofing newinfrastructure and housing developments in Kosovo, for example, would be much cheaper than retrofitting or rebuilding later.
• Mainstreaming: Mainstreaming is the integration of climate change issues and responses into agriculture, forestry, water, energy, economic, social, health and environmental sectors. Many climate change adaptations synergise with other developments. For example, protecting against the risks of climate variability can often strengthen resilience against long‐term climate change.
• Concrete measures: Examples of adaptive measures include land managementand development policies; early warning systems for heat waves and heavy rains; climate‐proofing buildings and infrastructure and drought‐proofing measures to improve water security.
Addressing institutional constraints
Evident in almost every aspect of any effort to tackle climate change will be the constraints of Kosovo’s limited human and financial resources. Any approach will require investment to strengthen institutions through procuring equipment, training staff and hiring experts. The current weakness of government institutions and the country’s economy means that, in the short‐term, Kosovo will be mostly reliant on donor organisations for the necessary financial and human resources.
Responding to the eu and UNFCC
There are a number of actions Kosovo can take as part of a strategic approach to bring it in line with the EU and the UNFCCC. Indeed, Kosovo has already started efforts to make its legal and regulatory regime compatible with the EU, and should therefore strive to achieve the EU´s 2020 energy and climate goals of cutting GHG emissions and energy consumption by 20% and increase renewable energy use by 20% by 2020. With respect to the global efforts to tackle climate change, Kosovo should attempt to keep pace with UNFCCC members until Kosovo is able to join the UN and the UNFCCC. In the meantime, it can carry out most actions as if it were a part of the UNFCCC process, which include:
• Establishing national and regional mitigation and adaptation programmes;
• Indentifying a base year from which GHG emissions will be measured;
• Producing a ‘National Communication’ report on progress made in implementing programmes agreed to by the UNFCCC;
• Integrating climate change policies into plans for Kosovo’s sustainable development;
• Promoting and cooperating in the transfer of environmentally‐friendly technologies;
• Promoting research, information exchange, education and capacity building;
• Creating a national inventory of GHGs;
• Producing climate change scenarios for social, economic and environmental sectors.
By implementing such plans, Kosovo could demonstrate its seriousness towards climate change, and will ensure that Kosovo is in line with the rest of the world. Again, this willrequire political will and a serious commitment of resources. Perhaps most importantly, however, if Kosovo acts on climate change, it will demonstrate to the rest of the world that it is a responsible actor among the world’s nations. Also, while Kosovo might be a small country in both size and population, it should display acceptance of the shared responsibility to engage with climate change, just as it could share the consequences of a global failure to do so.
GHG Inventory Report
The GHG inventory report submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat on 15 April 2009 contains information on Latvia’s direct (carbon dioxide (CO2); methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)) and indirect – nitric oxide (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO2), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), carbon oxide (CO) GHG emissions and also a summary on the estimated net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) for the time period 1990 – 2007 and also on the national GHG Inventory System and the National Emission Trading Registry (ETR).
The total GHG emission, excluding Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector in the time period from 1990-2007 had reduced by 55%. The main GHG emission in 2007 excluding LULUCF sector was CO2 (8 608 thousand tons), causing 71.5% from the total emission, accordingly CH4 amounted to 15%, N2O – 13%, and fluorinated gas – 0.5% from total emissions. The energy sector constitutes 73% from the total GHG emissions, agriculture - 17%, waste management – 6.9%, manufacturing – 2.6% and use of solvents and other products – 0.5%.
The main source of carbon dioxide CO2 emission in 2007 was burning of fossil fuels – 96.5% (including, energy sector – 23.6%; manufacturing industry and construction – 14.8%; transport sector – 45.1%; and other sectors – household, agriculture, forestry etc - 16.5%). Other CO2 emission sources were manufacturing – 2.9%, use of solvents and other products – 0.6% and waste management (burning) – 0.01%. The total CO2 removal exceeded the annual GHG emission – in 2007 the net CO2 removal from LULUCF sector was – 32018.9 Gg.
The second most important GHG is CH4 (both with/without LULUCF sector). In 2007 as compared to 1999 CH4 emission had gone down by around 49%. The main CH4 emission sources are solid household waste landfills, farm animal (gut) fermentation processes and natural gas pipeline system leakage.
In comparison to 1990 the total N2O emission (both with/without LULUCF sector) has reduced by circa 58%. The main source of N2O emissions was agricultural lands accounting for 88% (both with/without LULUCF) from N2O emissions of 2007. Less important N2O emission sources are transport, biomass burning, waste management (composting) and processing of wastewater.
In the time period from 1990 – 2000 the amount of indirect GHG emissions has reduced. The replacement of the main fuels has resulted in considerable reduction of SO2 emissions, because the currently prevailing types of fuel, such as natural gas and biomass practically contain no sulphur.
The energy sector was the main source of indirect GHG and SO2 in 2007 constituting accordingly 91.3% (NOx); 95.5% (CO); 57.3% (NMVOC); 92.6%(SO2) from the total emission of the respective gases. Transportation vehicles account for the highest NOx emission – 60% from the total NOx emissions, whereas the household sector created the largest CO emission (58.2%), and the energy sector - NMVOC (57.3%).
After publication of the „Fourth National Communication of the Republic of Latvia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” improvements have been introduced to the GHG inventory that has also affected emission time series.
The GHG inventories submitted to the Convention Secretariat and meeting the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol are based upon the national system for evaluation of GHG. Establishment of the national system was completed in 2009.
The annual inventory on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals is prepared by the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Agency (hereinafter – LEGMA) in cooperation with other institutions. The GHG Inventory is approved with the ministries of other sectors – including the Ministry of the Environment (MoE), in charge of approval of the GHG Inventory and filling thereof with the Convention Secretariat. The institutions involved in GHG Inventory have to comply with the quality control requirements set forth in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
The Emission Trading Registry (ETR) of the Republic of Latvia is maintained and developed by the LEGMC (before 01.08.2009. the state agency of the Latvian Environment Geology and Meteorology Agency). The ETR operates in accordance with the requirements of EU laws regulating GHG emission trading and ensures implementation of the obligations stipulated in the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, decisions (13/CMP.1 and 15/CMP.1).
Policies and Measures
Climate change mitigation policy has been among the priorities of Latvia of the recent years. The climate policy of Latvia is based upon the EU climate policy, the basic principles of which are set down in several political documents, i.e. „Climate Change Mitigation Program 2005 – 2010”, „Strategy for Use of Renewable Energy Sources for 2006-2010”, „The Climate and Energy Package”, „Environmental Policy Guidelines 2009-2015”.
In order Latvia would achieve the target of the Kyoto Protocol, it is necessary to implement the following climate change mitigation policy directions:
• Increase the share of renewable energy sources in the energy balance;
• Increase efficient and rational use of energy sources;
• Develop an environmentally friendly transport system;
• Promote implementation of the best available techniques, environmentally friendly technologies and cleaner production;
• Facilitate implementation of nature–conserving and direct GHG emission reducing agricultural practice;
• Increase CO2 removals in forestry;
• Establish a contemporary municipal waste management system, ensuring collection of biogas from municipal waste landfills;
• Participate in the EU emissions trading system and the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol;
• Promote implementation of the environmental management system.
The fifth national communication provides more detailed analyses of the measures to be implemented for enforcement of the climate policy:
• Support for energy generation in small hydropower plants;
• Support for wind power production;
• Support for energy production in biogas plants from agricultural waste and waste landfills;
• Support for energy production in cogeneration stations from renewable energy sources;
• Support for projects improving energy performance of buildings;
• Defining of the maximally allowed emission limits for different air polluting substances (emission „ceiling”);
• Large-scale burning plant emission control;
• Promotion of use of biofuel and other renewable energy sources in transport sector;
• CO2 emission limits for personal vehicles;
• Implementation of the Best Available Techniques (BAT) and cleaner production in manufacturing industry;
• Promotion of control of fluorinated greenhouse gases;
• Development of environmentally friendly agriculture and promotion of Good Agricultural Practice (GAP);
• Implementation of the Directive 91/676/EEC concerning the protection of waters against pollution caused by nitrates from agricultural sources;
• Sustainable use of agricultural resources;
• Increase of forest stand productivity;
• Afforestation of unmanaged agricultural land;
• Development of regional landfills according to the requirements of the Council Directive 1999/31/EC “On the landfill of waste”;
• Processing of biologically degradable waste;
• Restoration of small municipal dumpsites not meeting environmental requirements.
Latvia is implementing such cross-sectoral climate change mitigation policies and measures that affect several sectors of the national economy simultaneously. Such cross-sectoral policies include implementation of the EU greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme, participation in the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, control and reduction of polluting emissions.
For effective implementation of the Climate change mitigation policy and to reach the set GHG emission reduction targets Latvia applies a wide range of political (environmental impact assessment procedures, integrated permit regulations, prohibitions and standards) and economic (natural resources tax, excise tax for energy resources, users’ charges – tariffs) instruments. Increasing importance is paid to communication with general public – raising of public awareness and education on climate issues.
Latvia continues implementation of the policies and measures specified in the „Fourth National Communication of the Republic of Latvia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”.
The analyses given in the Report confirm that no additional measures or cooperation with other countries is necessary to achieve the GHG emission level set in the Kyoto Protocol.
Joint Impact of Projections, Policies and Measures and the Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol
The projections were made end 2007 when the country was facing only the first signs of economic stagnation and are based upon long term macroeconomic projection scenario. Latvia has made projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020 by taking 2005 as the base year and by taking into consideration the inventory information for the time period from 1990-2005. Emission projections include „scenario with measures”. By taking into consideration that the planned policy and measures ensure fulfilment of Latvia’s international GHG emission reduction obligations imposed by the Kyoto Protocol (the total GHG emission after 2008 would not exceed 92% from the emission amount of 1990) the scenario “with additional measures” was not elaborated.
According to the projections, the total average GHG emission value in the time period from 2008-2012 will not exceed 53% from the level of 1990.
The GHG emission will continue to increase also in 2010 and successive years - in 2015 and 2020 as compared to 2007 the emission amount will increase by 35.7% and 47.9% accordingly. Though, the projected emissions for 2010, 2015 and 2020 will be by 47.1%, 38% and 33% accordingly below the level of 1990, what is the Kyoto Protocol base year for the Republic of Latvia.
The projections have been made in accordance with the „Guidelines for Preparation of National Communications for Annex I Parties to the Convention”, Guidelines for National Greenhouse gas Inventories elaborated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and by making use of the following models:
• The optimization model MARKAL was used for GHG projections in the energy sector describing and modelling power sector and environmental system of Latvia.
• A complex of modules consisting of two separate models is used for fuel consumption and emission forecasts in the transport sector. The dynamic model was applied for projection of the motor vehicle cluster data, where the obtained results are further used for fuel consumption and emission forecasts on the basis of the COPERT III model which is commonly used by the EU countries;
• The combined method of time series and macroeconomic indicators is used for emission projections in the industrial sector. For the purpose of the combined approach the assumption is made that each narrow sector of the national economy will develop according to the projected development rate of the respective branch of the national economy;
• The emission projections in the agricultural sector are based upon long term macroeconomic projections and trends with regard the projected production amount in each of the sub-branches of the national economy;
• The first order decay method is used for calculation of emission projections for solid waste depositing.
According to the projections made Latvia will be able to fulfil the GHG emission reduction obligations laid down in the Kyoto Protocol, provided the climate change mitigation policy as outlined in paragraph 4 of this communication will be duly implemented.
Climate Change Impact, Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures
The prevailing air temperatures in the area of Latvia are determined by the received solar radiance, atmospheric circulation and the impact of the Baltic Sea, Riga Sea Gulf and the terrain. Essential is also the city environment impact. Within the last 50 years the air temperature and the total annual precipitation is inclined towards increase, what is proven by observations made by all main meteorological observation stations in Latvia. The average air temperature in Latvia over the last hundred of years has increased by 0.5ºC and around 1ºC – in Riga.
Climate changes affect the hydrological regime of over ground and subterranean waters. The increasing amount of precipitation accounts for increased river runoff, whereas the growing temperatures, on its turn, affect evaporation processes and therewith also facilitate decrease in river runoff and reduction in the water level in lakes. The minimum river flow in Latvia has increased, whereas the maximum – decreased. Overgrowing of rivers is a crucial issue.
Observations pertaining to the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Riga evidence that freeze-up time and ice distribution are reducing. The saltiness of the water in the Baltic Sea and in the Gulf of Riga has reduced within the last 30 years, whereas the intensified costal erosion facilitated also by the technical reconstruction of the port aquatorium adversely affects the costal biotopes. Within the last 70 years storms have washed away 50 – 200 m from the costal zone thereby making the area of the Republic of Latvia by 1000 ha smaller. It is anticipated that the growing frequency and strength of storms and lack of ice will cause more explicit costal erosion in the future.
The projections pertaining to the eventual air temperature changes in Latvia evidence that the average annual temperature will increase by around 2.6°C - 4°C, whereas the annual amount of precipitation could increase by 4-11%. The runoff of rivers in winter will considerably increase and high water will be observed in spring much earlier. Within the successive 15 years Latvia will lose around 310 ha (20 ha per year in average) from the costal dune protection belt forests, the grey dune and meadows, built up residential areas, roads along the coast and other infrastructure objects. The erosion will affect more than 258 km or 51.5% from the total length of the costal line.
The institutions involved in the scientific research of issues pertaining to climate changes and environmental impact in Latvia are the University of Latvia, Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Institute of Biology, Latvian State Forestry Research Institute „Silava” and other researcher centres. The adaptation policy has been developed in close cooperation with scientists acting within the framework of the national research program „Climate Change Impact on Water Environment in Latvia”.
What concerns elaboration of the adaptation policy on international level, Latvia has taken part in the expert working groups of the European Commission and EU Presidency likewise in the
European Environment Agency Member State expert working group on climate change impact, threats and adaptation. Latvia has elaborated and submitted to the Convention Secretariat information concerning Nairobi work program on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation and has elaborated a procedure for participation in the work of the European Space Agency to, inter alia, promote cooperation in research of climate system and prevention of natural disasters.
The Kyoto target for Latvia for the period 2008-2012 is -8 % compared to base year levels. In 2006, the country’s greenhouse gas emissions were already 55% lower than the base year emissions. Latvia is well on the way towards fulfilling this commitment as the most recent projections for 2010 show. In December 2008 Latvia agreed not to increase its greenhouse gas emissions in non-ETS sectors (e.g. buildings, road transport and farming) by more than 17% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Furthermore, Latvia has committed to achieving by 2020 a share of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption of 40% (up from 33% in 2005).
Climate change resulting from strong economic performance poses a threat not only to global ecosystems but also to a country’s economy and social environment. Under the Kyoto Protocol Lithuania has an obligation to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 8 % against 1990 levels during the period 2008-2012.
The key drivers and pressures
Lithuania’s growing economy and energy demand are contributing to a gradual increase in GHG emissions. Between 2001 and 2007, these emissions grew by 22 %. In 2007, GHG emissions amounted to 25.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2 eq.), 6 million tonnes of which were CO2 eq. in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and 19.5 million tonnes were CO2 eq. in the non-EU ETS. As indicated by GHG inventory data under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in 2007 GHG emissions in Lithuania were down 53 % on the 1990 level. Yet during this period, GDP increased by 101 % at 2001 prices.
Between 1990 and 2000, a decline in industrial production in Lithuania led to a significant decrease in fuel consumption and, as a result, a reduction in GHG emissions (by 60% during 1990–1999). An assessment of agricultural GHG has indicated that only direct soil GHG emissions increased between 2006 and 2007 (+5 %). The remaining GHG emissions from agricultural processes decreased after the introduction of improved manure handling systems. In 2008, total Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes of CO2 eq. per capita) were 7.26, which was a reduction of almost 55 % compared to the base year (Fig. 1).
From 2005 onwards there was insignificant growth in total emissions. Changes in emissions varied, depending on the economic sector. For example, emissions in the industrial sector decreased compared to 2005, while they increased in the transport sector. In 2007, GDP grew by 19 % and emissions went up by 2 % compared with 2006.
The landscape is part of a country’s national identity and a factor in the quality of life of its population. The conservation, management and cultivation of the landscape to meet the economic, social, cultural, ecological and aesthetic needs of society are therefore among the main objectives identified in the National Sustainable Development Strategy.
The 2020 outlook
Compliance with EU requirements and the decommissioning of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant by the end of 2009 will increase the burden on other Lithuanian power plants burning fossil fuels, which will also push up GHG emissions. With a view to reducing Lithuania’s dependence on fuel imports and lowering GHG emissions from its territory, the National Energy Strategy approved in 2007 provides for a more extensive use of local renewable energy sources. The target share of energy from renewable sources is 12 % in the primary energy mix by 2010.
As a result of economic restructuring and efforts made to increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions, Lithuania should meet the 12 % target with existing domestic measures. However, the decommissioning of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant at the end of 2009 might lead to a sharp increase in emissions as growing demand for electricity will have to be satisfied by the existing power plants burning fossil fuels. This increase will amount to approximately 5.5 million tonnes of CO2 compared to the present quantity of GHG in the electricity production sector (from 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 in 2007 to 7.8 million tonnes in 2010). An assessment of the prospects for developing the country’s energy and transport sectors indicates that Lithuania will comply with requirements under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce GHG by 73 % in 2010 and by 45 % in 2020.
Existing and planned responses
Since 2002, Lithuania has successfully achieved one of the objectives of its National Sustainable Development Strategy: it has managed to keep growth in GHG emissions to a limit that is half of the country’s economic growth (Fig. 1 and 2). The combustion of fossil fuels is also one of the main sources of GHG emissions. Therefore both the National Sustainable Development Strategy and the National Energy Strategy provide for an increase in the share of energy from renewable sources. The National Energy Strategy is the main instrument for the development of Lithuanian energy policy, although a Renewable Energy Sources Act and a Renewable Energy Action Plan are also currently being prepared. The key measures for the reduction of GHG emissions in the energy and industry sectors also include the use of local and waste energy resources, energy efficiency and development of co-generation. In the transport sector, the Biomass, Biofuel and Bio-Oils Act provides for the development of measures to ensure that biofuels make up at least 5.75 % of all automotive fuels by 31 December 2010. To implement this Act, a programme of biofuel production and consumption has been developed for the period 2004–2010. In the energy mix for 2007, about 8.7 % of primary energy, 4.7 % of electrical energy and 4.6 % of biofuels were produced from renewable sources. If energy production from renewable sources maintains its current growth rate, the production targets likely to be achieved in 2010 are: 12 % of primary energy, 7 % of electrical energy and 5.75 % of biofuels from renewable sources.
For a small island state situated in the southern European area of the Mediterranean, Malta is considered to be very vulnerable to the predicted impacts of climate change. Whilst Malta is not considered to be a significant contributor to global GHG emissions, it has taken on the responsibility to curb such emissions, illustrating that everyone is capable of taking a degree of mitigating action comparable to the nation’s capacity and capability.
Drivers for climate change mitigation
The key drivers of GHG emissions are socio-economic: demography, economic development, transport, etc. Malta’s 2008 Environment Report (www.mepa.org.mt/ter08-drivingforces) indicates that, while Malta’s population has largely met its basic material needs, the population continues to place unsustainable demands on the environment, putting strains on natural resources and processes. It also notes that the number of vacant properties on the Islands has continued to rise, with 22.4 % of all dwellings lying permanently vacant in 2005. Urgent measures, including economic instruments and reorientation of the construction industry towards rehabilitation, are needed to address this issue in ways that do not place undue pressures on affordability and availability of housing, and take into account social and economic implications.
The 2008 Environment Report also states that tourism is an important economic sector in terms of GDP, but that it puts significant pressure on the environment due to additional consumption of resources, increase in waste generation and land take for tourism infrastructure. The report suggests that the industry will need to focus on ensuring a quality product that prevents undue pressure on Malta’s natural resources such as by spreading tourism intake more evenly throughout the year, and penetrating those niche markets that are generally more sensitive and supportive towards conservation.
Importantly for this topic, the Report notes that Malta’s environmental targets and objectives related to air pollution and climate change can only be met by decoupling its growing total energy demand from economic growth.
The Islands remain far from reaching EU renewable energy and energy efficiency targets. In order to reach these targets, Malta will need to reduce consumption and develop widespread use of alternative technologies. Malta’s continued rise in vehicle numbers is a matter of concern due to the environmental and social impacts of private motor vehicle use. The high percentage of imports of older and more polluting second-hand vehicles is also of concern. There is an urgent need to renew Malta’s car fleet with smaller and more efficient vehicles and to make public transport alternatives at least as reliable and attractive as private car use.
Although it is small in terms of employment and contribution to GDP, the agriculture sector is a major environmental player. Agricultural practices may have serious impacts in terms of pollution on the countryside. However good farming practices can positively influence countryside and landscape quality, and sustain key environmental resources such as biodiversity, soil and water.
Malta’s GHG emissions are low when compared to those of other EU Member States, reflecting the small size of the country in geographic, demographic and economic terms. Total GHG emissions increased by 49 % between 1990 and 2007. The flattening observed in Chart 3.4 could be the switch from coal for energy generation. The energy sector (including the energy industry, and transport and fuel combustion in the industrial, commercial, institutional and residential sectors) is the principal contributor (89 % of total emissions in 2007) to Malta’s GHG emissions. While in 1990, emissions from energy stood at 1,855 Gigagrams (Gg), by 2000 they had reached 2,328 Gg, to increase to 2,692 Gg in 2007. The second most significant contributor to Malta’s GHG emissions in 2007 was the waste sector (6.6 % of overall emissions). The contribution of agriculture and industrial processes is limited, both contributing approximately 2 % of total emissions in 2007, while solvents and other product use contributed 0.09 % of total emissions. The category Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LUFLUF) indicates estimates of carbon dioxide emissions and removals by particular vegetation types. This sector is estimated to contribute a removal of 2 % of Malta’s emissions, with a mean figure of -58.2 Gg CO2 sequestered annually between 1990 and 2007.
In terms of emissions per unit GDP (in billion euro at 2000 prices), there was an overall decrease of 18 % between 1990 and 2007 falling from approximately 812 to 662 thousand tons per billion euro respectively. The decrease in GHG emissions per unit GDP may possibly reflect a degree of decoupling of emissions from economic development over the whole time period, although there are significant fluctuations when comparing shorter time ranges (for example between 2000 and 2005, when the trend was increasing). With respect to per capita emissions, these grew by 33 % between 1990 and 2007, from approximately 5.47 tones per capita to 7.25 tons per capita respectively, although this trend seems to be stabilising over recent years. At the EU level, ten Member States reported increasing per capita emissions between 1990 and 2006. Despite this increase, Malta still had a relatively low GHG emission rate per capita in 2006 when compared to the EU-27 average, which in that year stood at 10.4 tons per capita.
It is pertinent in this context to examine changes to the energy intensity of the economy, which is a measure of the energy Malta uses to create a unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This indicator is calculated on the basis of a ratio between total energy produced and GDP. Total energy produced in the Maltese Islands can be estimated using net fossil fuel import values. The overall trend since 2000 has been for the energy intensity of the economy to decrease slightly; should this trend continue, it may point towards a shift towards a relative decoupling of energy consumption from economic activity. There is an urgent need to achieve an absolute decoupling of economic activity from energy use in the Maltese Islands.
The 2020 outlook
The IPPC’s fourth Assessment Report states that small islands have characteristics that make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise, and extreme events. Indeed, based on UN benchmarks, Malta is expected to suffer moderate impacts from climate change, mainly related to drought, deterioration of freshwater quality and availability, increased risk of floods, soil and coastal erosion, desertification, changes in sea level and biodiversity loss and degradation. As noted above, these impacts are expected to have an effect on human health, as well as on agriculture and fisheries due to the decreased period of rainfall, increase in flood intensity and reduction of soil nutrients as a consequence of run-off. It is also likely that fisheries may be affected by an increase in algal blooms resulting in a decrease in oxygen and changes in sea-water circulation. Furthermore, due to Malta’s dependence on coastal activities, its economic vulnerability is expected to be moderate to moderately high. However, as noted previously, these expectations are based on vulnerability assessments that to date may not have gone into sufficient depth and could be subject to significant changes if different approaches are taken. In order to address the uncertainties associated with the impacts of climate change in Malta, studies based on climate projections and impact scenarios relating to the islands are required, particularly since Malta’s small island characteristics make it especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise and extreme events. Indeed, Malta will need to adapt to climate change impacts and ensure sustainable development and economic growth within a changing climatic regime.
National sectoral projections with respect to GHG emissions in the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 have now been prepared on the basis of existing and planned measures. These measures are detailed below in the section on mitigation. In the energy sector (including transport), emissions are projected to decrease from 2,696 Gg CO2e in 2007 to 1,936 Gg CO2e in 2020 on the basis of existing measures, while with additional measures, a decrease to 1,782 Gg CO2e is expected. In the industrial processes sector, emissions are projected to increase from 69 Gg CO2e in 2007 to 70 Gg CO2e in 2020. A decrease from 74 Gg CO2e in 2007 to 69 Gg CO2e in 2020, and an increase from 170 Gg CO2e in 2007 to 279 Gg CO2e in 2020 are expected in the agriculture and waste sectors respectively.
Existing and planned responses
Responses to climate change address either mitigation or adaptation, although mitigation measures currently exceed those related to adaptation. In the area of mitigation, a raft of policies and measures has been initiated at a global, EU and national level. As an EU Member State, Malta is obliged to take on board all Community legislation that could result in the reduction or limitation of greenhouse gas emissions, including the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, through which Member States determine respective caps for emissions of greenhouse gases from relevant installations in their territory. For the period 2008 to 2012 Malta proposed an allocation of 14.8 million tonnes of CO2e, but this was later revised to 10.7 million tonnes of CO2 following a decision of the European Commission. In the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, WasteServ (Malta) Ltd has proposed to extract and use landfill gas from Ta’ Żwejra, delivering annual emissions savings of 19,000 tons of CO2e. The project is at validation stage and is pending registration with the CDM Executive Board.
At the national policy level, there has been much activity regarding the promotion of energy efficiency and RES: draft Renewable Energy and National Energy policies were published in 2006, while a National Energy Efficiency Action Plan and a revised draft Energy Policy for Malta were published in 2008 and 2009 respectively. A Climate Change Committee also issued its consultation report in January 2009. The 2008 EU climate-energy package envisages a substantial increase in the use of RES for Malta by 2020. In order to achieve this, Malta will need to invest in research and development, as well as commission a range of renewable energy technologies. The draft RES policy identifies wind energy as one of the most cost-effective solutions, and as of end 2008, Government was assessing the viability of both onshore and offshore wind farms.
The principal climate change mitigation measures are documented in Malta’s biennial programme and measures report. They originate from a number of sectors, including energy, waste and land use, and make use of various mechanisms such as technical, regulatory, economic, voluntary and informational instruments. In the energy sector, four technical measures address energy supply, while a mix of economic, technical, regulatory and information/education/research tools address energy demand and RES. The energy demand and RES measures have targeted a number of sectors: while economic instruments have been used in the residential and industrial sectors, voluntary measures have been taken in state schools and social housing, and technical and educational measures have been used at waste management facilities. The informational and regulatory measures did not target any particular sector.
Various measures are in the pipeline for the transport sector, while four regulatory and economic measures in the waste sector mainly target emissions and RES. In the land use sector, afforestation projects should increase Malta’s area covered by permanent vegetation, while MEPA guidance encourages energy conservation measures and the possibility of energy audits for major projects. However, the important role of development planning as a tool for mitigating and adapting to climate change needs to be recognised further. In this respect, mitigation and adaptation measures will need to be integrated within development plans and related subsidiary policies and regulations. Meanwhile energy and environment have become national research priorities, while the University of Malta has developed a capacity in climate modelling.
There is still need, however, to sustain efforts towards achieving absolute decoupling of economic activity and GHG emissions. In this context, it is important to initiate both supply-side measures, such as investing in a range of cleaner and more efficient energy technologies, including renewables and high-efficiency cogeneration, as well as demand management measures. These would include measures such as energy efficiency in buildings, and in the transport sector. These mitigation efforts, which are being carried out in the absence of specific scenarios, need to be in line with sustainability.
The Republic of Moldova ratified the Kyoto Protocol on February 13, 2003 (the official date of accession was April 22, 2003). As a non-Annex I Party, the Republic of Moldova has no commitments to reduce GHG emissions under this Protocol.
Republic of Moldova‘s Contribution to Global Warming
In 1990, RM contributes only about 0.3 percent of total global GHG emissions. Within the 1990-2005, the total national GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) decreased by 72.3 percent, from 42,886.0 Gg CO2 eq. in 1990, to 11,883.5 Gg CO2 eq. in 2005.
Institutional Arrangements for Inventory Preparation
Within the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MENR), the Climate Change Office (CCO) is totally responsible for the activities related to preparation of National Communications (NCs) and Greenhouse Gas Inventories, comprising the National Inventory Reports (NIRs) and
Common Reporting Framework Tables (IPCC Sectoral and Summary Report Tables).
The national inventory is structured to match the reporting requirement of the UNFCCC and is divided into six main sectors: (1) Energy, (2) Industrial Processes, (3) Solvents and Other Products Use, (4) Agriculture, (5) Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry and (6) Waste. Each of these sectors is further subdivided within the inventory. Emissions of direct (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC and SF6) and indirect (NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2) greenhouse gases were estimated based on methodologies contained in the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 1997), Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2000), Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF (IPCC, 2003), Atmospheric Emissions Inventory Guidebook (CORINAIR, 1996, 1999, 2005) and 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).
In order to prioritize efforts aimed at improving the overall quality of the inventory, based on recommendations set forth in the Good Practice Guidance (IPCC, 2000), the key categories were identified for the time series 1990 through 2005, the analysis of which was carried out based on Tier 1 methodological approach, with LULUCF: 18 key categories by level (L) and 16 key categories by trend (T); without LULUCF: 17 key categories by level (L) and 13 key categories
by trend (T).
Quality Assurance and Quality Control
The basic Quality Assurance and Quality Control activities carried out in the Republic of Moldova included detailed specific procedures implied by Tier 1 approach (general procedures) and Tier 2 approach (source-specific), and standard verification and quality control forms and checklists that serve to standardize the process of implementing quality assurance and quality control activities meant to ensure the quality of the national inventory; technical review (audit) carried out by experts who were not directly involved in the national inventory compilation/development process; activity data quality check, including by comparing data obtained from different sources, as well as further documentation of the national inventory development process. As the entity responsible for the national inventory development, the CCO holds all documentation used for inventory compilation.
The National GHG Inventory Team revised and recalculated GHG emissions and CO2 removals for each calendar year covered by the First National GHG Inventory for the period from 1990 through 1998, a component part of the FNC (2000). These activities were carried out during the ongoing process of improving the quality of the National GHG Inventory. Under current inventory cycle, improvements were made in all sectors (use of higher tier methodologies, revision of previously used methodological approaches and emission factors, activity data, inclusion of new emission sources, etc.), entailing the need to make recalculations of national GHG emissions for the time period from 1990 through 1998. In comparison with the results reported under the FNC (2000), the changes made during the development of the current inventory, resulted in increased values of national direct greenhouse gas emissions for the 1990-1998 periods, with a variation from a minimum of 18.7 percent in 1998, to a maximum of 34.5 percent in 1995.
In the Republic of Moldova, the GHG emissions were estimated with the highest possible accuracy, however, the obtained results have a certain degree of uncertainty. Some emissions estimates, such as for example, CO2emissions from fossil fuels combustion, or CO2 emissions from cement production, are considered to have minimal uncertainty. For other source categories, because of the poor quality of activity data, as well as a consequence of limited understanding of the emissions generation process, the uncertainty is quite high. The overall inventory uncertainty was estimated using a Tier 1 methodological approach (IPCC, 2000), that is ±16.0 percent uncertainty by level, and ±3.9 percent uncertainty by trend.
Generally speaking, the national inventory of the Republic of Moldova is a complete register of the following direct greenhouse gases – CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC and SF6 (emissions of perfluorocarbons – PFC have not been registered yet). The national inventory also covers the following indirect greenhouse gases: CO, NOx, NMVOC and SO2. Despite the effort to cover all existent source/sink categories, the inventory still has some gaps, most being determined by lack of activity data needed to estimate certain emissions and removals.
Reporting Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Carbon dioxide continue to contribute most to the total national direct GHG emissions in the Republic of Moldova. In the time series from 1990 through 2005, the total CO2 emissions (without LULUCF) decreased by circa 78.2 percent; reduction of CO2 emissions is even more significant, if contribution of LULUCF Sector is considered, circa 81.3 percent; emissions of CH4 (without LULUCF) have decreased by 39.5 percent, while emissions of N2O (without LULUCF) decreased by 58.1 percent.
Energy Sector is the most important source of national direct GHG emissions (without LULUCF), its share varying from 80.5 percent to 65.0 percent over the time series from 1990 through 2005. Other relevant sources are represented by Agriculture Sector (having a share of 12.4 percent in
1990 and respectively 17.9 percent in 2005), Waste Sector (3.8 percent in 1990 and respectively 11.8 percent in 2005), and Industrial Processes Sector (3.1 percent in 1990 and respectively 4.9 percent in 2005). In the time series 1990 through 2005, total direct emissions and removals in the Republic of Moldova tended to decrease, so emissions under Energy Sector decreased by circa 77.6 percent; Industrial Processes Sector – by circa 56.9 percent; Solvents and Other Products Use Sector – by circa 25.3 percent; Agriculture Sector – by 60.0 percent; LULUCF Sector – by 17.5 percent; and Waste Sector – by 14.0 percent.
Republic of Moldova’s Commitments under the UNFCCC
Under the UNFCCC the RM undertook commitments in four important areas: (1) GHG inventory and emissions mitigation commitments implied by Art. 4 p. 1 par. a, b, c, d and Art. 12 p. 1 and 4; (2) climate change adaptation commitments implied by Art. 4 p. 1 par. e, f; (3) commitments to promote research and systematic observations implied by Art. 4 p. 1 par. g, h and Art. 5; (4) commitments to promote education, training and build public awareness implied by Art. 4 p. 1 par. i and Art. 6 par. a, b.
National Priorities for Meeting Convention Objectives
Based on the country’s commitments under the UNFCCC, the Republic of Moldova identified the national priorities regarding to Convention implementation: (1) strengthening the national policies on climate change; (2) assessing vulnerability and adaptations measures to climate change; (3) strengthening the National Inventory System; (4) Mitigation of GHG emissions and Increase in Carbon Removals; (5) wider use of the Clean Development Mechanism of Kyoto Protocol; (6) implementing a more aggressive policy on transfer of the environment-sound technologies; (7) further developing of the research and observations system on climate change; (8) public awareness raising and ecological education; (9) intensifying the process of international cooperation, inclusive under the post-Kyoto negotiation process.
Sectoral Policies and Activities Envisaged to Implement the Convention
Energy Sector. The following relevant policies envisaged to implement the Convention were identified for the energy sector: (1) improvement of the legislative-regulatory sector framework and implementation of sector policies with direct or indirect impact on UNFCCC implementation in the
Republic of Moldova, in particular the Energy Strategy of the Republic of Moldova until the year of 2020 and the National Development Strategy for 2008-2011; (2) assuring energy security of the country by improving the interconnection capacities with the neighbouring countries and construction of new local sources of power generation based on the most recent and advanced environment friendly technologies; (3) full implementation of measures stipulated in the National
Gasification Program of the Republic of Moldova until the year of 2010; (4) increasing the share of renewable sources of energy in the energy balance of the country up to 6 percent in 2010 and up to 20 percent in 2020, what will allow to reduce national GHG emissions by circa 167-210 thousand tonnes CO2 equivalent annually; (5) full implementation of measures stipulated in the National Energy Conservation Program for 2003-2010, which implies significant reduction of energy consumption by developing and implementing energy efficient technologies, thermal rehabilitation of buildings, energy transport and distribution grids, use of renewable sources of energy, education of all categories of consumers, pilot projects implementation, etc.
Transport Sector. The following relevant policies envisaged to implement the Convention were identified for the transport sector: (1) strengthening the legislative-regulatory sector framework (Law on Civil Aviation, 1997; Road Transport Code, 1999; Code of Commercial Maritime Navigation, 1999; Railway Transport Code, 2003; Concept of Waterborne Navigation Development, 2008) and implementation of sector policies with direct or indirect impact on UNFCCC implementation, in particular the Strategy for the terrestrial transport infrastructure for 2008-2017; (2) rehabilitation and development of the terrestrial transport infrastructure, thus assuring a positive impact on health and safety of population by decreasing the number of accidents
and reducing air pollution due to a more constant driving speed achieved on the rehabilitated segments of the road; (3) identification and implementation of organizational and technological measures to reduce polluting emissions (inclusively, by technical verification of vehicles, certification of vehicles, authorization of re-equipment, repairs and technical servicing stations, training and re-training of road transport professionals, evaluation of conformity of transport products and services, implementing the drivers’ workrest regime control, etc.); (4) renewal of the rolling stock park in conformity with the Urban Transport Development Action Plan, etc.
Industry Sector. The following relevant policies envisaged to implement the Convention were identified for the industry sector: (1) reducing the consumption of energy resources by promoting energy efficiency and energy conservation policies in the industry sector (National Energy Conservation Program for 2003–2010; Energy Efficiency Improvement Program in Industry for 2004–2008; Industry Development Strategy until the year of 2015; National Strategy for Sustainable Development of Agribusiness in the Republic of Moldova for 2008-2015; National Development Strategy for 2008-2011); (2) promoting clean production; (3) incentivizing enterprises to reduce the amount of waste they generate and recycling waste into secondary raw materials; (4) modernization and use of installations to collect and treat toxic substances, etc.
Agriculture Sector. The following relevant policies envisaged to implement the Convention were identified for the agriculture sector: (1) strengthening the legislative-regulatory sector framework (Land Code, 1991; Code of Waters, 1993; Law on Selection and Reproduction in Animal Breeding,
1995; Law on Horticulture, 1996; Law on Animal Breeding, 1999; Law on Plant Protection, 1999; Law on Nut Crops, 1999; Law on Phyto-Sanitary Products and Fertilisers, 2004; Law on Subsidising Agricultural Risks, 2004; Law on Grapes and Wine, 2006; Law on Tobacco and Tobacco Products, 2008; Law on Sanitary-Veterinary Activity, 2008; Law on Plant Varieties Protection, 2008, etc.) and fullest implementation of sector policies with direct or indirect impact
on the UNFCCC implementation, in particular the Action Plan to National Complex Program to Enhance Soil Fertility in 2001-2020; National Complex Program to Use Degraded Lands and Enhance Soil Fertility, Land Consolidation Program; National Development Strategy for 2008-2011, and National Strategy for Sustainable Development of Agribusiness for 2008-2015; (2) revitalization of the animal breeding sector by renewing the high productivity livestock; assuring support in view of creation of modern dairy and meat farms by using advanced technologies; maintaining and improving the genetic pool of the breeding animals; incentivizing equipment and upgrading of small and medium animal breeding farms in rural areas outside villages; developing a complex and stable agricultural system in each agro-pedoclimatic zone, inclusively through integration of a plant growing and animal breeding sectors, etc. (3) sustainable development of agribusiness, inclusively through optimized crop structure and increasing the share of leguminous crops which enrich the soil with nitrogen; enriching agricultural soils with carbon by sustainable fertilisation practices of applying manure and crop residues to soil (other components of sustainable agriculture such as: forestry practices, practicing integrating crops and green fertiliser, are also efficient in this sense); reducing soil cultivation (traditional ploughing favour decomposition of organic matter in the soil, thus essentially contributing to increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere), etc.
Forestry Sector. The following relevant policies envisaged to implement the Convention were identified for the forestry sector: (1) strengthening of the legislative-regulatory sector framework (Law on Environment Protection, 1993; Forestry Code, 1996; Law on Natural Areas Protected by State, 1998; Law on Improving the Degraded Lands by Afforestation, 2000), and fullest implementation of sector policies with direct or indirect impact on the UNFCCC implementation, in particular of Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Forestry Sector (2001), National Strategy and Action Plan on Biologic Diversity Conservation (2001), National Complex Program to Use Degraded Lands and Enhance Soil Fertility (2003), State Program for Re-Generation and Afforestation of the Lands Belonging to the Forest Fund for 2003-2020; (2) strengthening of eco-protective and bio-productive potential of the existent forests by stopping their degradation, conservation, regeneration and re-construction of forests ecosystems by switching from the grove mode to the ‘Codrii’ (forest) mode, wider use of massive regeneration treatments, gradual replacement of poorly productive standing stock which does not comply with stationary conditions;
(3) rational use of forestry resources; (4) increasing the efficiency of the forest fund guarding and protection activities, decreasing the illegal logging, elimination of other infringements of forestry legislation; (4) assuring scientific support for sustainable development of the national forestry sector; (5) expansion of forest covered areas and creation of ecological interconnection corridors between wooded areas; (6) increasing the area and quality of grasslands; (7) development of communal forests; (8) creation of energy forests, etc.
Waste Sector. The following relevant policies envisaged to implement the Convention were identified for the waste sector: (1) strengthening the legislative-regulatory sector framework (Law on Environment Protection, 1993; Law on Domestic and Industrial Waste, 1997; Law on Atmospheric Air Protection, 1997; Law on Environment Pollution Payment, 1998; etc.) and fullest implementation of sector policies with direct or indirect impact on the UNFCCC implementation,
in particular of National Program on Using Domestic and Industrial Waste (2000); National Strategy to Reduce and Eliminate the Persistent Organic Pollutants, and National Plan for Stockholm Convention Implementation (2004); Program for Water Supply and Sewerage in the Settlements of the Republic of Moldova until the 2015 year (2006); the Concept of Sanitation of Settlements in the Republic of Moldova (2007); Strategy on Water Supply and Sewerage in the Settlements of the Republic of Moldova (2007); (2) minimization, separate collection and recycling of recyclable elements (paper, glass, metals, PET) of the municipal solid waste; (3) centralized depositing of waste at the solid waste disposal sites in conformity with the Standard Technological Scheme for the Solid Waste Deposit Sites (2001); (4) construction and putting into operation the
Waste Incineration Plant in Chisinau, starting the year of 2011, with a maximal capacity of 660 thousand tonnes of municipal solid waste annually; (5) reconstruction of the existent and construction of new waste water treatment plants, assuring aerobic treatment of the whole amount of the generated domestic and industrial wastewater.
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
The following priority GHG emissions abatement measures have been identified for the Energy Sector: (1) promoting abatement policies and measures in all sub-sectors of the Energy Sector: in production (inclusively through upgrading and modernization of the power plants and increasing the energy units efficiency), transportation (reduce costs and losses of energy in electricity transport and distribution networks (including through rehabilitation and upgrading of existent systems to technically and scientifically more advanced level, as well as through streamlining and optimization of networks as a whole), and consumption (increasing energy efficiency in all branches of the national economy); and wide implementation of new energy efficient technologies (use of heat pumps, co-generation and threegeneration); (2) including the local fuels, secondary energy resources, renewable energy sources (in particular biomass, wind and solar energy), and domestic and industrial wastes into the energy balance of the country; (3) use of low intensity GHG emissions fossil fuels (natural gas and residual fuel oil rather than coal); (4) compliance with the European environment pollution prevention norms and standards; (5) development of a State Program on Liberalization of the Energy Market and providing conditions for attracting investments in the Energy Sector; (6) maintenance in good condition of the main gas pipelines and gas distribution networks; (7) replacement of corrosive pipelines made of cast iron and steel by pipelines made of non-corrosive materials, what will allow to reduce methane leakage from distribution systems; (8) use of the most advanced technologies at compression and distribution systems; (9) putting into practice good management systems and operational procedures to reduce ventilation (10) implementing management practices aimed at detecting leakage and technological losses; (11) implementing electronic monitoring programs, including with a view to regulate the distribution systems operating at higher pressure than required; (12) flaring of methane at well-sites (in conformity with the GWP for a period of 100 years, 1 kg of CH4 emitted in the atmosphere equals 21 kg CO2, while flaring of 1 kg CH4 produces only 2.75 kg CO2); (13) re-injecting fugitive emissions from oil extraction back into the oil fields, etc.
The following priority GHG emissions abatement measures have been identified for the Transport sector: (1) applying economic and fiscal measures to stimulate renewal of the vehicles pool, rolling stock, naval and maritime fleet; (2) rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads and railways, re-arranging internal navigation ways and improving the operation parameters of the hydraulic engineering installations; (3) optimization of urban and interurban transport networks, freight and passenger traffic, including by deviation of the traffic from the densely populated areas (construction of circuit roads around the towns, imposing circulation restrictions in the central parts of the towns, etc.); (4) facilitation of the public transport use and development of public transport networks in the main towns of the country; (5) large scale use of electric transport, including by extending urban and interurban electric transport networks; (6) increasing the share of road vehicles using LPG and LNG as fuel; (7) use of road vehicles operating on hydrogen and biofuel, other state-of-the-art technologies applicable in transport sector; (8) limiting the effective life of the road vehicles at import (from 7 to 5 years for passenger vehicles and from 10 to 7 years for trucks and buses); (9) implementing mandatory technical check-up of all vehicles and trailers.
Industrial Processes Sector
The following priority GHG emissions abatement measures have been identified for the Industrial Processes sector: (1) maintenance in good condition of the equipment and employment of modern technological processes in view of rational use of natural resources and energy, and reducing production wastes; (2) accounting the consumption of the raw materials and energy, efficient management of production process; (3) employment of efficient management systems and reducing production losses, inclusively by use of recycled materials; (4) fugitive emissions recovery; (5) improving and supplementing the legal framework with the European efficiency and emissions standard (Admissible Emissions Limits); (6) implementing the initiatives on differentiated application of taxes for energy efficiency and emissions reduction; (7) entering into voluntary agreements on reducing emissions from the industrial enterprises in the country; (8) pursuing aggressive policies on transfer of environmental sounds technologies and commercial demonstration of clean technologies within the industrial and innovation parks, etc.
The following priority GHG emissions abatement measures have been identified for the agricultural sector: (1) gradual replacement of breeds of livestock and poultry currently used in the Republic of Moldova with higher productivity breeds; (2) quality improvement of the forage supply reserve by reducing the specific forage consumption in livestock breeding sector; (3) use of sustainable manure management systems; (4) improving the crops range, including through optimization of crop rotation, increasing the share of perennial and annual crops, extending the areas sown with forage crops and reducing the areas planted with sunflower; (5) improving soil fertilization techniques, correct application of industrial fertilisers, using all organic matter sources to enrich soils with carbon and achieving a balanced content of humus and nutrients in soil; (6) implementing sustainable soil management practices, combating soil degradation through diverse complex measures, including anti-erosion measures, etc.
The most efficient measures to increase the carbon dioxide removal capacities under the Forestry Sector are as following: (1) speeding up expansion of areas covered by forests and other types of forest vegetation on account of public and private lands; (2) implementing a new phase of expanding the areas covered with forests (on the account of eroded lands and, planting energy forests, etc.); (3) keeping the indicators regarding wood mass harvesting from sanitation treatments at the current level compliant with provisions of effective legislation; (4) decreasing the amount of wood mass from illegal cuttings; (5) ecological reconstruction of the forest stand; (6) in conformity with some models of climate evolution in the first half of the XXI century, a slight increase of woods productivity is possible (up to 10 percent), what will also result in an increased amount of removals of carbon dioxide emissions; (7) significant expansion of areas covered with forest vegetation in the context of more active promotion of agricultural-forestry and forestry-pastoral practices: improving grasslands by planting groups of trees and shrubs, delimitation of external boundaries and internal plots of the grasslands by planting forest belts, etc.; (8) implementing grasslands improvement / revitalization activities: increasing the current capacity of 0.6–1.2 tonnes of constant mass per hectare up to 4-5 tonnes of constant mass per hectare; (9) expansion of grasslands on the account of agricultural lands affected by erosion.
The following priority GHG emissions abatement measures have been identified for the Waste Sector: (1) recovery of recyclable materials (objectives: recovery of paper and cardboard in proportion up to 20 percent of the total by 2010, in proportion up to 30 percent by 2015, in proportion up to 40 percent by 2020; in proportion up to 50 percent by 2025 and in proportion up to 60 percent by 2030); (2) biogas recovery at the domestic solid waste deposits sites (in 2009 the company “Biogas Inter” Ltd has already initiated methane recovery at the Cretoaia landfill, Anenii-Noi district; objective: recovery of circa 3-5 thousand tonnes of biogas annually over the period of time up to year 2018); (3) construction and putting into operation of a waste incinerating plant in
Chişinau starting year of 2011, having a maximal rated capacity of circa 660 thousand tonnes of municipal solid waste annually; (4) reconstruction of wastewater treatment facilities in the country and proper management of the water supply and sewage sector focused on employment of aerobic treatment of wastewater and anaerobic treatment of sludge technologies allowing to capture methane emissions.
Montenegro became a member of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 27 January 2007 as a non-Annex 1 country. The Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2007. Since EU accession is a national priority, harmonisation of Montenegrin legislation with the relevant parts of the acquis communautaire on the environment and climate change is a very important part of this process.
The issue of climate change is addressed in Montenegro’s first national report on climate change, based on the UNFCCC. Submission of this document to the Convention Secretariat is scheduled for October 2010. This first national report presents detailed national characteristics and a national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, a general description of steps taken or planned for the implementation of the Convention, vulnerability assessment, climate change adaptation and mitigation measures and other information relevant to the objectives of the Convention. It also details obstacles, shortcomings and requirements in terms of financial and technical resources to strengthen the capacity for reporting.
During the period 1949-2005 changes occurred in the value of climatic parameters for air temperature and precipitation at the national level. Measurements indicate a clear trend towards an increase in air temperatures throughout most of the territory of Montenegro in the second half of the twentieth century. Summers have become very hot, especially over the last 18 years. For the summer period from 1991 to 2005, average temperature deviations from the climatological norm, expressed as a percentage, ranged from 90 to 98 %. Moreover, results of scenarios for future climatic models in the region indicate that there will be further significant change in temperature, for example during the period 2071-2100, the northern part of the country will experience an increase in summer temperatures by up to 4.8 0C.
Annual precipitation is generally stable. Exceptions are the northern regions of Montenegro and the coast. In the north-east of the state, precipitation has been increasing since 1949, whereas on the coast there is a trend towards a slight reduction. Model results indicate both negative and positive change in precipitation, depending on the zone and the season.
One consequence of global warming is an increase in sea level. Predictions for the upper limit increase in sea level in the Mediterranean Sea basin (including the Adriatic-Ionian basin) for the period 2071-2100 is +35 cm. An increase of this calibre in the Adriatic Sea will have serious consequences. Water will permanently flood a large part of the coast that is already at risk of flooding and tidal flood waves will significantly increase the flood area, even in zones that have never been flooded before and a great many beaches will disappear.
Greenhouse gas inventory for 1990
In its first national report Montenegro determined 1990 as the base year for its GHG inventory. For 1990, total GHG emissions amounted to 691.56 Gg of CO2, 27.02 Gg of CH4 and 1.19 Gg of N2O. CO2 gas is the main GHG with a share of 53.08 %. The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed in the “sinks” is 485.00 Gg. Calculated emissions of PFC gases from the aluminium industry were 0.1936 Gg of CF4 and 00:02 C2F6. The total amount of CO2 equivalent is 4 585.28 Gg
(5 070.28 Gg excluding the contribution from sinks). The energy sector contributes 92 % of CO2 emissions, which corresponds to 2 491.92 Gg, calculated on the basis of sectoral approaches. The remaining 8 % (199.64 Gg) comes from industrial emissions.
The total CO2 equivalent emission (including sinks) per capita is 7.7 tonnes CO2 eq/citizen, ranking Montenegro among the low-emission countries in relation to developed countries. The ratio of CO2 emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels (4.55 t CO2 eq/citizen) is favourable because of a significant share of synthetic gases in the total emissions. Montenegro’s Environmental Protection Agency is currently collecting data for the GHG inventory for 2010.
The main characteristic of the energy sector in Montenegro is the high intensity of energy consumption. This is primarily due to the large share of industrial consumers using outdated and insufficiently energy-efficient technology. Energy consumption is also inefficient in the household and services sector, especially with regard to heating and the use of electricity. Traffic is characterised by a constant increase in the number of vehicles and the consumption of motor fuels. Other sectors have lower consumption and therefore do not represent a problem at present, but they may do so in the future if consumption rates continue to rise and measures are not taken to promote energy efficiency.
Depending on how energy needs are met in certain sectors, two scenarios were considered for the period 2010-2025: a reference scenario, with a complete absence of measures to reduce GHG emissions and a scenario with measures to reduce GHG emissions.
To create GHG emission scenarios it is necessary to make projections on the growth of energy demand. These projections are based on assumptions concerning economic development and demographic growth. The basic indicators of economic development are the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and the development of its structure during the period in question. Thus the following basic parameters are assumed in terms of energy needs for the development of Montenegro:
- average annual growth rate of the economy: 6 %
- average annual growth rate of the population: 0.16 %.
Power generation for the Montenegrin electricity system currently comes from the Pljevlja thermal power plant, that uses lignite as fuel, two large hydroelectric power plants (Piva and Perućica) and 6 smaller ones. The existing plants will be operational until 2025.
The reference scenario for the development of electric power is based on the assumption that the Pljevlja thermal power plant will increase its capacity from 210 MW to 225 MW in the period up to 2010 and that new electricity generating capacity will be developed: a second block at the Pljevlja thermal power plant will generate 225 MW of power from 2015 and the Moraca hydroelectric plant (Andrijevo, Milunović, Raslovići and Zlatica) will be gradually introduced into the system between 2013 and 2018, resulting in a total capacity of 238.4 MW.
The scenario with measures to reduce GHG emissions in the electricity sector offers an alternative to the construction of another thermal block at the Pljevlja plant. This scenario is oriented towards the exploitation of new renewable energy sources and primarily based on small hydro and wind farms. In addition to the various production structures, this scenario includes increasing the efficiency of the existing block at the Pljevlja thermal power plant. New production facilities include small hydroelectric plants totalling 80.2 MW of power that will become part of the system between 2010 and 2012; wind power totalling 96 MW and 168 MW of power from the hydroelectric power plant Komarnica that will go into operation in 2017.
The transport sector is responsible for approximately 10 % of total energy consumption in Montenegro. Almost 90 % of the energy consumed in transport comes from road traffic, predominantly cars. This trend is expected to increase in the future, due to the growth in the number of cars and a reduction in the number of passengers per car. Road transport is the sector that offers the main potential for introducing energy efficiency measures (EE) to rationalise energy consumption. Measures being introduced in the transport sector focus on the development of sustainable transport.
In order to reduce GHG emissions in road traffic, it is necessary to implement a package of measures including:
- An increase in the energy efficiency of Montenegro’s vehicle fleet
- The introduction of alternative fuels and substitutes for existing fossil fuels
- The planning and establishment of a more efficient transport system.
Policies, measures and assessment of reduction in GHG emissions
The assessment of potential GHG emissions reductions was performed in accordance with approved development plans for the national economy. The assessment involved identifying appropriate measures, and developing projects and practical examples that can be implemented between 2010 and 2025 in key sectors: energy, industry, agriculture, land use change, forestry and waste. The measures were defined for each sector separately. Work on the assessment of GHG emissions was difficult due to the lack of sectoral development plans addressing climate change issues and the non-availability of data and other corresponding national studies. This was particularly relevant in the sectors of agriculture and forestry, which is why it was impossible to quantify the measures for GHG emission reduction in these sectors.
Based on the gas inventory for 1990, the sectors with the largest contribution to total GHG emissions in Montenegro appear to be energy (over 50 %, mainly CO2 emissions) and industry (around 32 %, predominantly emissions of synthetic gases - CF4).
Projections of GHG emissions in Montenegro have been made for the energy sector and the non-energy sector (industrial processes and waste). Assessment of GHG emissions reduction is based on two scenarios: a reference scenario and a scenario with measures for GHG emissions reduction (See Energy section above).
By summing up the effects of proposed measures to reduce GHG emissions in the sectors analysed, we obtain an overview of their effect on GHG emission levels in Montenegro until 2025. The projected results are presented in Figure 2. The 1990 level of GHG emissions is also indicated for comparison.
According to the projections for GHG emissions in the reference scenario, by 2025 the level of GHG emissions will have increased by approximately 40 % against 1990. On the other hand, in the scenario with measures for GHG emission reduction, by 2025 the projected level of GHG emissions will be approximately 46 % lower than the level for the same year in the reference scenario, and 25 % lower than the level in 1990.
The Ministry of Physical Planning and Environment (MPPE) has the main responsibility for climate change in Montenegro. The Ministry creates policies and adopts relevant regulations, while the Environmental Protection Agency, as an executive body, implements climate change policy. In 2008, an authorised national body was established within the Ministry for approving Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects.
The Environmental Protection Agency was established in early 2009 to carry out activities in the field of environmental protection. In institutional terms, the establishment of the Agency represents a significant strengthening of capacities in the field of environmental protection, including climate change, and is an essential prerequisite for the implementation of legislation. A technical and operational body for the implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism has been established within the Agency which will also be responsible for managing the GHG gas inventory. An inventory team will be responsible for the selection of methodology, data collection (input data and emission factors provided by statistical services and other organisations), data development and archiving and the implementation of quality control and quality assurance (QA/QC).
Energy Policy comes under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Economy of Montenegro. Energy policy and energy development are based on EU requirements in this field. The basic objective is to identify sustainable, secure and competitive energy supplies.
An agreement on Energy Community (Energy Community Treaty) was signed in 2005 and entered into force in 2006 . This agreement represented Montenegro’s first legally-binding document towards the EU.
Fundamental long-term planning documents are the Energy Policy of Montenegro and the Energy Development Strategy to 2025. These energy policy and strategy documents form the basis for an action plan which aims to implement the Strategy. These documents are complementary, since they have the same goal: to develop a specific vision for energy and determine how this vision will be realised.
The new Energy Act (passed on 22 April 2010) transposes into Montenegrin law the EU Directive 2001/77 on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable sources in the internal electricity market and the EU Directive 2009/28 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. This Act also provided incentives for using renewable energy sources and encouraging cogeneration.
The increase in temperature is also evident in Poland. The last decade of the 20th century was particularly warm, although the rising trend in average annual temperatures can be seen both at meteorological stations located on the outskirts of towns and those situated in areas with limited anthropogenic impacts, for example at Mount Śnieżka, where the increase amounted to 0.6 oC per 100 years. A similar increase in the average annual temperature has been recorded at stations located along the Baltic coast, with long observed data series (Gdańsk–Wrzeszcz, Hel and Koszalin), as well as the Warsaw Observatory weather station. Also, a comparison of average annual temperatures for the whole territory of Poland for 1991‑2000 compared to the thirty-year period 1961‑1990 (the WMO reference period) has shown that the last decade of the 20th century was 0.6 oC warmer, with the highest increase in temperatures occurring in the winter months: 1.9 oC warmer in January and 1.5 oC in February. In December, however, temperature values were identical in the comparable periods and lower in October and November by 0.2 ºC and 0.7 ºC, respectively. A similar trend showing a higher increase in temperature in winter than in summer has been observed throughout Europe. Figure 1 below shows the average annual temperatures recorded at the Warsaw Okęcie weather station since 1971.
Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system. The anticipated climate changes will, for the most part, have an adverse impact on many systems and sectors. For example: the expected increased prevalence of meteorological highs and the related high air temperatures, combined with increased solar radiation and contamination, will contribute to the deterioration of air quality, among other things through an increase in the ozone concentration levels in the layers of the atmosphere closest to the Earth. Also, the anticipated impact of climate change can be seen mainly through changes in the water balance, in particular increased low tides, increased evaporation, the deteriorating quality of inland waters and an increased frequency of extreme hydrological conditions (droughts and floods), whilst prolonged dry seasons and warmer winters may result in an increase in the pest population, leading to a further decline of forests. Higher temperatures in the summer may lead to an increased fire risk. Changes to the flora caused by climate change and economic use of land may lead to a fragmentation of plant populations and a reduced biological diversity in forest ecosystems.
The key drivers and pressures
Greenhouse gas emissions in Poland, without taking into account the greenhouse gas balance arising from land use, changes in land use and forestry, amounted to almost 399 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2007 and have not exceeded 400 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent since 1999. In 1988, those emission levels were much higher, reaching almost 570 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. In 1988–1990, there was a significant reduction in emissions to approximately 460 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, as a result of changes in the political system and economic reforms. This situation resulted from the political transformation commenced and the transition from central planning to a free market economy, resulting in the collapse of many sectors of industry with high energy consumption levels and high emissions.
The main greenhouse gas produced in Poland is CO2 (82 % of emissions). The majority of emissions of that gas come from fuel combustion (92 %), both from stationary sources (such as power plants, co-generation plants) and mobile sources (transport), whilst the remainder, i.e. over 7 %, are connected with industrial processes.
An analysis of the changes in greenhouse gas emissions by reference to changes in GDP and the consumption of primary energy and electric energy shows that economic growth observed since 1990 had been accompanied by a stabilisation (until 1997) of, and a subsequent reduction in, greenhouse gas emissions. Trends relating to changes in the consumption of primary energy and electric energy are identical to the pattern of changes in greenhouse gas emissions, although the gap between emissions and primary energy consumption has been widening since 1999, pointing to, among others, a more efficient use of energy in the Polish economy.
It must be emphasised that, despite a dynamic growth of the economy in the period 1990-2007, resulting in, for example, GDP growth of over 75 %, greenhouse gas emissions remain at a stable level of approximately 30 % below the 1988 emission levels. This was possible due to a widespread implementation of modern technologies in industry and the introduction of many instruments, including legal instruments, promoting low-emission and energy-saving solutions.
The 2020 outlook
The greenhouse gas emission outlook has been presented in the Fifth Government Report for the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The presented national projections included forecast greenhouse gas emissions until 2030 (divided into 2015, 2020 and 2030), taking into account the adopted and implemented policies and measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These projections constitute a “with measures” scenario. Under the “with measures” scenario, the forecast emissions of greenhouse gases, in particular CO2, are reduced by 2020, then increase in 2030, reaching the level of 387 948 Gg of CO2 equivalent.
Existing and planned responses
The main measures supporting efforts aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions include, first of all, increasing the energy efficiency of the economy, promoting and implementing technologies using renewable energy sources and absorbing carbon dioxide, taking steps aimed at reducing emissions from transport, as well as promoting sustainable forms of waste management, agriculture and forestry.
Poland ratified the Climate Convention in 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, undertaking to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) during the period from 2008 to 2012 by 6 % by reference to the emissions in the baseline year 1988. For fluoridated industrial gases, Poland adopted 1995 as the baseline year.
The government document formulating the state environmental policy, including also as regards climate protection, is the National Environmental Policy for 2009-2012 and Its 2016 Otlook, adopted by the Sejm on 22 May 2009. The document sets out the objectives, priorities, challenges and directions and the main priorities of Poland’s ecological policy over the next four to eight years, including the national reduction target arising from the Kyoto Protocol.
A decisive factor of the energy policy in limiting any increase in emissions is the introduction of high-efficiency energy generation and transmission technologies, including the modernisation of existing technologies. A very important element of the strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to stimulate increased use of renewable energy sources in the energy sector. Another important element of energy policy is to increase the energy efficiency of the economy by, among other things, implementing Directive 2006/32/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 April 2006 on energy end-use efficiency and energy services and repealing Council Directive 93/76/EEC (Text with EEA relevance), as well as the diversification of the power generation system over a longer perspective by introducing nuclear energy.
Other policies and measures implemented in Poland in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions include, among other things:
- in transport, promotion and use of biofuels and promotion of environmentally neutral vehicles,
- in the construction industry, expansion and modification of technical and building regulations relating to heat insulation of buildings as regards the heat escape ratio through external walls, efficiency of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems and domestic hot water systems,
- in agriculture, improved use of fertilisers, including nitrogen-based fertilisers (a fertiliser advice system has been introduced, helping to determine doses of fertilisers precisely), rationalisation of energy management, including generation of energy from biomass waste or manure; and popularisation of small widespread power generation sources,
- in waste management, the National Waste Management Plan until 2010 promotes measures aimed at preventing and minimising the generation of waste, waste recycling, neutralisation and waste disposal that is safe to human life and to the environment.
According to the maps on the vulnerability, included in the IVth IPCC report drawn up in 2007, climate change in Romania by the end of this century will result in changes of the mean annual temperatures of 3-3.5ºC and a 10-20% decrease of the mean annual precipitations.
Since climate change means also the increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events, and as a consequence of severe floods and droughts experienced in recent years, climate change policy development will be very important for our country development.
The state and impacts
In terms of mitigation, the Kyoto Protocol comitment to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases during 2008-2012 will be over-met mainly due to the restructuring and decline of industry.
As a Member State, Romania has been implementing the EU-ETS scheme with a contribution representing about 47% from its national total greenhouse gas emissions.
Located at the half distance from pole and equator (crossed by the 45° parallel), Romania is characterized by a temperate continental climate. Between the south and the north of Romania there is a difference of about 3°C related to the annual average temperature at the same altitude.
In comparison with the annual global average temperature increase of 0.6 0Cin 1901-2000, in Romania the annual average increase was of 0.30 C only. During 1901-2006, the increase was of 0.50Ccompared to 0.750Cat the global level (1906-2005).
There were thermal differentiations between regions: more pronounced warming in south and east sides of the country (up to 0.8oC at Bucharest-Filaret station, Constanţa and Roman) and insignificant warming in the Intra-Carpathian regions, except Baia Mare, where the effect of the anthropogenic activity led to a 0.7oC increase.
The rainfall regime during 1901-2000, according to long series of observation data from 14 stations, has been characterized by a general tendency of decreasing of the annual amount of precipitations. As of 1960, the review of short series of data from more meteorological stations revealed an intensification of the drought phenomenon in the south of our country. In compliance with this observation, the maximum periods of lack of precipitations have increased in the south-west (winter) and west (summer) regions.
The increased warming during summer in the south east of the country asociated with a severe tendency towards a water deficit lead to the enhancement of the aridity of this region. In certain regions, during 1946-1999, it was observed an increase of the annual frequency of the very rainy days (highest 12% daily quantities) and of the extremely rainy days (highest 4% daily quantities). During 2000-2007 in Romania there were two extreme pluviometric opposite events (the drought from 2000 and 2007 and the floods from 2005 and 2006). The winter between 2006-2007 was the hottest winter ever occurred since observational measurements started in Romania, when pronounced deviations of maximum/minimum temperatures from the average multiannual regime persisted for long periods of time.
The longest drought periods in the 20thcentury had a climax reference year:1904, 1946, 1990. The most affected zone by the hydrological drought in the latest decades of the 20thcentury and the beginning of the 21stcentury was the south, with excessive aspects for Oltenia.
While there is difficult to assess clearly the impact of climate change on specific sectors, more scientists indicate the necessity to focus the research on climate change in order to improve understanding on the future scenarios and on economic, social and natural consequences of meteorological events including extremes.
The key drivers and pressures
For 2008-2012 the participation of installation in the implementation of the EU-ETS scheme is based on certificates acquired in compliance with the National Allocation Plan, document approved by the European Commission, and on open auction. This will determine the owner of the installations to refit and modernize urgently the existing technologies up to the European level, which requires important financial resources.
For the period mentioned above there are 229 participating installations which received free of charge 349 671 593 certificates.
Since the 8% reduction commitment for 2008-2012 will be met with certainty, no additional measures have been adopted excepting those required in terms of economic efficiency.
Usually, the GHG emissions trend reflects the main trend in the economic development of the country. According the last GHG Emissions Inventory submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in April 2009, in 2007 the GHG emissions have dropped with 44.83% in comparison with 1989, considered the base year for our country in the development of climate change policy.
As the international economy, our country is confronted with difficulties to sustain the economic growth and the current global economic and financial crisis poses the obligation to update the directions of development of our country to meet the EU targets included in the Lisbon Strategy, Sustainable Development Strategy and within the EU's climate and energy policy.
As it is mentioned in the COM(2009) 39 final Communication “Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen”, the current economic recession should be approached as an opportunity to address climate change and energy security through the transition to the low-carbon economy, securing growth and jobs and promoting sustainable development. The actions to combat the national crisis have to bring support to meet the climate targets.
The 2020 outlook
For the climate change policy 2020 is an important milestone and our country has to join the European effort to meet the ambitious targets set in the EU’s climate change policy and recover successfully from the economic and financial crisis.
The 2020 EU’s targets for the climate and energy policy are related to:
- cutting greenhouse gases by at least 20% of 1990 levels (30% if other developed countries commit to comparable cuts);
- increasing use of renewables (wind, solar, biomass, etc) to 20% of total energy production (currently ± 8.5%);
- cutting energy consumption by 20% of projected 2020 levels - by improving energy efficiency.
The planned contributions of the EU-ETS sector to meet the reduction target and the implementation rules of this scheme for 2013-2020, render difficult the participation of many existing installations.
Due to uncertainties related to climate change there is difficult to assess the 2020 outlook. Post-Kyoto reduction commitments of GHG emissions and the adaptation measures will shape up the 2020 climate change picture.
Existing and planned responses
The central environment authority enacted all required legislation to secure the enforcement of the UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and EU climate change policy.
By the Governmental Decision 658/2006, the inter-ministerial body- the National Commission on Climate Change has been updated with the aim to unitary apply the provisions of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol.
A substantive potential still exists to further reduce the carbon intensity of the Romanian economy and to decouple and lower the GHG emissions growth trend from the GDP growth trend.
The new climate change strategy will identify the measures to take advantage of this potential and orientate our development towards a low-carbon economy and energy efficiency.
The options include, among others, further fuel switching and energy efficiency improvements in the power sector as well as an increased share of renewable electricity production and further efficiency improvement in the end-use sectors of the economy.
In the non-energy sectors, methane emissions from agriculture and waste sectors can be further reduced, while the sink capacity can be increased with afforestations and reforestations.
Emissions from the transport sector will be reduced by implementing the European Community strategy to reduce CO2emissions from passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.
Finally, N2O emissions from the agriculture and industrial processes sectors can also be reducedby implementing various measures included within the EU agriculture policy.
Therefore, the objective of the Romanian Government is to continue implementing the existing and future EU policies and measures in order to reduce the carbon intensity of the Romanian economy and to stabilize the GHG emissions at current levels considering the potential economic growth.
Through consultations and workshops, the environmental authorities raised the awareness of economic operators on specific issues of the EU-ETS scheme.
Following the recent extreme meteorological events which resulted in severe damages, the Ministry of Environment with the assistance of other ministries has drawn up a first national adaptation plan to climate change.
To improve this plan, our country has to have a clear view on its vulnerability, impact and economic aspects related to the climate change impact. To take decisions on how best to adapt, we need a better understanding and reliable data on assessing the vulnerability and impact and best practices on adaptation.
In this sense, as soon as the European Clearing House Mechanism will be operative, Romania will develop a close cooperation and will improve its institutional capacity.
Russia has been a party to the UN Climate Convention since 1994 and became essential for the Kyoto Protocol to become legally binding in 2004 and ever since has been playing an important role in shaping the multilateral framework on climate change. For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it had to be ratified by Annex B Parties accounting for 55% of 1990 carbon emissions (UNFCCC 2010). The Russian Federation accounted for 16.4% of 1990 carbon emissions. Thus, with the United States indicating it will not ratify the protocol, and alone responsible for almost 34% of 1990 global carbon emissions, and the EU, Japan, and other smaller countries having already ratified it, Russian ratification was deciding.
With its sheer size of 17,075,400 square kilometers, Russia is by far the largest country in the world. It remains the world’s third largest emitter of green-houses gases after China and the USA, with one of the highest per capita energy-related CO2 emissions in the world,despite the severe economic downturn of the 1990s. Its per capita GHG emissions are almost four times higher than those of China. Russia is an energy superpower: it is the world’s largest producer of natural gas (20.9% of world production), the second largest producer of crude oil (12.3% of world production) and the world’s sixth largest producer of coal. It is the number one exporter of natural gas, accounting for more than 14% of the world’s gas export, and the second top oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. It is thus expected to remain an energy superpower in the years to come.
Russia GHG emission trends before and since Kyoto
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the economic downturn of its member-states brought up significant reduction of GHG emissions from this region. Russia’s carbon emissions bottomed out at 1.98 billion metric tons in 1998, compared to 1990 emissions of 3.32 billion. The coincidence of the collapse of the USSR’s heavy industry in early 1990s with the benchmark year in the Kyoto Protocol (1990) had a huge impact on interpretation of GHG emission trends of Russia and other transitional economies and might be misleading, as they mask the longer-term trends. According to estimations by CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center), the Oaks Ridge National Laboratory-based climate-change data and information analysis center of the U.S. Department of Energy, carbon emissions from the USSR grew from 10,881 thousand tons of carbon (KtC) in 1918 to 1,127,936 KtC in 1988. For comparison, carbon emissions from the United States grew during the same period from 455,368 KtC to 1,332,323 KtC, and China’s emissions from 5,743 KtC to 644,453 KtC. From the beginning of the 20th century until its collapse, the USSR was the secondlargest emitter of carbon in the world, experiencing extremely fast emission growth due to its industrial development, closely approaching the United States by the end of 1980s and by far surpassing China and all other countries. Just two years before the baseline year of the Kyoto Protocol (1990), the USSR per capita emissions had peaked at 3.96 tC. For comparison, China’s per capita emissions in 1988 were only 0.59 tC per capita. They have doubled since and reached 1.27 tC per capita in 2006 but are still much lower than in Russia. The USA’s emissions also peaked in 1988 at 5.37 tC per capita and slightly declined to 5.18 tC in 2006. Although since 1992 total fossil-fuel CO2 emissions from Russia have dropped 24.6% to 427 million tC, it is still the third largest emitting country in the world and the largest emitter of the republics comprising the former Soviet Union. Emissions from gas consumption represent the largest fraction (52.5%) of Russia's emissions and only recently have returned to the 1992 level. Emissions from coal consumption have dropped 30.1% since 1992 and presently account for 22.0% of Russia's emissions. Russia has the largest population of any eastern Europeancountry, near 142 million people in 2008. From a per capita standpoint, Russia's 2006 per capita emissions rate of 2.99 tC per person exceeds the global average and represents the fourth highest rate of the region behind Estonia (3.56), Kazakhstan (3.45), and the Czech Republic (3.05).
Russia’s carbon credits
Paradoxically, Russia and other countries of the former USSR have been also the main recepients of carbon credits under the mechanisms of Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol called for industrialized countries and economies in transition (Annex B countries1) to limit their emissions by 2012. On average, these countries have committed themselves to reduce carbon emissions by 4% from 1990 levels in the period 2008-2012, or 12% below the commitment period projections. The Protocol allows creation of different systems for emission reduction trading. Most countries have increased their emissions in the commitment period since 1990 and had to invest in significant mitigation efforts to keep growth of their carbon emission under control. However, as a result of decline in economic activity, carbon emissions in the transitional economies of Eastern Europe (EE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU) decreased by 34% between 1990 and 1997. Although the economic recovery has been accompanied by the growth of GHG emissions, Russia and other economies in transition will remain in over-compliance with Kyoto targets without any mitigation measures, as their carbon emissions are still lower than in 1990. The result is that Russia and the Eastern European countries are not subject to any real caps or incentives to reduce their emissions because their caps are calculated from a high base of the USSR peak emissions. Russia would easily meet emission reduction requirements based on the 1990 base date during the second commitment period from 2008 to 2012 despite the increase of its emissions in the past years. Currently Russian emissions are approximately 37% below 1990 levels. As Russia’s Kyoto target was to stabilize emissions at 1990-levels it has now accumulated a great surplus of carbon credits. In the Kyoto period, this surplus is expected to be 7.2 billion tons. These excess emission permits can be sold to other Annex B parties. The situation in which a party can sell emission permits virtually at no cost to itself is often referred to as “hot air”. Hot air is defined as the difference between projected baseline emissions and the Kyoto target, in the casewhere the former turn out to be smaller then the latter. Estimates for the overall amount of hot-air available in 2010 by different authors range from 100 to 500 MtC. The IEA (2010) estimates that 2010 emissions from Russia and other countries of the former USSR are about 745 MtC, while emissions of the USSR in 1990 were 1,036 MtC. In addition, the Kyoto Protocol also allows the former FSU countries to credit another 46 MtC for carbon sinks. Klepper and Petterson (2005) estimate that the amount of hot-air from the former USSR and Eastern Europe altogether around 410 MtC with Russia accounting for about 140 MtC. This estimate is quite close to other projections of the total “carbon bubble” of 344 MtC accumulated by the countries of the former USSR stern Europe, including 120-125 MtC as of Russia’s share.
Countries with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions must meet their targets primarily through national measures. As an additional means of meeting these targets, the Kyoto Protocol introduced three market-based mechanisms: a) emission trading, b) the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and c) Joint Implementation. Emission trading assumes a trade of emission allowances with each other. The clean development mechanism (CDM) is obtaining credits for emissions from projects in developing countries that also contribute to their sustainable development. The joint implementation (JI) is obtaining credits for emissions avoided by investment in projects in other Annex B countries.
According to various estimates, the total value for Russian carbon credits available for sale could be currently between $US 40 billion to $US 60 billion. In addition, Russia holds about 58% of the global JI (Joint Implementation) market with the total GHG reduction potential over 150 Mt CO2 (Yulkin 2007). The recent Copenhagen Accord has not addressed the mechanisms for the future of carbon trading after 2012. However, this question is likely to become crucial for development of any future global climate deal. Very large amounts of carbon credits accumulated by Russia (and Ukraine) create lots of anxiety and fears in the European Union and the U.S. that Russia would control the future of cap-and trade system. Russia is demanding that it be able to retain its massive surplus of emissions permits after they expire in 2012. Yet, critics argue that if Russia were to off-load these credits on international carbon markets, it would lead to a collapse in the price of carbon.
Russia’s carbon sequestration potential
The third reason why Russia is an extremely important country for any future global climate agreement is its very significant carbon sequestration capacity. More than 25% of the national domestic emissions is absorbed by Russia’s natural and managed ecosystems including forest, wetlands, rangelands, and arable lands. The Russian boreal forests represent the largest forested region on Earth with more than 55% of the world’s conifers, 21-22% of the worlds growing stock, and 11% of the world’s live forest biomass. Over 887 million hectares of forest and woodland remain, comprising 52% of the land area of Russia. Russian forests contain approximately 56.3 Pg (petagrams, or billion tonnes) of carbon in vegetation, and approximately 135.7 Pg C in soil organic matter. A considerable part of this carbon is locked in peat that is currently frozen within permafrost that occupies more than 60% of Russia’s territory. According to Goodale et al. (2002), Russia holds almost 50% of the Northern hemisphere’s terrestrial carbon. Russia’s natural forest resources play an integral role in global carbon cycling and climate change.
There is a danger that inadequate management of these resources (deforestation and adverse agricultural practices) and/or environmental processes associated with climate change (increasingly frequent draughts and forest fires, degradation of permafrost, wetlands, and soils) may turn these important carbon sinks to sources through a several positive feedbacks and would significantly accelerate the current warming trend. Estimates of the recent rates of deforestation are as high as 20,000 square kilometers annually, which is comparable to the annual rate of forest clearing in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. As the demand for timber resources continues to rise in the markets of China and South East Asia, Russian forests will be increasingly threatened, and along with them the distinct and unique biodiversity that makes these forests invaluable.
Forest fires also represent a great danger to the boreal carbon pool. According to estimates by Zhang et al. (2003) based on remote sensing data, direct carbon emissions from Russian forest fires during summer months range between 39.3 and 55.4 MtC, five to eight times that from the 2001 North American boreal forest fires and around 11–17% of that year’s Russian industrialcarbon emissions. Another remote sensing study conducted by Shukhinin et al. (2004) suggested that an average of 7.7 million hectare per year of fire occurred in Eastern Russia between 1996 and 2002. The satellite-based burned-area estimates area were two to five times greater than those contained in official government burned-area statistics. The data shows that there is significant inter-annual variability in area burned, ranging between a low of 1.5 million hectare in 1997 to a high of 12.1 million hectare in 2002. This study also suggests that more 65% of the area burned occurred in boreal forests.
The threats to the boreal carbon pool, however, are not limited to forest fires and logging. With the continuing rise of global temperatures, localized melting of permafrost as well as the drying of the boreal micro-climates is likely release CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, turning current carbon sinks into sources of carbon, thereby creating a positive feedback to global warming. Results from numerical models indicate that by the mid-21st century, near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere may shrink by 15–30%, leading to complete thawing of the frozen ground in the upper few meters, while elsewhere the depth of seasonal thawing may increase on average by 15–25%, and by 50% or more in the northernmost locations. Such changes would cause dramatic emission of greenhouse gases from the carbon-rich wetlands of Siberia.
From this very brief overview of Russia’s carbon pools, it is clear that the future of global climate would be largely influenced by Russia’s land-use policies and management practices.Careful monitoring of boreal ecosystems, land-use and landcover, protection of forest resources, forest fire prevention measures, further development of carbon sequestration policies and practices in forestry and agriculture, and continuous research and assessment of carbon sinks andsources in arctic and boreal ecosystems are essential measures of future climate change mitigation and would require significant international collaboration.
Key uncertainties about Russia’s climate policy
The Copenhagen Accord has failed to provide a foundation for a global legally binding treaty on climate change that would replace the Kyoto Protocol when its second commitment phase expires at the end of 2012. Since the Copenhagen summit simply extended all existing negotiating mandates, a lot of bilateral and multilateral activities are likely to unfold in the future climate negotiations. This section addresses a number of uncertainties about the future of Russia’s national climate policy in the context of broader uncertainties and contradictions in the future global climate order.
Future emissions and carbon credits and questions about 1990 baseline
Merits and flaws of the Kyoto Protocol cap-and-trade mechanism have recently been heavily debated, particularly in the United States in connection with the climate and energy bill currently debated by the Congress. The European Union EmissionTrading System, in operation since January 2005, is currently the most advanced scheme in which certain CO2-emitting industries of the EU member states must comply with individual “emissions allowances” assigned via a national allocation plan. If a firm emits less than its quota, it can sell surplus allowances; if it emits more than allowed, it has to buy allowances from other EU companies or may use credits from the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism or Joint Implementation schemes. As a result, the reduction targets of the Kyoto Protocol have given rise to a so-called “compliance market”. Critics are concerned that emissions trading schemes may fail to achieve the goal of actually reducing emission reductions.
By selecting 1990 as a base year, the Kyoto system has set extremely easy emission reduction targets for Russia and Ukraine, as 0% change from 1990 to 2012. Russian emissions have been growing since 1998, and exceeded the 1998 level by some 15% in 2006. By 2008, they had reached 2.192 billion metric tons of CO2-equivalent but were still 33.94% below emissions in 1990. If the growth trend of the past few years is maintained, emissions in 2017 would be 12-15% below the baseline, and emissions would return to the 1990 level sometime around 2025. Thus, any 2017 reduction target for Russia less stringent than 15% below the baseline allows the country to continue business-as-usual. Russia and other transitional economies that have accumulated large amounts of carbon offsets see this as compensation for the costs of transition, especially since additional emission reduction requirements could constrain their future economic growth. However, if their excess of carbon credits is traded with no restrictions, they could simply be purchased by other countries, allowing their targets to be met without anyone actually reducing their GHG emissions. There are also concerns that Russia’s fast economic growth may hinder future acceptance of emission reduction commitments as many Russian decision-makers fear that limiting the consumption of fossil fuels in order to cut emissions would reduce GDP growth.
Russia’s recent economic growth has been significantly outpacing the growth of emissions in the recent years. The GDP growth however, has been partly fuelled by the high oil and gas prices, which has no direct impact on Russian GHG emissions. There is also an increasing recognition by Russian government and companies that improving energy efficiency would have a positive overall impact on the economy and that GDP growth does not need to be necessarily associated with growing GHG emissions. “Russia's economy needs fundamental reform to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” President Dmitry Medvedev said at the international meeting in Brasilia in April 2010, saying the country could then meet its target of a 25% cut by 2020. While recently, the Russian government has repeatedly voiced its commitment to climate change mitigation, it is clear that the future of carbon credits and the baseline year for any new binding agreements would be extremely important in defining Russia’s position on emission reduction and carbon trade mechanisms in further international climate negotiations.
Domestic stand on climate policy
Finally, another very important factor that is likely to influence Russia’s role in the future climate negotiations is its domestic stand on the impacts of climate change. And there is large contradiction between international and domestic stands going back to the history of the USSR: Russia and its predecessor USSR have been actively involved in the UNFCCC negotiations process for many years. More recently, climate change has become an important part of Russia-European Union relations, yet domestically, there is very limited public awareness and population interest in climate change.
The internal debate in Russia is still limited and dominated by a few stakeholders; the private sector is not fully involved beyond pushing for Joint Implementation project approvals and the non-governmental sector has very a limited impact on the direction of the Russian climate policy. In the international climate negotiations sphere, Russia has historically had an impact on the direction of negotiations and has been helped by its wealth of Soviet-era experience going back to environmental treaties on long-range trans-boundary air pollutants (LRTAP) and UNFCCC negotiations. Russia is even more empowered now, since its large level of emissions and accumulated carbon credits gives it an important say over the future of any post-Kyoto climate architecture. Differently from most of other former USSR countries, Russia has always been in compliance with UNFCCC reporting obligations and submitted all four national communications on climate change on time. Involvement and visibility in the international climate negotiations has been long perceived as a question of the national pride and an important component of the status of superpower.
Domestically, however, Russia has experienced many challenges in this area, many of them also being inherited from the USSR. These challenges include:
a) Limited public awareness and interest of Russia’s population in climate change policies;
b) Long-standing competition between agencies for leadership control and funding;
c) Limited participation of stakeholders in climate policy formulation.
Climate change is not regarded as an acute environmental problem by Russia’s general public. Recent opinion polls indicate that a significant percentage of the Russian public does not see climate change as a very important issue and does not approve of spending taxpayers’ money on climate change mitigation. A Gullap survey conducted a year ago suggests that 85% of Russians are aware of climate change (compared to 97% of Americansns and 62% of Chinese), but only 39% perceive it as a serious personal threat (compared to 63% and 21% respectively in the U.S. and China).
Russia’s governmental institutional structures have not made public involvement much easier. Although an Inter-Agency Commission has existed in one form or another since 1994, with a mandate to coordinate on matters of climate in an interdisciplinary fashion, policy making has been hampered by on-going and acrimonious competition within the government for leadership of the issue. The Commission is not a State Committee, and therefore its recommendations do not carry the force of law. The current dominant government agency is Russian Hydrometeorological Service. The Inter-Agency Commission has traditionally been chaired by the head of RosHydromet. Another entity involved in climate change policy in the past was the Ministry of Environmental Protection inherited by Russia from the USSR. In the 1990s, however, it was first lowered to a status of a state committee and later dismantled with its functions being transferred to the Ministry of Natural Resources. Several years later, the latter was reorganized and renamed the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology. The Centre for Preparation and Implementation of International Projects on Technical Assistance is another quasi-independent entity, established as an entity of the Environmental Protection Agency as an institute empowered to work with international donors was later moved under supervision of the Ministry of Natural Resources, but is also answering to the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance. Another government force in climate policy is the Parliament Committee on Ecology. Complexity and numerous reorganizations of this institutional network have inevitably caused competition for resources and leadership control.
Until recently, Russian corporations have been showing no or very little interest in climate change issues, but the growing opportunities for carbon trading and Joint Implementation projects have recently caused much stronger involvement of corporate sector in climate discussion. Center Telecom, Federal Grid Company of Unified Energy System, Gazprom, Irkutskenergo, Novatek and Tatneft were the Russian corporations leading efforts to understand and tackle climate change, according to this year’s inaugural Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) Russia 50 report. The CDP is a global carbon reporting initiative of 534 institutional investors with approximately RUB 1,900 trillion of assets under management (US$ 64 trillion). Investors worldwide work with CDP and factor climate change information into their investment decisions and asset allocations. In 2009, for the first time, CDP sent its request for information to Russia’s top 50 companies based on the Russian Trading System stock exchange (RTS 50). Six companies answered the CDP questions around greenhouse gas emissions and climate change strategy, and an additional three companies provided other information. CDP 2009 showed that Russian companies have started to investigate and address carbon issues: three of the responding companies provided detailed information on direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from their operations, and four companies reported having a GHG emissions or energy reduction plan in place. Risks from climate change were identified by 50% of the participating companies, while two thirds see opportunities arising from climate change. This recent trend of the growing interest in the corporate world suggests one more time that the issue of carbon credits would be critical for retaining Russia’s commitment to the post-Kyoto agreement.
The effects of global warming on the territory of Serbia are evident from a long series of meteorological data. Annual temperatures and annual precipitation for the period 1888-2008, measured at the Belgrade Meteorological Observatory, can be used for illustration. Values for each year are calculated as normalised departures from the 1961-1990 average.
Warmer years dominated in the post-1990 period and most of them had a deficit of precipitation. From 1990, the extremes of temperature were higher than average, with the year 2000 being the warmest. Other analyses indicate that the trend of increasing air temperature in Serbia since 1990 is several times higher than in the previous period. Summer 2008 was the 19th successive summer that was warmer than normal.
Droughts have been frequent since 1990, and their intensity and duration have also increased. This has had a great impact on many activities, primarily the production of food and energy, human health, biodiversity, and water supply. Serbia is located in a region of the world considered vulnerable to climate change (IPCC, 2007).
Serbia has ratified the Kyoto Protocol, and the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning is the focal point to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol. The Climate Change Unit (CCU) was established within the Ministry in 2008. This unit is responsible for the initiation and coordination of climate change-related activities.
The first National Communication is in preparation, and should be finalised by the end of 2010. In the meantime, and taking into account the current negotiation process under the UNFCCC, Serbia has started to prepare a greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, projections until 2020, and identification of potential mitigation activities, using its own financial resources.
A new legal framework for environmental protection was introduced in 2004 by the Law on Environmental Protection, the Law on Strategic Environmental Assessment, the Law on Environmental Impact Assessment and the Law on Integrated Prevention and Pollution Control. In order to improve the state of the environment, the Republic introduced a new legal framework for environmental protection harmonised with the EU acquis. Thirteen new laws in the field of the environment, such as the Law on Air Quality, the Law on Waste Management and the Law on Packaging and Packaging Waste, were adopted by the Serbian Parliament in May 2009. Taking into account the provisions of EU Directives and Decisions transposed into these laws, it is expected that their implementation will affect future GHG emission reductions.
The state and impacts
The GHG emissions presented in the National Inventory Report of the Slovak Republic, 2010 1, were updated and converted using the latest available methods, national conditions and data published by the Slovak Statistical Office. Total GHG emissions were 48 831.11 Gg in 2008 (without LULUCF). This represents a reduction of 33.92 % in comparison with the reference year 1990. In comparison with 2007, the emissions increased by 2.2 %. Figure 1 shows the current trend in GHG emissions compared with the 8 % Kyoto target.
In the period 1990–2008, the total greenhouse gas emissions in the Slovak Republic did not exceed the 1990 level.
In 2008, the consumption of brown coal was only 6% of the consumption in 1990, light fuel oil consumption decreased by 92% and heavy fuel oil by 72% compared to 1990. An example of the Slovak Republic is as follows: the production of liquid steel increased by 27.7% from 1990 to 2005, while the consumption of coal energy production decreased by 2.3%. Carbon intensity per metric ton of liquid steel has been improved by 5.2% during the same period. There is a lot of further technological and innovation steps made by individual operators to increase production intensity and to meet strict environmental requirements.
The key drivers and pressures
Comparison of the trend in GDP growth and the trend in aggregated GHG emissions shows that the Slovak Republic is one of the few countries where GDP growth does not follow the trend of GHG emissions, which has been stable since 1997. This shows that decoupling is feasible. But, in international terms, the level of GHG emissions per inhabitant still remains high.
Carbon intensity defined as CO2 emissions per GDP is a similar indicator. The carbon intensity has reduced fourfold since 1994. This trend was maintained even during the period of high economic growth and it peaked on the decreased share of high energy-intensive industry in GDP generation and increased share of services.
According to statistical information from the Ministry of Economy, the energy industry reached a 2.7 % share of the total GDP of the Slovak Republic in 2008. Energy intensity is still 1.8 times higher than the average in EU15, despite its continual decrease. The reason for this is the adversely high share of energy-intensive industry in the GDP. This trend can be seen also in the indicator comparing the primary consumption of energy resources (which is approximately at the same level as 1994) with the GDP growth. Energy intensity is expressed in PJ/billion euro.
The 2020 outlook
The Slovak Republic regularly updates and provides emission projection scenarios for three possible scenarios until 2020. The energy and industry projections are modelled by the programme MESSAGE. Emission scenarios are developed according to international guidelines. According to the Kyoto Protocol, the Slovak Republic is committed to reduce GHG emissions by 8 % during the period 2008–12 related to the base year (1990) level. Following the UNFCCC guidelines the Slovak Republic has prepared emission projections for all three scenarios: WM: with measures, WOM: without measures, WAM: with additional measures.
Possible impacts of the EU ETS (the price of allowances) and an increasing share of renewable energy resources in the energy balance of the Slovak Republic have been investigated by modelling with existing measures (WM) and with additional measures (WAM) scenarios. There is an urgent need to diversify the importation of primary energy sources and to decrease our dependency on imports by using a higher share of domestic renewable energy sources (RES), namely by biomass in the Slovak Republic 1. The quantitative information are available in the document Strategy for higher use of renewable energy resources in the Slovak Republic.
Existing and planned responses
The economic measures and restructuring of industry including the energy sector played the most important role in achieving current decoupling of GHG emissions in the Slovak Republic. The role of national environmental legislation for air quality protection which was adopted in the Slovak Republic in 1991 could be important, if not decisive.
The basic legal framework for climate change was gradually expanded in 2008 by other new as well as existing revised legal instruments, in particular Directive 2004/101/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2003/87/EC, expanding the emission trading scheme, which will also cover aviation since 2012. At the national level transposed to the Act 117/2007 Coll. changing and amending Act 572/2004 Coll. on emission trading and on the change and the amendment of certain acts, as amended by Act 733/2004 Coll. The Act amends several provisions of the Act 572/2004 Coll. regarding terms and definitions, rights and obligations of the Ministry of Environment, the administrator of the Registry and traders with emission allowances. In relation to the transposition of Directive 2004/101/EC, the act defines conditions for the use of certified emission reduction (CER) and emission reduction units (ERU) within the trading scheme.
As a follow-up to its commitment, the European Commission put forward in January 2008 the climate change and energy package 1 including new legislative measures covering the main sectors of the EU economy. The Climate and Energy Package was officially approved in 2009 as a complex framework for compliance with the ambitious goals of the European Union by 2020. A parallel process of the transposition of approved standards into national legislation is progressing, as well as the development of new legislative instruments at the level of the European Commission. The Slovak Government established in their Resolution No 190/2008, 26 March 2008, the Climate-Energy Package Committee at state-secretary-level of ministries of the environment, transport, finance, economy, regional development, agriculture and foreign affairs to implement policies and measures into national circumstances. In November 2009, the Committee will present their final report of planned policies and measures inside the sectors, with their impact on national emission and energy saving level up to 2020 2, to the Slovak Government.
Slovenia lies in the temperate geographical zone, which is characterised by great variability of climate and weather conditions. Slovenia’s territory is an interweaving of the effects of the Mediterranean, mountain and continental climate, and every year witnesses extreme weather events. Temperature measurements indicate climate change as has been observed elsewhere in Europe. The average temperature is rising, and the increase has been most noticeable over the last 20 years. Atmospheric warming is not the only consequence of climate change; it also brings changes in air currents, weather patterns, the distribution and quantity of precipitation and the frequency and strength of hazardous weather phenomena. The damage caused in Slovenia by exceptional weather and climate phenomena is rising steeply, in part because of the increasingly costly infrastructure and construction in areas previously not intensively exploited owing to the great exposure to natural forces.
Deviations from the normal distribution of precipitation through the year can cause drought or floods. In recent years Slovenia has frequently witnessed severe summer droughts, when a summer lack of precipitation has been accompanied by high air temperatures and unusual amounts of sunny weather. On the other hand damage is also caused by flooding. Slovenia is increasingly seeing green winters, with dwindling quantities of fresh snowfall in the lowlands. Plants are responding to the warmer atmosphere with extended growing seasons and are therefore more vulnerable to spring freezes.
Given their low-lying position, both glaciers in Slovenia – the Triglav glacier and the glacier below Mt. Skuta – are sensitive to climate change. With continued growth in atmospheric temperatures their transformation from glaciers to snowfields is expected.
In terms of number of storms, Slovenia is one of the top countries of Europe. Each year there are several severe storms which cause major damage, mostly from hail, strong gusts of wind and downpours. Strong short-lived downpours or abundant several-day rainfall can cause flooding, since the predominantly torrential character of watercourses means they rise very quickly. Saturation of the terrain can trigger landslides. In the future it is anticipated that the snowmelt will start earlier, bringing high river flows in the early spring. This is already causing a minimal rise in the sea level, which in the future will affect low-lying coastal areas, such as saltpans.
For the period up to the end of the 21st century, with the current trend of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and assuming the middle scenario will play out (IPPC, 2007), Slovenia can expect an increase in temperatures of between 3 and 3.5 °C, with summers heating up by 4 to 4.5 °C. On the annual level, the amount of precipitation should fall by approximately 10 %. This means summers will be significantly drier, by 15-20 %, while in winter we can even expect an increase in the amount of precipitation of up to 10 %. For this reason, green winters will be more common in lowland areas, and we can also expect more heat waves with stronger downpours and storms (Bergant, 2009). Another source (MKGP, 2008) states that in the period from 2001-2030 air temperatures are expected to rise by 0.5 to 2.5 °C, from 2031 to 2060 by 1 to 3.5 °C and from 2061 to 2090 by 1.5 to 6.5 °C. Predictions for the change to the annual level of precipitation range from +10 % to –30 %. There is even greater uncertainty surrounding the future quantity and distribution of precipitation by season. Some predictions point to a reduction in summer precipitation of up to 20 % (MKGP, 2008).
With the rapid population growth and excessive consumption of natural resources, society is becoming increasingly sensitive to climate change. The fact is that GHG emissions are growing, mainly from the energy and transport sectors. The growth in emissions is largely a consequence of economic growth both in Slovenia and the wider region, a consequence of which is the divergence between the economic and environmental components of development. Pronounced growth of emissions from transit traffic has been observed especially since the Slovenia’s entry into the EU. By signing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Slovenia joined the efforts to reduce the impact of human activity on the environment, and by signing the Kyoto Protocol it is committed to reduce its emissions by 8 % relative to 1986 in the first target period of 2008–2012. In order to achieve the Kyoto Protocol targets, Slovenia will use a system of trading in rights to GHG emissions covering around 44 % of all emissions, while it will also claim GHG sinks and flexible Kyoto mechanisms. According to projections, Slovenia’s GHG emissions will fall between 2008 and 2012, but will still be above the target value of the Kyoto Protocol. Although the impact of the economic crisis on GHG emissions is unknown, based on past trends, even with the claiming of carbon sinks, the Kyoto target will not be met by Slovenia.
The key drivers and pressures
The rapid population growth and excessive use of natural resources is increasing sensitivity to climate variability. The fact is that GHG emissions are rising in Slovenia. The biggest emmissions are from energy and transport sector. Growth in emissions is mainly due to economic development.
In 2005 a total of 51 % of Slovenia’s inhabitants lived in urban areas, which is much less than the European average of 72 % (IMAD, 2009). The population is moving from the bigger cities to surrounding areas, increasing pressure on farmland and on the existing municipal and social infrastructure. Daily mobility is also increasing.
In the economic sphere, the period of the last ten years has been marked by a relatively slow restructuring towards the strengthening and growth of services, with a rapid decline in the importance of farming and a gentle decline in the share of industry. Compared to the rest of the EU, Slovenia has a relatively high proportion of manufacturing industry, and the structure of the economy points to above-average shares of energy-intensive industrial processes in the metallurgical, non-metallurgical, and paper industries. These are sectors that rank among the worst in terms of the intensity of atmospheric emissions per unit of production (IMAD, 2009).
Since 1999 Slovenia’s ecological footprint has grown steadily. The major contributing factor is energy sector. According to data from the Global Footprint Network (GFN), in 2006 Slovenia’s footprint amounted to 3.9 gha /person, slightly below that of Europe – 4.5 gha/person. Since 1999, Slovenia has been in an environmental deficit, amounting in 2006 to –1.5 gha/person (GFN, 2009).
Having signed the Kyoto Protocol, under which Slovenia is committed to an 8 % reduction of GHG emissions relative to 1986, in the period 2008–2012 the country will have to reduce total emissions to an annual level of 18,726 kt CO2 equivalent. In total combined GHG emissions in 2007, the major component was CO2 – 82 %. This was followed by methane, 10.5 %, mainly from farm waste; and N2O, 6.4 %, from farming and transport. Emissions of F-gases – HFC, PFC and SF6 – are contribute very little, 1.1 %, although owing to their high greenhouse effect, their contribution to atmospheric warming is not negligible. Despite the fact that relative to the base year, total GHG emissions have not changed much, in 2007 there was a significant change to their distribution by sector. The major contribution to total GHG emissions is from the energy sector, 32 % in 2007, followed by transport, 26 % in 2007. Increasing road traffic has led to total GHG emissions over the last two years increasing by more than a percentage point annually, cancelling out reduction efforts in all other sectors. The growth of emissions from transport is a consequence particularly of economic growth both in Slovenia and across the region. A marked reduction in emissions relative to the base year, from 22 % to 11 % in 2007, has been noted in the fuel consumption sector in industry and construction. No such major changes have been recorded in other sectors. Emissions from agriculture were slightly lower owing to a reduction in the number of cattle, the result of intensification of animal husbandry. Relative to the base year, emissions from waste management rose by 21 %, something contributed solely by emissions from municipal landfills. In this time wastewater emissions have fallen (PS03).
Slovenia has a relatively large amount of forest, covering 58.5% of its territory, (GZ04), which could be exploited as a sink, thereby reducing GHG emissions. According to recent estimates, around 5,000 ha of land is being overgrowing with forests each year in Slovenia. The latest census of forest resources for 2005 also contains the estimated accumulation of carbon in forests. According to data from this, the average annual accumulation of CO2 in forests – not taking annual felling into account – in the period 1990-2005 was as much as 9,867 kt CO2 equivalent a year, representing almost 50 % of annual emissions of CO2. Slovenia’s permitted quota of sinks is 1,320 kt CO2 equivalent (OP TGP-1, 2009).
In the energy sector, in 2007, the main contribution to GHG emissions was the consumption of energy, with a share of 81 %, and highest within this were heat and power generation and transport. For the period 2000–2007, owing to the generation of heat and power, emissions increased by almost 20 % – average annual growth 2.6 % – and in 2007 growth amounted to 3.3 % (EN01).
After falling in 2007, energy end-use rose markedly in 2008. The increase resulted from growth in transport and broad consumption, while it fell in industry. The biggest share in energy end-use was held by transport, followed by industry, households and other consumption (EN10).
Slovenia has in comparison with the EU high energy intensity, which can be attributed to the low GDP per capita in the EU average, a high share of industry in GDP and the impact of transit traffic. In 2008 the energy-intensity of total energy consumption increased again after six years of reduction, representing a departure from the set goals. A comparison of intensity in 2007, calculated from gross domestic product (GDP) using purchasing power parity, shows that the intensity of the Slovenian economy is approximately 12 % higher than for the EU-25 as a whole (EN11).
In 2008 total energy consumption increased by significantly more than the average for the period 1992-2008. The greatest share was taken by liquid fuels, followed by solid fuels, nuclear energy, gas fuels and renewable energy sources. In 2008 there were increased shares of liquid fuels, nuclear energy and renewable energy sources. Growth of total energy consumption in Slovenia is higher than in EU-15 (EN16).
The proportion of renewable sources in total energy consumption in 2008 increased, amounting to 10.9 %, which is still 1.1 percentage points lower than the national target that should be reached by 2010. A total of 55 % of all renewable energy is used for heating, and the remainder for electricity generation. Biomass predominates, accounting for 55 % of all consumption of renewable energy sources, while hydro energy accounts for 41 % (EN18).
In 2008, electricity generation from renewables was markedly higher than the previous year owing to higher water levels in rivers and the start of co-incineration of wood biomass in large thermal power facilities. Nevertheless Slovenia attained a proportion that was 13 % lower than the target (EN19).
By 2007 GHG emissions from transport had increased in Slovenia by 165 % relative to 1986, the biggest rise being in road transport, 174 %. The increase in emissions stems from the growth in the number of vehicles and transit traffic – especially after 2004, when Slovenia joined the EU (PR09).
The volume of tonne-kilometres completed by Slovenian transporters increased by as much as 52 % from 2004 to 2007. The number of goods vehicle crossings of the border with Hungary in the same period rose by 112 % (PR02). Introducing biofuels in Slovenia and the objectives in this area are lagging behind the reference values given in the EU directive promoting the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport, which amount to 2 % by the end of 2005 and 5.75 % by the end of 2010. Slovenia’s lag is largely due to the limited scope for producing biofuels in the country (PR13).
The 2020 outlook
GHG emission projections for 2020 indicate a decrease, despite the projected economic growth. It seems that the Kyoto goal for Slovenia in 2012 will not be reached.
GHG projections are related to two possible scenarios of reduction - the first with some measures and the second scenario with additional ones. The second envisages a greater intensity of implementing measures in broad consumption and industry and increased financing amounting to €100 million. Since higher energy efficiency will only affect industry, the projections in broad consumption will only be impacted by greater intensity of implementing measures – additional funds for energy efficiency measures in buildings and additional funds for awarding favourable loans for energy efficiency and renewable energy measures (OP TGP-1, 2009).
Base GHG emissions for Slovenia amount to 20,354 kt CO2 equivalent. A reduction of 8 % means that in the period 2008–2012 Slovenia would have to achieve average annual emissions of 18,726 kt CO2 equiv. In achieving the Kyoto target, in accordance with resolution 11/CP.7 of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Slovenia can use CO2 sinks tied to increased wood biomass in forests in the amount of 1.32 Tg CO2 equiv. It follows from this that in the Kyoto period Slovenia must reduce average annual emissions to 20,046 kt CO2 equivalent (OP TGP-1, 2009).
Projections of GHG emissions using the scenario with measures for the period 2008–2012 indicate a reduction in emissions to the value of 21,112 kt CO2 equiv. or, with additional measures, 21,083 kt CO2 equiv. both of which are above the target value of 18,726 kt CO2 equiv. Even claiming the permitted sinks– the average permitted sinks for the period 2008–2012 amount to 1,320 kt CO2 equiv. – the Kyoto target will not be met (Poročilo ETS, 2009si). For this reason, based on both projections and permitted sinks, Slovenia will not fulfil its Kyoto obligations. The difference in emissions will have to be compensated by using flexible Kyoto mechanisms. At the envisaged price of 15 €/t CO2, purchasing the necessary rights to emit GHGs in the period 2008–2012, based on projections that still do not include the effects of the economic crisis on emissions, Slovenia will need to spend a little less than €80 million (OP TGP-1, 2009).
The chief sources of GHG emissions are energy supply and transport. In 2008 emissions from these two sectors should, together, remain the same – a reduction of emissions from heat and power generation as a result of lower quotas in the EU-ETS system, balanced by an increase in emissions from transport due to a major growth in sales of diesel fuel, largely to transit traffic. After 2008, emissions from generation should hardly change, mainly due to the set quotas for the period 2008-2012. Emissions from transport should gradually fall, in part due to the economic crisis and in part to the construction of railway infrastructure and an increase in public passenger transport. After 2012, owing to the reduced quotas in the EU-ETS system, a reduction in GHG emissions from energy supply is envisaged, and an increase in emissions from transport. The latter should be ascribed to increased transport, as a result of the enlargement of the EU to include the countries of the western Balkans. After a slight rise in the period 2008-2012, partly from industrial emissions not included in EU-ETS, emissions from industry will decline after 2012 markedly. This also applies to broad consumption, especially after 2009. A reduction will be the consequence of implementing measures in buildings and increasing the share of renewable energy sources in heat production. In agriculture, owing to the growing numbers of animals, emissions will show a modest increase, while, owing to reduced quantities of biodegradable waste being disposed of, emissions from waste will fall. (OP TGP-1, 2009)
In 2010 GHG emissions compared to 2007 should be lower from energy supply, -8 %; industry, -11 %; and waste -1 %; but higher in transport, +12 %; other areas, +34 % in the scenario with some measures and +33 % in the scenario with additional measures; and +2 % from agriculture. The scenario for 2020 points to a similar situation – compared to 2007, emissions will be lower in energy supply, -24 %; industry, -22 %; and -16 % from waste; but higher from transport, +24 %; from other areas, +18 % or +14 % depending on the scenario; and +4 % from agriculture (OP TGP-1, 2009).
Emissions from those bound by the EU-ETS system for the period 2008-2012 have been determined through the amount of rights to GHG emissions under the National Plan for Allocating Emission Coupons for 2008-2012. The average annual quantity of rights allocated to existing facilities in this period amounts to 8,168 kt CO2, while for new entries 131 kt CO2 of rights have been reserved. In total, emissions from EU-ETS sources amount to 8,299 kt CO2 equivalent. Based on projections, actual emissions from EU-ETS sources in 2008-2012 have been forecast at 9,514 kt CO2 equivalent. The difference or direct effect of EU-ETS equates to 1,215 kt CO2 equivalent.
After 2012, the EU-ETS scheme should include all existing sources from the period 2008-2012 plus additional sources involved in aluminium production. In order to determine emission rights after 2012, the annual quantity of rights in the period 2008-2012 was reduced each year by 1.74 %, using 2010 as the base year. Taking into account that emissions from sources in EU-ETS with allocated rights to GHG emissions are already determined, we may calculate from the total target a target for the period 2008-2012 for sources of emissions that are not included in EU-ETS. Fulfilment of the Kyoto obligations depends entirely on these sources. Taking into account sinks for fulfilling the Kyoto obligations, the average annual emissions from other sources in the period 2008-2012 would have to be lower than or equal to 11,747 kt CO2 equivalent.
Existing and planned responses
To achieve the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, Slovenia will use the system for trading GHG emissions, which cover about 44% of all emissions, enforce GHG emission sinks and the Kyoto flexible mechanisms.
In 2002 Slovenia ratified the Kyoto Protocol and assumed the obligation to reduce GHG emissions in the period 2008-2012 on average by 8 % relative to the agreed emissions in 1986. To fulfil the obligations, Slovenia adopted measures and key instruments, which are defined in detail in the Operational Programme to Reduce GHG Emissions by 2012 (OP TGP-1, 2009). With the adoption of European legislation as part of the EU Climate-Energy Package, the importance of measures adopted within the operational programme is further enhanced, since consistent implementation of the planned measures to fulfil the Kyoto Protocol is an essential condition for fulfilment of the obligations of the Climate Energy Package legislation. In its essence, OP TGP-1 (2009) deals with the set of measures up until 2012, and their effect in reducing GHG emissions should also be clear in the period 2013-2020 (OP TGP-1, 2009).
The operational programme highlights, as urgently needed measures in the area of promoting high-efficiency, combined heat and power generation, use of renewable energy sources including a system of guaranteed purchase prices and financial incentives, co-natural development of transport by notifying consumers of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, taxing motor vehicles in respect of CO2 emissions, etc., co-natural waste management and measures tied to Slovenian Government measures to mitigate the consequences of the economic crisis – promoting efficient energy use in broad consumption, especially in the public sector and industry, through CO2 levies, GHG emission trading, etc. In particular, the OP TGP-1 stresses the exploitation of permitted quantities of sinks. If Slovenia is unable to justify the sinks, this would mean an additional shortfall in achieving the Kyoto targets amounting to 1,320 kt CO2 annually, and the urgent need to ensure additional funds for purchasing rights to GHG emissions amounting to €99 million (OP TGP-1, 2009).
By signing the Climate-Energy Package, Slovenia is committed to achieving the following goals:
- 9 % saving of end-use energy by 2016 relative to previous consumption (implementation of Directive 32/2006/EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services);
- increasing the proportion of electricity generated from renewable energy sources to 33.6 % of energy consumption by 2010 (Resolution on the National Energy Programme, ReNEP 2004 and Directive 2001/77/EC;
- increasing the share of biofuels in accordance with the aims of Directive 2003/30/EC on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport. The current Slovenian target is defined by the Decree on promoting the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport (Uredba o pospeševanju uporabe biogoriv in drugih obnovljivih goriv v prometu), which sets out the proportion of the annual quantity of biofuels placed on the market to power motor vehicles, with the target raising it by 1 percentage point each year until 2010 and then by 0.5 percentage points annually up to 2015, when the target value is 7.5 % of the entire annual quantity of fuel placed on the market to power motor vehicles. Increases in GHG emissions will need to be limited to a maximum of 4 % by 2020 relative to 2005 in sectors that are not in the EU–ETS – in other words for transport, broad consumption, waste, agriculture and small industrial plants. Emissions from plants that are in the ETS are exempted from the obligations of Member States, and their reduction is governed by the ETS on the EU level. The number is not yet final and will be adjusted in the light of changes to the selection of plants included in the ETS.
- 25 % of renewable energy sources in energy end-use by 2020;
- at least a 10 % of energy products from renewable energy sources in the consumption of energy by motor vehicles (OP TGP-1, 2009).
In order to implement the domestic measures under OP TGP-1, in the period 2009-2012 the Slovenian Government will provide public funds amounting to €604.7 million. For Slovenia to fulfil its Kyoto Protocol obligations, in addition to financing the domestic measures defined in this document, in the period up to 2012 at least a further €80 million will be needed to purchase rights to GHG emissions amounting to 1.07 Mt CO2 equivalent a year, which, in the event of exceeding this, will have to be purchased on the international market. In order to ensure the funds, Slovenia envisages the introduction of an environmental tax on motor fuels of up to EUR 0.02/l.
To achieve the Kyoto Protocol targets Slovenia will primarily use a system of trading in rights to GHG emissions, covering approximately 44 % of all emissions, sinks and Kyoto flexible mechanisms.
Kyoto flexible mechanisms have an influence chiefly on the electricity and heat generation sector, energy use in industry and construction and on industrial processes. Slovenia will need to make use of them, since the latest projections of emissions for the period 2008-2012 point to an excess of 1.10 Mt CO2 equivalent annually. Using Kyoto flexible mechanisms envisages the acquisition of emission coupons in one of the ways described below:
- through the publication of a public call for applications for the sale of AAU (Assigned Amount Units) units through implementation of a joint investment project and, under an appropriate procedure as set out in the draft law, to conclude a contract on their purchase with the manager of the joint investment;
- by purchasing assigned amount units (AAU) from a Kyoto Protocol party selling such units;
- by purchasing ERU, CER or emission coupons (EUA) on the market (OP TGP-1, 2009).
Given the possibility of using forest sinks, Slovenia wishes in future to manage forests sustainably and exploit CO2 sinks. In accordance with the Marrakech Agreement, it can use forest sinks in the amount of 1,320 kt CO2 equivalent. The recent accumulation of wood stocks is the result of long-term concerted work in the forestry profession based on sustainability, a co-natural and multi-purpose approach, which is also the primary goal of the Resolution on the National Forestry Programme (ReNGP, 2007). Forest management, regardless of ownership, is steered by the Slovenian Forest Service. The greatest possible felling is determined in forest management plans covering a 10 year period – the last one ran 2001-2010. Under these plans, the highest possible felling is 4,050,000 m3/year, but this is being raised. Accumulation of carbon in forests, a result of the planned increase in wood stocks, is a key element in claiming carbon sinks under the Kyoto Protocol. In order to show the increase in wood stocks, Slovenia will use the third level of difficulty (Tier 3). With this intention, a national inventory of the state of forests was carried out in 2007, and this must be repeated in 2012. Current data indicate that forests are actually accumulating three to four times more CO2 than Slovenia can exploit in achieving its Kyoto protocol obligations under resolution 11/CP.7, 1.32 Mt CO2. Accumulation of CO2 in forests is just a temporary solution, since the stocks of carbon in forests cannot be increased ad infinitum. Upon balancing the flow of CO2 into and out of forests, over the longer term forests could undergo a shift and become a source of CO2 (OP TGP-1, 2009).
The state and impacts
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report future climate change could critically undermine efforts for sustainable development throughout the world and especially in the Mediterranean Basin. Turkey is located in the Eastern Mediterranean basin where countries are in the highest risk group.
Climate change had an additional impact on our existing problems of desertification and water scarcity. Turkey has exceptionally rich wetlands and biological diversity which are highly vulnerable to climate change.
Summer temperatures (mean and maximum) over the past five decades have increased in the western provinces, while winter temperatures have shown a decrease mainly along the coast.
Water stress is already apparent in many parts of Turkey, and is exacerbated by sharply rising demand in many sectors, particularly agriculture. Central Turkey, in particular, is at present facing a catastrophic drought following the hottest summer (2007) in living memory. The capital Ankara is presently experiencing water shortages, and water restrictions have been put in place.
For example, the vast Konya Plain, which covers an area twice the size of Wales and stretches from below Ankara to the Mediterranean, was once known as Turkey’s wheat house After a virtually dry summer and impact of climate change over the past decade, dozens of lakes have dried up, with severe consequences for local communities and wildlife.
Due to the steady population growth and intensive industrialisation, the total GHG emissions of Turkey increased steadily in the period 1990 and 2007. In 2007, the main GHG in Turkey was carbon dioxide (CO2), accounting for 81.7 per cent of total GHG emissions expressed in CO2-eq, followed by methane - 14.6 per cent, and nitrous oxide N2O - 2.6 per cent. The energy sector accounted for 77.4 per cent of the total GHG emissions, followed by waste - 8.5 per cent, agriculture - 7.1 per cent, and industrial processes - 7.0 per cent. The emissions rose by 119,1% between the years 1990 and 2007, from 170.1 to 372.6 million tonnes. Figure 1 shows trends of sectoral GHG emissions for years 1990-2007.
The key drivers and pressures
Following the Decision 26/CP.7 adopted at the 7. Conference of Parties (COP.7) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), held in Marrakesh in 2001 which “recognized the special conditions of Turkey accepted that Turkey remains an Annex I
Party of the UNFCCC, in a position that is different to that of other Annex I countries and Turkey will be removed from the Annex II”, Turkey has become a party to UNFCCC on May 24, 2004. Turkey became a party to the Protocol as of 26 August 2009.
Turkey was neither an industrialized country nor was in the group of countries undergoing the process of transition to a market economy in 1992 and has negligible Historical Responsibility (i.e. less than 1%).
Compared to Annex-I Parties of the UNFCCC Turkey has: the lowest per capita emission figures, lower cumulative emission figures (see figure 2 and 3), the lowest per capita primary energy consumption and the lowest Human Development Index rank. Turkey has rapidly growing economy and energy demand, increasing emission trends, including the per capita emissions due to economic and population growth. Although Turkey does not have any quantitative reduction commitment a number of sectoral policies on mitigation have been launched.
Turkey’s First National Communication provides a set of projections of the future levels of GHG emissions, ‘with measures’ scenario and a ‘without measures’ scenario, based on model calculations including as shown in the Figure. Due to the increased electricity demand as a result of economic and population in the period 2005 – 2020 scenarios showed a strong increase in GHG emissions. Aggregate emissions from the energy sector in the ‘without measures’ scenario are projected to grow from 246 Million Tones CO2-eq in 2005 to 616 Million Tones CO2-eq in 2020. Aggregate emissions for the ‘with measures’ scenario are projected to grow from 246 Million Tones CO2-eq in 2005 to 539 Million Tones CO2-eq in 2020. According to the figures presented in the First National Communication, policies and measures which will be implemented until 2020 will result in 76 Million Tones CO2-eq reductions, meaning a 11% deviation from business-as-usual scenario.
The 2020 outlook
Turkey’s First National Communication to UNFCCC in 2007 presents specially commissioned studies on past and predicted climatic trends. Simulations predict a mean annual temperature increase of 2-3oC for Turkey by 2100. In the western half of the country, summer temperatures are expected to increase up to 6oC.
Being an important economic and social sector in Turkey, agriculture will require special attention, since the studies display that it is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Agriculture occupies an important role in the rural economy, and adverse effects of climate change on water resources will be reflected in water scarcity and drought, thus increasing the need for irrigation.
To investigate the likely consequences of climate change on surface waters, a water budget model for the Gediz and Büyük Menderes Basins along the Aegean coast of Turkey was undertaken . The results indicate that by 2050, water runoff will reduce by 35-48%, potential evaporation will increase by 15-17%, crop water demand will increase by 19-23% and surface waters will be reduced by about 35%.
Higher temperatures, greater evapotranspiration and reduced rainfall will also markedly reduce livestock carrying capacity in Turkey. Grazing lands are already under enormous pressure with more than 85% of Turkey’s total land area ‘highly vulnerable to desertification’.
Turkey is taking various actions to fight against negative effects of climate change. These include; management of drought, reduction of erosion, sustainable use of water resources, conservation of biodiversity and enhancing food security.
Existing and planned responses
In order to determine the policies to be followed, measures to be taken and activities to be conducted by Turkey in the field of climate change, the Coordination Board on Climate Change (CBCC) was established. Under the Chairmanship of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, this board is composed of high level representatives (Undersecretary and President) from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, Ministry of Transport and Communication, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Health, Undersecretariat of the State Planning Organization, Undersecretariat of Treasury and the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey. Besides, 10 Technical Working Groups exist under this Board.
Energy sector is responsible for more than 75% of GHG emissions in Turkey. Turkey has been attempting to minimize energy-related GHG emissions through various policies aimed at; improving energy efficiency and conservation, increasing the share of renewable energy sources, switching to low carbon fuels and implement measures to encourage emission reductions. A number of regulative arrangements are carried out to implement the above mentioned policies.
Within the scope of the UNFCCC, Turkey supports to the extent of its available means the global efforts being made for the implementation of the policies and measures that are formulated with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and is determined to continue its economic development within the principle of sustainable development. Although Turkey does not have any quantitative reduction commitment, significant efforts in all sectors have been launched.
Turkey has defined targets for reducing energy intensity. The Renewable Energy Law was introduced in 2005. Energy Efficiency Law has come into force and we are focusing on energy efficiency. In accordance with the By-Law on Heat Insulation in Buildings which is published in 2006, buildings are insulated to reduce heating and cooling needs.
Key initiatives are implemented in the transportation sector, such as enhancement of the quality of fuels consumed in vehicles, the utilization of bio-fuels, the use of vehicles with new engines technologies , the withdrawal of old vehicles, the expansion of metro and light rail network.
Turkey is promoting the use of biomass instead of fossil fuels and use of best available agricultural and irrigation techniques to reduce the emissions and conserve natural resources in agriculture.
Detection and recovery works for methane arising from landfill and refuse tips are going on. Turkey’s aim is to recover methane arising from landfill and refuse tips for energy or CO2.
Turkey is committed to increase sink areas by afforestation and by controlling deforestation. An ambitious afforestation campaign was started with a target of 2.3 million hectares of land in a 5–years period (2008 - 2013). 181.4 Million Tones of CO2 will be sequestered as a result of this campaign.
Regulatory and institutional basis for implementation of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto Protocol was ratified by Ukrainian Parliament in February 2004 and since then became an integral part of Ukrainian legislation. After the Protocol’s coming in force in February 2005 Ukraine is a Party to it, must fulfil relevant commitments and has an opportunity to participate in the flexibility mechanisms envisioned by the Articles 6, 12 and 17.
According to the Kyoto Protocol, within the period 2008-2012, total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ukraine should not exceed the 1990 level (assigned amount or quota for Ukraine). Results from the last GHG inventory showed that in 2004 the emissions made up 45% of the 1990 level. Basic forecasts indicate that in 2012 emissions will not exceed 1990 levels. Consequently, Ukraine may not need to undertake any specific measures to fulfil its commitments to the Kyoto Protocol.
At the same time, it should be noted that existing emissions reduction compared to the base year occurred, mainly, due to deep economic recession of the 90s, consequences of which the country only started to overcome in the recent years. The task is not only just to restore previous production output, but also to bring it to a new-quality level implying more efficient usage of energy resources. As a result, sustainable reduction of energy consumption and corresponding reduction of GHG emissions would be achieved.
Participation in the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol may contribute to intensifying investment activities for modernization of the economy. This is particularly important for the sectors suffering from under financing due to low financial returns, high risks and other factors. At the same time, it is necessary to ensure that transfer of a part of the national assigned amount does not contradict the needs of the economic growth. Hence, establishment of regulatory, institutional and procedural basis for participation in Kyoto Protocol mechanisms should be accompanied by determination of the most expedient strategy for such participation.
Such an approach was adopted as a basis for the National Plan of Measures on Fulfilment of Provisions of Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The plan envisions achievement of the following main results:
• Creating a national inventory system for greenhouse gas emissions and removals;
• Establishing a national GHG registry;
• Creating an infrastructure for joint implementation (JI) projects;
• Development of a national GHG emissions trading system;
• Regular preparation of National Communications;
• Development of a national and regional plans on climate change mitigation;
• Development of a database of environmentally sound technologies.
Joint implementation mechanism
Participation in the JI mechanism is additional to emission mitigation efforts taken by Ukraine on its own, under existing domestic programmes like the Comprehensive National Programme on Energy Conservation . Large-scale activity within the framework of JI mechanism implies realization of hundreds of projects. Given available experience in the clean development mechanism, capacity of the similar to it Track 2 JI mechanism may prove to be inadequate for realisation of such number of projects. That is why the strategic priority for Ukraine is to fulfil, as soon as possible, conditions for participation in the Track 1 of JI mechanism in accordance with decision 16/CP.7.
Ukraine has already met some of the conditions for participation in JI Track 1 and completes meeting the rest of them. Ukraine is a Party to the Kyoto Protocol and has appointed the Ministry of Environmental Protection as a national coordinator for activities associated with the Protocol. The formation of the national inventory system is in process and the submission of the annual emission inventory has been achieved. Creation of the national GHG registry is being completed. Main national procedures regulating activity on JI projects in Ukraine have been developed and adopted.
Existing regulatory documents on JI mechanism include, first of all, a February 2006 decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on the procedure for review, approval and implementation of JI projects. The procedure envisions two stages of JI project approval – receiving a letter of endorsement and a letter approval for the project, and also subsequent monitoring and verification of its results.
Provisions of this Cabinet of Ministers’ decree were elaborated in more detail in the following three orders of the Ministry of Environmental Protection:
Adopted regulations are already being actively applied in practice. Their practical efficiency is testified by the fact that the Ministry of Environmental Protection has already issued 43 letters of endorsement and 4 letters of approval for JI projects. To intensify and facilitate cooperation with potential investors in JI projects, inter-government memoranda of understanding are being concluded. To date, such memoranda are already signed with Canada, Denmark, Netherlands and the World Bank, and are being prepared for signing with France, Austria, Italy and Portugal.
Domestic emissions trading system does not yet exist in Ukraine. Ukraine has no formal international commitments to introduce it, and considering the forecasted surplus of assigned amount as compared to actual emissions over the period of the Kyoto commitments, the development of such system is not an economic necessity. At the same time, implementation of such a system in Ukraine is not excluded currently in connection with the following main factors:
• Necessity to stimulate improvement of energy efficiency to reduce dependence on external supplies of energy resources;
• Appearance of real constraints as a result of possible sale of a considerable portion of the national assigned amount surplus; and
• Possibility to increase economic return from participation in the JI mechanism.
To consider options for a domestic emissions trading system, Ukraine initiated a study on development of the national plan for allocation of emission allowances among enterprises and industrial sectors. The study is considering how the allowance allocation could be accommodated to the plan for the social and economic development of the country, with account of peculiarities of the national economy and other important aspects.
The decision about participation in international emission trading under Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol and its possible volumes will be made on the basis of detailed economic forecasts for 2008-2012 and following periods. Development of such forecasts is prescribed to relevant ministries by special instruction of the Prime-Minister of Ukraine, and is also envisioned as a part of development of the national emission allowances allocation plan.
Key ministry on all the issues related to the Kyoto Protocol is the Ministry of Environmental Protection in accordance with the Decree of the President of Ukraine of 12 September 2005. First of all, this relates to the inventory issues and JI mechanism. Thus, according to the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of 22 February 2006, the Ministry of Environmental Protection is authorised to issue the letters of endorsement and approval for JI projects, determine requirements to project documentation and procedures, and supervise the process of projects implementation. In accordance with the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of 21 April 2006, the Ministry of Environmental Protection is responsible for preparation and submission of annual inventories. According to the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of 10 April 2006, the Ministry of Environmental Protection coordinates preparation of national and regional plans of actions on climate change mitigation.
The Ministry of Environmental Protection also plays a key role in providing for the operation of the national GHG registry. In accordance with the ministry’s order of 1 September 2005 No. 313, a state company, the Centre on Climate Change, is founded by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, State Ecological Institute and Ukrainian Scientific Research Institute of Hydrometeorology. Among others, the Centre is vested with the responsibility for maintaining and operating (administering) the registry.
To ensure inter-agency coordination and supervision of the measures relating to the UNFCCC, the Cabinet of Ministers’ Decree of 14 April 1999 created a special inter-agency commission. Apart from the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the commission is composed of the representatives of the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Fuel and Energy, Ministry of Industrial Policy, Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ministry of Construction, Architecture and Housing and Communal Services, Ministry of Transport and Communication, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Education and Science, State Committee on Statistics, State Committee on Forestry, State Committee on Land Resources, Council of National Security and Defence, National Academy of Sciences, parliamentary commission on environment. The commission is chaired by a Vice-Prime Minister, and commission’s first deputy chairman is the Minister of Environmental Protection of Ukraine. The Inter-agency Commission is a high-level political body, meeting as necessary to resolve strategic issues related to the Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC, coordinate activity of state bodies, consider materials received from foreign governments and international financial institutions, prepare proposals and supervise implementation of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC.
Past trends in greenhouse gas emissions and removals
The largest share of GHG emissions is due to carbon dioxide, which accounted for 77.7% of total emissions in 1990 (without account of removal in Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector). Methane emissions in 1990 were equal to 16.3% and nitrous oxide emissions accounted for 5.9% of total emissions.
In 1990, GHG emissions (with account of СО2 removal in LULUCF) made up about 891.5 mtСО2e. During the period 1990-2004,GHG emissions decreased by a factor of 2.2; of which, carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 2.3 times, methane by 2 times, and nitrous oxide by 2.45 times. GHG emissions reduction was a result of decreasing production output. The results of the analysis of Figure 3.1 illustrate the significant contribution of СО2 emissions to the total balance of GHG emissions (about 75-77.7%), abrupt decrease of these emissions between 1990 and 2000 (by more than a half) as a result of economic recession, and subsequent increase in СО2 emissions in 2002-2004 with economic growth.
The LULUCF sector in Ukraine is a net sink of greenhouse gases. In 1990, this sector removed about 3.7% of total carbon dioxide emissions, and in 2004 – about 7.8%. GHG emissions in energy, industry, solvents, agriculture and waste sectors, which totalled 925.4 mtСО2-e in 1990; exceeded total GHG emissions by the value of net GHG removal in LULUCF sector.
The energy sector is the largest contributor to total GHG emissions and accounted for approximately 74.3% of total emissions in 1990.
Emissions of individual greenhouse gases
Carbon dioxide emissions. СО2 is emitted in energy and industry sectors and also in LULUCF sector (where it is also removed). In 1990, net СО2 emissions (GHG emissions minus GHG removals) in Ukraine were approximately 685.5 million tons, which is over 2.4 times more than net emissions in 2004.
СО2 emissions in energy and industry sectors in 1990 made up 719.4 million tons and were primarily (82.8%) composed of fuel combustion emissions. Such CO2 emissions structure is due to high energy intensity of the economy. Economic recession, which occurred after the collapse of the USSR, resulted in a considerable decrease in energy consumption. It produced a decrease in СО2 emissions by 367 million tons in energy sector from 1990 through 2004. Economic revival in recent years has resulted in some increase of energy consumption and, correspondingly, СО2 emissions.
Methane emissions. СН4 emissions are the second largest contributor to GHG emissions. In 1990, СН4 emissions in Ukraine were 7.2 million ton (151.2 mtСО2-e). The principal sources of СН4 emissions were the energy sector (60% in 1990), agriculture (35%) and waste (4.2%).
Energy sector-related СН4 emissions occur primarily from coal mines and gas leakage during the production, transportation, storage and distribution of natural gas – 57.3% in 1990 and 70.8% in 2004. The major source of СН4 emissions in agriculture is cattle enteric fermentation (22.8% of total СН4 emissions in 1990). Economic recession was accompanied by a decrease in agricultural production, which resulted in a decrease of methane emissions in this sector in 2004 by a factor of 4.3 compared to 1990.
In the waste sector, the largest СН4 emissions occur from anaerobic decomposition of municipal solid waste (3.1% of total СН4 emissions in 1990). Compared to 1990, emissions from MSW landfills increased in 2004 by 73 thousand tons. This is due to large content of degradable organic compounds in the landfill layers formed by the waste disposed from 1990.
Nitrous oxide emissions. In 1990, nitrous oxide emissions in Ukraine were 176.3 thousand ton. The emissions occur in energy, industry, solvents, agriculture, and waste sectors.
The principal sources of nitrous oxide emissions in Ukraine are agricultural soils (74.3% of total N2O emissions in 1990) and manure (14.4%). In energy sector, nitrous oxide emissions (2.9% of total N2O emissions in 1990) result from fuel combustion. In waste sector (2.8%) emissions are released from domestic wastewater, and in industry (4.8%) – from production of nitric and adipic acid. In 2004 as compared to 1990, annual nitrous oxide emissions reduced by 104 thousand tons, mostly due to agricultural production decline.
Forecasted fuel and energy consumption
Forecasting of the volumes of fuel and energy resources consumption took into account the necessity of increasing energy efficiency by 2030 to the levels of industrially developed countries, and tasks connected with strengthening of Ukraine’s energy security.
Coalfields are the major fuel basis of the country. This situation makes it important that rational volumes for coal use be established. Consequently, the forecasts considered the following factors: existence of and prospects for the introduction of new technologies for coal combustion and processing; prospects for technical re-equipment of coal industry enterprises and construction of modern coal mines; resource capacity to increase coal production and its import. In forecasting coal consumption, possibility of reducing the losses during production, processing, transportation and use were also considered. Coal consumption in 2002 is estimated to be 63-92 mtce, which is 1.3-2.5 times greater than in 2005.
In comparison to other fuel types, natural gas is more environmentally safe and a universal energy resource. However, due to limited gas reserves, its domestic production equals approximately one quarter of the total gas consumption. The target of the gas saving strategy is to decrease the GDP gas intensity. It is forecasted that in 2020 gas consumption in Ukraine will make up 56-60 billion m3, i.e., will decrease by 26-32% compared to 2005 level.
Ukraine’s domestic production of oil is insufficient to meet its internal needs. In the future, the share of domestically produced oil in the country’s oil consumption will decrease significantly. In 2020, oil consumption (including gas condensate), together with its processing, is forecasted to be 29-32 million tons compared to 25.7 million tons in 2005.
Forecasted consumption of primary energy resources in 2020 is 212-269 mtce, compared to 205.2 mtce consumed in 2005, or 3-31% greater. It is important to note that in 1990 primary energy consumption totalled 353 mtce. In 2020, with 1.4 times GDP growth compared to 2005, forecasted baseline consumption will increase only by 19%. This may be explained by the impact of two main factors: structural shifts towards more energy and resources efficient economy, and implementation of energy saving policies.
Projections of greenhouse gas emissions
Of the total GHG emissions, more than a half is accounted for by fossil fuel combustion. According to forecasts, total volume of fuel combustion for baseline scenario will increase in 2020 by 13% compared to 2005, including almost doubling of coal combustion, liquid fuels combustion increase by 81% and gas combustion reduction by 33%. As a result, fossil fuel combustion related CO2 emissions under baseline scenario will increase by almost a quarter over this period.
In calculating forecasted values of leaks – methane emissions resulting from coal production and natural gas related activities, both forecasted coal consumption and technical improvement of coal production and processing, leading to relative decrease of leaks in time were considered. As a result of technical progress in coal industry, increased utilization of coalbed methane, upgrades of the gas transmission and distribution systems, etc. under the baseline scenario, leaks are estimated to increase by 4 mtСО2-e, or by 7% in 2020 compared to 2005.
GHG emissions from industrial processes are projected to increase with steadily decreasing growth rates due to structural changes in favour of accelerated development of processing industries, accompanied by reduction in GDP’s materials and metals intensity. As a result, industrial emissions will increase in 2020 by a quarter compared to 2005.
It is expected that GHG emissions from agricultural activities will be changing in line with changes in the gross added value in this sector and will increase by a factor of 2.5.
Methane emissions from municipal solid waste and wastewater until 2020 will be practically unchanged (about 8.9 mtСО2-e), that is, at the level of average annual emissions over 2000-2005.
In total, GHG emissions in СО2 equivalent for the sectors of Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol (excluding combustion) are estimated to increase from 2005 through 2040 by a factor of 1.4 or by 75 million tons. Share of these sectors in total emissions will grow from 43% to 46% over this period.
Projected values of total GHG emissions in percentage of 1990 level for the three scenarios of economic development are shown on the Figure 2.3. Figure 2.4 presents projections of total GHG emissions with breakdown by Kyoto Protocol Annex A sectors for the baseline scenario.
According to the above projections of total GHG emissions, Ukraine will fulfill its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, that is, in the first commitment period (2008-2012) will not exceed its aggregate GHG emissions in 1990 multiplied by five, since in this period annual emissions will not exceed 55% of the 1990 level. Moreover, as follows from presented projected data, Ukraine until 2020 will not exceed the 1990 level of GHG emissions even in case of optimistic scenario of economic development accompanied by the largest emissions.